NFL Week 2 Betting Trends: Where Is The Money Going?
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Week 2 of the NFL betting season began with the Vikings rallying late for a push/backdoor cover depending on where you shopped and when you bet. The line on Thursday night’s game opened at Philly -6, spread to Philly -7.5 after Week 1, before setting back to -6 at kickoff.
The 34-28 Eagles victory gave us our first spread push of 2023. Meanwhile, the aftershocks of Aaron Rodgers’ season-ending injury suffered Monday night continue to reverberate across betting markets. Here’s a look at the Jets’ futures before and after Rodgers went down until next season – if not for good.
Jets Futures Odds Pre #AaronRodgers Injury+250 AFC East 🧢👕 +900 AFC Title 🏆+1800 Super Bowl 💍Post #AaronRodgers Injury+600 AFC East 🧢👕+3000 AFC Title 🏆+6000 Super Bowl 💍via @DKSportsbook @bookies pic.twitter.com/FFLGbay7FC— Bill Speros (@billsperos) September 12, 2023
The line for the Jets-Cowboys national CBS game at 4:25 p.m. (all times always Eastern) Sunday has seen a similar seismic shift. Dallas opened as -3 home-team favorite before Week 1. The line stiffened to -2.5 after the Cowboys demolished Big Blue 40-0 at MetLife in Week 1.
Once Rodgers went down Monday night, that game, along with the AFC Championship and AFC East lines came down. The Week 2 Jets-Dallas line bounced to Dallas -7.5 on Tuesday morning. It peaked at -9.5 by Tuesday afternoon. It remains at Dallas -9.5 at FanDuel. The Jets carry a -115 price on that number, while the Cowboys are -105. The game’s total has tumbled from 45.5 to 38.5.
In terms of the moneyline, Dallas is -405 (up from -165), while the Jets are +320, a marked fall from +140. Zack Wilson has clearly yet to inspire bettors. We’re not sure about his Jets teammates.
RELATED: NFL Week 2 Best Bets To Back Today
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Follow The Money: Week 2 Line Movement
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers upset the now 0-2 Vikings on the road in Week 1. Tampa Bay’s number was as low as +7 during the preseason, before the Tom Brady-less Bucs closed at +5.5. The Bucs play host to the Bears at Raymond James Stadium Sunday. Even though Brady was last seen playing basketball with his son Benji on social media, the Bucs continue to lure action.
This is one of two games in Week 2 in which the betting favorite has flipped. The Bucs opened up as 1.5-point home underdogs, a price we found too tempting to pass upon. Following Week 1, in which the Bears got smoked by Packers in Chicago, this number shifted 4 points. Tampa Bay is now a 2.5-point home favorite.
The Browns and Steelers renew their blood-feud Monday night. This game opened with the home-town Steelers as slim one-point favorites. Things flipped after Week 1. The Steelers got wrecked by Brock Purdy the 49ers.
The Browns trounced Cincinnati to win Round 1 in the Battle of Ohio. This line now has the Browns as 2.5-point road favorites. Here are the Week 2 lines listed by their opening number and current price as of Friday morning.
| Game | Opening Line | Current Line |
|---|---|---|
| GB-ATL | GB -1.5 | ATL -1.5 |
| SEA-DET | DET -2.5 | DET -4.5 |
| CHI-TB | CHI -1.5 | TB -2.5 |
| BAL-CIN | CIN -3.5 | CIN -3 |
| KC-JAX | KC -3 | KC -3.5 |
| LAC-TEN | LAC 3 | LAC -3.5 |
| LV-BUF | BUF -8 | BUF 8.5 |
| IND-HOU | HOU -1.5 | HOU -1.5 |
| SF-LAR | SF -4.5 | SF -7 |
| NYG-AZ | NYG -4.5 | NYG -4.5 |
| WAS-DEN | DEN -3.5 | DEN -3.5 |
| NYJ-DAL | DAL -3 | DAL -9.5 |
| MIA-NE | MIA -2.5 | MIA -3 |
| NO-CAR | NO -2.5 | NO -3 |
| CLE-PIT | PIT -1 | CLE -2.5 |
Follow The Money: The Books Speak
At BetMGM, the public is heavily invested in the Cowboys, especially in terms of parlays. Sharps are banking on the Chiefs to avoid an 0-2 start with a win and cover in warmth and humidity of Duval County.
Overall, the public is most invested in the Dolphins rolling into Gillette Stadium Sunday night and beating the Patriots. The Dolphins at -3 are the third-most bet team on the site. The Chiefs (-3.5) are tops, while the Lions -4.5 at home against Seattle is No. 2
“The biggest need for the sportsbook will likely be the Patriots on Sunday Night Football. New England pulling the upset would cancel many parlays,” Seamus Magee, Trading Team Lead, BetMGM, said Friday.
Week 1 was the first in NFL history in which (legal) betting was available in the Bay State.
More Week 1 NFL Betting Insight🤯 9.2M geolocation transactions made in Massachusetts ⏱️ 4200 per second nationwide after 1st TD of season Thursday📲 97% of online betting transactions made on mobile devices🤓 75% made using iOS (Mac/iPhone) via @GeoComply pic.twitter.com/EDPJpjbrfP— Bill Speros (@billsperos) September 13, 2023
As legal betting continues to proliferate, books are becoming more reliant on parlay income from each passing week. Single-Game Parlays have proven to be immensely successful in terms of filling their coffers. When tracking money each week, as much attention to where the books fall on parlays is as important as those straight-up wagers.
Here’s the rundown from BetMGM.
Most Bet Games (Tickets)
- Lions-Seahawks
- Chiefs-Jaguars
- Dolphins-Patriots
Most Bet Games (Handle)
- Chiefs -3.5
- Lions -4.5
- Dolphins -3
Most Bet Teams (Tickets)
- Chiefs -3.5
- Lions -4.5
- Bears +2.5
Most Bet Overs (Tickets)
- 49ers-Rams 44.5
- Seahawks-Lions 47
- Chiefs-Jaguars 51
Most Bet Unders (Tickets)
- Jets-Cowboys 38.5
- Ravens-Bengals 46.5
- Browns-Steelers 38.5
Most Bet Player Props (Tickets)
- Courtland Sutton
Under 51.5 receiving yards (-115) - Brock Purdy
Over 229.5 passing yards (-115) - James Conner
Under 64.5 rushing yards (-115) - Nico Collins
Over 46.5 receiving yards (-115) - Kenneth Walker
Over 60.5 rushing yards (-115)
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