Tua Tagovailoa and the surging Miami Dolphins look to keep the momentum going, and continue their challenge for homefield advantage in the AFC Playoffs, when they host Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans in a Week 14 Monday Night Football matchup. 

At 9-3, the Dolphins already own a three-game lead over the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East and are tied with the Baltimore Ravens atop the conference. They carry a three-game win streak into the home matchup with the Titans (4-8), who are 0-6 on the road. 

The latest NFL odds NFL odds have Miami is favored by a solid 13.5 points over the Titans. The Over/Under is set at 46.5 points. 

Bookies.com veteran NFL handicapper Adam Thompson – who has hit on a whopping 62-64% of his NFL picks three years running, reveals his plays for the prime time matchup. 

Titans vs. Dolphins Odds

Titans vs. Dolphins Point Spread

All but one of Miami’s home wins have been by 14 or more, while half of Tennessee’s road losses have been by 14 or more. That includes the last two games to the Jaguars and Buccaneers. The Dolphins have their full arsenal of weapons and the Titans’ top defender (Justin Simmons) is out, making a pretty bad defense exceptionally so. 

Miami’s rush defense ranks No. 3 at home (3.1 yards per carry), while Tennessee’s pass defense ranks 31st in yards per attempt. It all adds up to another blowout Dolphins win, and another blowout Titans road loss. Our favorite play of Monday night is Dolphins ATS.

Titans vs. Dolphins Over/Under

Titans road games have hit Over the number just once in seven games. That’s because the team averages a hilariously bad 12.3 ppg on the road, less than half of what is does at home (25.4 ppg). It’s inexplicable and seemingly impossible to assume that trend, hence the constant Unders. 

And it’s part of why we’re siding with the Over, even this relatively high number. The Dolphins average 38.8 ppg at home and feasts on bad opponents – Tennessee’s D isn’t horrible, but not great, either ranking 23rd vs. the pass and bottom-10 in yards allowed per play.  The Over is the lean for Monday in Miami. 

Titans vs. Dolphins Moneyline

Miami is -800 on the moneyline, so it would take a wager of $800 to win $100 in profit. That’s a big number is indicates it’s highly likely to hit (88.5%). But this is the NFL, and major upsets happen. 

We’re not thinking it will, but it’s not worth such a major financial risk this time. We’re not backing Tennessee at +550, either. Stick to other wagers for this one.

Titans vs. Dolphins Top Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa, Over 40.5 Longest Completion

Odds: -120 at Caesars

When Tua goes long, the Dolphins win games. In fact, they haven’t lost when he completes a pass over 32 yards or longer. He’s gone 41-plus in six games so far and the Titans have allowed 10 receptions of 40 or more, including two vs. Gardner Minshew and the Colts last week. 

The Dolphins have been public about getting Tyreek Hill to 2,000 yards. He’s the prime candidate, but Jaylen Waddle and even De’Von Achane out of the backfield could bust loose at any moment. Take the Over on a Tua big play at Caesars. 

Chigoziem Okonkwo, Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

Odds: -120 at BetMGM

The Titans’ tight end has become a bigger part of the offense lately, hauling in 62 and 45 yards. He should get more opportunities against a Dolphins defense that is elite at covering the sidelines but not so much down the middle. 

Miami allows 50.7 ypg to TEs this season. Look for the still-learning Will Levis to check down more than usual, and take the Okonkow Over at BetMGM.