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Bill Speros for Bookies.com

By Bill Speros | | 10 mins

Week 9 NFL Betting Analysis & Takeaways: Surprises Leave Bettors In NY State Of Mind

Week 9 NFL Betting Analysis & Takeaways: Surprises Leave Bettors In NY State Of Mind
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The NFL betting season reaches its halfway point this week. It’s been a year of underdogs, unders, and an overwhelming number of suprises on the field and in across your favorite betting site.

One end of the extreme has Philadelphia Eagles perfect heading into Week 10, and the Seattle Seahawks sitting atop the NFC West. The other end has the Green Bay Packers five games back of the Minnesota Vikings in the loss column, and the Super Bowl champion LA Rams tied for last place. 

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Oddsmakers and favorite NFL spread betting enthusiasts have not been spared. Underdogs are cashing at a 55.5% clip this season (75-55-5) through the Sunday night game in Week 10. 

If you just measure them against the favorites and throw out the ties, the number spikes to 58.3%. That winning percentage is better than 22 of the NFL’s 32 team ATS. If that were to hold, it would be the ‘dogs best run against the line since 2002.

Using our system of betting $100 on underdogs each week of the season, you’d be up $1,507 on the season.  Underdogs are 48-73-1 straight up. Depending on where you get your moneylines, you’d be up about $1,000 backing underdogs straight-up this season.

Top Surprises Thus Far … Plus And Minus

Week 9 NFL Betting Analysis & Takeaways: Surprises Leave Bettors In NY State Of Mind 1
 

We checked in with several oddsmakers and sportsbook officials at top betting sites to see what they have seen on the ground and in the digital realm in terms positive and negative surprises thus far, and what bettors can expect between now and the Super Bowl. 

SuperBook Sports VP of Risk Management Jeff Sherman

“The two New York teams in the positive and the Packers on the negative.” (The biggest surprise in the second half) Buffalo not winning the AFC East. They are power rated the best team in the NFL but have a marginal lead in the division and may get caught by Miami.” 

WynnBET Senior Trader Chris Youn

“For the good, it has to be the Jets, Giants and Seahawks. (Coach Robert) Saleh has his defense making plays to stay in games. Somehow, the Giants keep executing on both sides of the ball, especially in the fourth quarter. Geno (Smith) in Seattle with the new OC Shane Waldron has been pretty amazing considering the youth on its roster. 

"The bad has to be the Packers and Rams. Both teams just can't make the simple and crucial plays on offense, and both defenses have been on the field for way too long this year because of the poor offenses.” 

 

Borgata AC Race And Sports Director Thomas Gable,

“The biggest surprise has been the Seattle Seahawks.  They are in first place in a division that they were picked to finish last, and they seemed to have made a great decision in trading away Russell Wilson.  

"They have a balanced offense and their defense has turned things around nicely from the beginning of the year. There are a lot of good stories with some surprising starts by teams this year like the Jets and Giants. But Seattle tops them. The biggest surprise to watch for in the second half will be to see if any of these teams can sustain their momentum and challenge for their respective divisions or make the playoffs.  The teams that you are used to seeing challenge for supremacy (Green Bay, Tampa Bay and the defending champs- LA Rams) could all end up missing the playoffs.” 

BetMGM Sports Trader Christian Cipollini

“I could pick about 15 surprises at this point. No one would have guessed the Bucs, Packers, Rams and Broncos would all be struggling. The biggest surprise is the Seahawks, this team was expected to be one of the worst in football and are showing to be a legit threat to win the NFC West. The biggest surprise to watch for in the second half of the season is the two New York teams. The Giants and Jets have had strong starts to the season but can either make the playoffs.”

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Week 9 Betting Recap By The Numbers 

The chalk ran deep against the moneyline in Week 9. At DraftKings,  the nation’s second largest book lost on five of its top six moneyline exposures in terms of handle percentage. 

The Patriots (92%), Bengals (88%), Chiefs (88%), Vikings (85%), and Dolphins (83%) all won outright. Only the Bills (87%) delivered some relief for the betting establishment. The other big winners for the public were the Buccaneers and Seahawks’ moneyline and the Titans spread (+13.5 at Kansas City). 

The nation’s books and online betting properties saw multiple parlays hit thanks to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers holding off the Rams outright 16-13 in a game that hovered between 2 and 3 points all week before setting at 3 points at kickoff. The week also saw a push in the Falcons-Chargers games. Atlanta was a 3-point home underdog and lost to the Chargers on a last-second field goal 20-17.

The numerologists had a field day with four games (Jets over Bills; Vikings over Commanders; Falcons-Chargers; Chiefs over Titans in OT) ending in a 20-17 score. Two other games were also decided by 3 points. 

The Borgata rebounded from a “terrible college day.” Once again, East Coast bettors rode the Gang Green Wave as the Jets beat Buffalo outright in a stunner. 

“We opened the Bills -13 and it was bet down to -10 ½ by kick off.  Just a lot of Jets money overall.  Green Bay losing outright was our best result. The Tampa-LA game, despite it landing right on Tampa -3, (gave us) big decision on the total in that game, which went our way," Gable said. 

Here is where things stand throughout the season with underdogs and the under on the points total. 

 

Underdogs Win %Favorites Win %TieWin %
7555.5 55 40.853.7
Under Total Win %Over Total Win %TieWin %
7958.5 54 40.0 2 1.5

(All Numbers Through 135 Games, including 13 of 14 Games In Week 9)

Here's a look at the top moneymakers for the betting public at DraftKings in Week 9, in terms of moneyline/spread and prop wagers: 

Rank WagerOdds
1. Chiefs ML -900
2.Buccaneers ML-161
3.Jets ML+335
4.Seahawks ML+110
5.Titans Spread+13.5 (-110)
Rank TD PropsOdds
1. Mecole Hardman First TD Scorer+1800
2. Austin Ekeler Anytime TD Scorer-150
3. Derrick Henry Anytime TD Scorer-105
4. Justin Jefferson Anytime TD Scorer-110
5. Justin Jefferson Anytime TD Scorer+105
Rank Non-TD PropsOdds
1. Derrick Henry Over 87.5 Rushing Yards -135
2.Patrick Mahomes Over 271.5 Passing Yards-115
3.Travis Kelce Over 70.5 Receiving Yards-125
4.Travis Kelce Over 6.5 Receptions-130
5. Mecole Hardman Over 26.5 Receiving Yards-110

Big Game Big Bets Ahead Of Super Bowl 57

Multiple large wagers have begun to drop onSuper Bowl 57. The Bills are +275 to win the Super Bowl at BetMGM, while the Eagles are the pick out of the NFC at +500 to capture their second Super Bowl ring in five years. 

BetMGM revealed some big-money NFL futures bets on the Big Game this week. A BetMGM customer in Tennessee wagered $100,000 wager on the Dolphins at +3000 to win their first Super Bowl since 1974 (payout is $3,000,000). 

 

Here are some other notable Super Bowl bets at BetMGM:
Team Bet Odds Winnings
Dolphins$100,000+3000 $3,000,000
Saints$25,000+4000 $1,000,000
Falcons$4,000+25000 $1,000,000
Jets$5,000+15000 $750,000
Dolphins$10,000+4000 $400,000
Seahawks$1,300+20000 $260,000
Bears$1,000 +15000 $150,000
Bills$20,000 +600 $120,000

Super Bowl 57 will be played at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona on February 12, 2023. The game will air on FOX with kickoff set for 6:30 p.m. Eastern. Rihanna will star in the halftime show.

Week 9 Major Wins & Losses

There were Big Bets aplenty on betting apps in Week 9. Here were some notable winners and losers. 

 

  • Book: Caesars Sportsbook (Nev.)
  • Bet: Patriots -5.5 (-110)
  • Odds: -110
  • Wager: $500,000
  • Payout: $ 954,545.45 

  • Book: BetMGM
  • Bet: Colts ML
  • Odds: +185
  • Wager: $180,000
  • Loss: $180,000

  • Book: BetMGM
  • Bet: Falcons ML
  • Odds: +140
  • Wager: $100,000
  • Loss: $100,000

  • Book: Ceasars
  • Bet: Titans Win SB 57
  • Odds: +6000
  • Wager: $1,400
  • Potential Win: $84,000

Plays Of The Day

$30 million? I’d collect in person, too. 

How do you like that!

Saturday is for the Colts!

About the Author

Bill Speros for Bookies.com
Bill Speros
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.