Week 9 NFL Betting Recap: Books Ride Wave Of Big-Name Upsets
Bill Speros | 9 mins
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Multiple brand-name favorites failed to cover in Week 9 of the NFL betting season, as underdogs showed bark and bite in going 9-4 ATS over the first 13 games. The nation’s top betting sites and best sportsbooks rode a tsunami of cash in winning the week.
Even more devastating for the betting public was the fact the Cowboys (-10, -500), Bills (-14.5, -1250), Raiders (-3, -167), Rams (-7.5, -400) and Saints (-6.5, -275) lost outright. Those losses demolished betting accounts and parlays from coast-to-coast. Underdogs hold a 76-57-1 (56.7%) edge ATS thus far in 2021.
“Cowboys, Bills and the Rams losing was big for us. Anytime you can have popular favorites going down outright, it will crush a significant amount of our parlay liability. All in all, it was a solid Sunday.” said WynnBet Sportsbook senior Trader Motoi Pearson.
Among the four games that carried the most exposure for the books, three landed on the wrong side for the betting public. Those predisposed to fading the public had a very good day after getting a thumped for nearly a month.
This was the first time all season the Cowboys had failed to cover. Dallas was the lone unbeaten ATS team left in the NFL.
’A Very Good Sunday’ For The Books
“It was a very good NFL Sunday. The early slate of games was certainly not kind to parlay and teaser bettors. You had a number of upsets like the Jaguars beating the Bills and the Falcons beating the Saints and the Broncos beating the Cowboys,” said Borgata AC Director of Race and Sports Book Thomas Gable.
“When bigger favorites lose outright like that, you know the books are going to do well. Although parlays and teasers don’t make up the majority of our handle, we won some of the bigger decisions we had, like Miami covering and Cleveland beating the Bengals. Overall, it was a very good Sunday for us.”
The Ravens (-5.5), Raiders (-3) and Bills absorbed more than 75% of the NFL spreads handle in failing to cover, according to our consensus of the handles at Caesars, BetMGM, bet365, Resorts, PointsBet, SugarHouse, 888, FOX Bet and DraftKings.
Here’s a look:
|MIN at BAL||BAL -5.5||82%||BAL, 34-31 (OT)|
|BUF at JAX||BUF -14.5||80%||JAX 9-6|
|LV at NYG||LV -3||LV 75%||NYG 23-16|
Individual books saw some lopsided wins.
At FanDuel, 99% of the spread handle was on Cincinnati. The Bengals closed -1.5 before suffering a 41-16 beatdown at the hands of the Browns.
Adding to the crazy, Josh Allen of the Jaguars intercepted Josh Allen of the Bills.
"The dog resurgence continued in earnest. In particular, no one believed in Denver, Cleveland or Jacksonville, who all covered by multiple touchdowns. Buffalo imploding was the best result of the day for the book - bettors will likely be despising both Josh Allens for a while," said PointsBet Jay Croucher, Director of Trading.
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Chiefs Continue ATS Woes
Even without Aaron Rodgers, the Green Bay Packers (+7) snagged a nifty back-door cover at Kansas City on Sunday, losing 13-7. It marked the 16th time in the last 20 games – including the postseason – in which the Chiefs failed to cover ATS. Green Bay QB Jordan Love looked bewildered throughout most of the game in making his first NFL start. But he and the Packers managed their lone scoring drive on their final possession, finally reaching the end zone on a 20-yard pass to Allen Lazard. The Chiefs then ran out the clock to extend their terrible run ATS.
This game was a two-way play for the public. Green Bay held a 52-48 consensus edge on the spread. The line ballooned from Kansas City -1 to -8 last week after news broke of Rodgers’ positive COVID-19 test. A push-back from the sharps in Las Vegas nudged the line back to -7 by the kick. Before Rodgers was knocked out, the game had a Super Bowl preview vibe.
If the playoffs began today, the Chiefs (5-4 and above .500 for the first time this season) would be on the outside, as one of four other 5-4 teams losing out to the 5-4 Patriots on the tiebreaker. The Packers survived the week as the No. 3 overall seed in the NFC, thanks to losses by the Rams and Cowboys.
Week 9 Betting Trends
NFC Extends Edge Over AFC
There were eight interconference games this week. Pittsburgh and Chicago play Monday night. After Sunday’s results, the NFC is 24-20 ATS against the AFC thus far in 2021. In the 37 games, the under has hit 23 times.
Here’s a look at how NFC vs AFC contests fared in Week 9, listed with betting public consensus on the spread and the total:
|NE at CAR||NE -3.5||73% NE||U 41||NE, 24-6|
|LV at NYG||LV -2.5||80% LV||U 46||NYG, 23-16|
|MIN at BAL||BAL -6||79% BAL||O 50||BAL, 34-31|
|DEN at DAL||DAL -10||63% DAL||U 49.5||DEN, 30-16|
|LAC at PHI||LAC -2.5||80% LAC||O 50.5||LAC, 27-24|
|GB at KC||KC -7.5||62% GB||U 47.5||KC, 13-7|
|TEN at LAR||LAR -7.5||74% LAR||U 54||TEN, 28-16|
|CHI at PIT||PIT -6.5||55% PIT||40||TBD|
NFL CHAMPION: Super Bowl 56 Odds For All 32 NFL teams plus NFL Futures Odds
The 2021 season continued to serve up both blowouts and nail-biters in Week 9. Thus far, there have been 24 games with a final margin of at least 21 points. In-game bettors have had a wild ride, as well, with 34 games decided in the final two minutes of regulation or in overtime. That’s the most such games through Week 9 all-time, according to the NFL.
The year of the late comeback continues. There have been 40 games – including three in Week 9 – won by a team that trailed in the fourth quarter.
Byes In Week 9: Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Football Team
QBs ATS: Every NFL Quarterback Ranked Against The Spread
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It’s good to be the King
Despite not playing this week, Tom Brady's MVP odds went from +550 ➡️ +350 👀— Caesars Sportsbook (@CaesarsSports) November 8, 2021
He is now the favorite to win the award for the first time this season 🏈🏆 pic.twitter.com/3FKd2tOOE6
Tom Brady and the Buccaneers picked up a game on New Orleans, Dallas, Green Bay and the LA Rams in the NFC playoff chase while on the bye. Brady still leads the NFL with 25 TD passes. And yes, he’s still 44.
Week 9 Rookie Report
Not including Love, who is in his second season, two rookie quarterbacks started in Week 9 on Sunday. Trevor Lawrence helped Jacksonville stun Buffalo. Mac Jones won his fifth game as New England rolled through Carolina. Justin Fields starts for the Bears Monday night.
Here’s our Week 9 rookie breakdown:
|JAX||Lawrence||15/26||118||0||0||JAX +14.5||9-6, JAX|
|NE||Jones||12/18||139||1||1||NE -3.5||24-6, NE|
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Major Week 9 Wagers
There were Big Bets aplenty in Week 9. Here are some notable net wins and losses:
- Loss $64,661.25: CIN -1.5 (-114) FanDuel
- Win $747K: Titans ML over Rams (+300) Caesars
- Win $472,727.27: Titans +7.5 over Rams (-110) Caesars
- Win $381,181.82: Under 53.5 Rams-Titans (-110) Caesars
Plays Of The Day
Break up the Jags.
I was today years old when I learned betting Jags ML can help make you money 😂— FanDuel Sportsbook (@FDSportsbook) November 8, 2021
$40 ➡️ $1,109 just like that
(via IG / baileyreardon13) pic.twitter.com/hOhTValtxJ
Meet Younghoe Koo's second-biggest fan.
$101 ➡️ $24.3K in a single Sunday 🤯— FanDuel Sportsbook (@FDSportsbook) November 8, 2021
(via IG / jaivikptl) pic.twitter.com/Vv4pfEO9Fe
Monday Night Preview: Bears at Steelers
Check out the latest Bears vs. Steelers odds ahead of the matchup in Week 9.
The Pittsburgh Steelers sit on the edge of playoff contention in the AFC at 4-3 after winning three straight. The Bears’ focus has shifted to developing Justin Fields into a legit NFL quarterback. Chicago (3-5) has seen its postseason hopes all but erased in the tough-as-iron NFC.
This line as widened on betting apps since it opened at Pittsburgh -5. The public is split on this one, with 51% of the spread and 53% of the moneyline betting handle backing the hometown Steelers.
RELATED: Bears vs Steelers MNF Betting Predictions & Preview
All odds are current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review and our FanDuel sportsbook review. You can also check out our DraftKings vs FanDuel comparison of the two books.