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Saints at Seahawks Picks, Predictions & MNF Betting Preview NFL Week 7

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 9 mins

Saints at Seahawks Picks, Predictions & MNF Betting Preview NFL Week 7

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The New Orleans Saints, fresh off a bye week owning a 3-2 record, head northwest to face a Seattle Seahawks team learning to forge on without leader Russell Wilson. Seattle (2-4) lost their first game without the star QB, 23-20 in OT at Pittsburgh, adding a glimpse of optimism that the season is not lost.

Betting sites and betting apps have New Orleans as a five-point favorite, with an Over/Under of 43.5 points in the latest Saints vs. Seahawks odds. But do the NFL spreads for Monday night show any value?

Check out the latest Saints vs. Seahawks odds ahead of the matchup on Monday Night Football.

Saints vs. Seahawks Key Matchups

Alvin Kamara vs. Seahawks Pass D: Kamara leads the Saints in receptions and targets, and is consistently one of the top pass-catching backs in the league. Seattle allows the fifth-most receptions to RBs.

Metcalf/Lockett vs. Saints DBs: No pair of WR teammates catch more passes. New Orleans allows the sixth-most catches and yards to wideouts.

Geno Smith vs. Saints Ball Hawkers: Smith has 37 career INTs in 32 career starts. The Saints have nine INTs in five games, tied for the most per game in the NFL.

RELATED: NFL Week 7 Odds & Betting Lines For All Games

5 Key Saints vs. Seahawks Stats

3.4: The combined sacks per game by the Seahawks and Saints defenses; each team ranks in the bottom six of the NFL.

4: Saints QB Jameis Winston has tossed four TDs for every one INT so far this season (12/3). The 4-to-1 ratio would be by far the best of his career. Right now the best is 1.7-to-1 in 2017 (19 TD/11 INT).

13: Total rushing attempts this season by Seahawks RBs DeeJay Dallas and Travis Homer. They could be the top backs on the depth chart with banged-up RBs Chris Carson (out) and Alex Collins (injured in Week 6).

100: The yards per game difference by Jameis Winston, between this season (178) and his career vs. the Seahawks (278).

433.2: Yards per game allowed by the Seahawks this season. Not only is that the highest total in the NFL, it would be the highest total since 2012 if it sticks.

Saints vs. Seahawks Weather Forecast

Rain during the day and more rain at night are in Monday’s forecast in Seattle. Not just rain, but cold rain, with a high of just 56 before dipping into the low 50s/high 40s during the game. Bring your waterproof blankets.

Saints vs. Seahawks Player Props

Geno Smith, Over 205.5 Pass Yards

Odds: -110 at FOX Bet

Smith was a mediocre game-manager in Seattle’s 23-20 loss to the Steelers last week. But he still passed the ball 32 times and finished with 209 yards, one TD and no INTs. The Saints are as good as they come vs. the run but are allowing 285 yards through the air per game.

Alvin Kamara, Over 124.5 Total Yards

Odds: -115 at DraftKings

After a relatively subpar start to the season, Kamara has been a consistent weapon, totaling 118, 120 and 122 total yards for the Saints. He likes to showcase his skills in prime-time, and he’s a rushing/receiving talent – the Seahawks rank 30th vs. the run and 29th vs. the pass. He can do a lot in both categories.

Tyler Lockett, Over 44.5 Pass Yards

Odds: -115 at DraftKings

In Smith’s first start, Lockett and D.K. Metcalf each had seven targets. Lockett only secured two of them for 35 yards, but that reception rate should improve. At that average, it would only take three catches. Lockett has torched New Orleans over his career, averaging 7.5 catches for 93 yards.

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Geno Smith, Under 10.5 Rushing Yards

Odds: -118 at FOX Bet

Smith ran for 23 yards in his first game this season, but that was an anomaly. He gained minus-1 yards vs. Pittsburgh last week. He hasn’t rushed for more than 12 yards in a season since 2015. The Saints have allowed about 20 yards rushing from QBs this season but all were closer to dual-threat than Smith.

DK Metcalf, Score TD

Odds: +130 at FOX Bet

Metcalf has four TDs in six games so far, including both of the Seahawk’s scores vs. the Rams two weeks ago and one in each of Seattle’s victories. Metcalf has half of all the WR red zone targets for the Seahawks all season.

RELATED: NFL Week 7 Picks & Best Bets For Every Game

Saints vs. Seahawks Moneyline

The Saints are at -250 on the moneyline, meaning it would take a $250 wager to win $100 in profit. Conversely, the underdog Seahawks are +200 (a $100 wager means $200 in profit). It’s a moneyline spot that sportsbooks are enticing fans of both sides to consider.

I like the Saints in this one, in every facet but one. It’s not easy to go into Seattle and leave with a victory, especially in prime time. We saw what happened to the mighty Bills in Tennessee last Monday night with similar moneyline numbers. It’s enough to stay away from a straight-up wager.

Saints vs. Seahawks Point Spread

The Seahawks have scored 20 or less in three of their last four games, showing that missing Wilson isn’t their only offensive issue. Seattle’s pass game was not good for three-plus quarters vs. the Steelers last week. The run game got going but Alex Collins was injured and Chris Carson remains out. The Saints also rank second vs. the run.

The Saints are at -5 on the point spread. While the Seahawks need to heal, the Saints are coming off a bye week. They own a 67% cover rate after byes under Sean Payton. Aside from the location of the game, the Saints have huge advantages at key spots. For those looking for a little Monday night NFL betting action, laying the points with New Orleans is the best side. You can get the Saints -4.5 (-110) at DraftKings.

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Saints vs. Seahawks Totals

The Over/Under for Monday Night Football sits at 43.5, among the lowest totals for NFL Week 7. There’s no surprise on the lower O/U with Geno Smith’s production potential in major doubt, especially against a Saints defense that allows just 18.2 ppg, third-lowest in the league.

Trends among the Week 7 NFL picks point to the Under as well. It has cashed in the last four Seahawks games and the last six following a straight-up loss. On the flip side, the Under is 10-2 in the last 12 for New Orleans coming off a win. New Orleans has benefited from error, ranking 15th in scoring despite only 28th in yards. Side with the Under on Monday. You can get Under 43.5 (-110) at BetMGM.

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.