Nothing is certain except death, taxes, and Joey Chestnut and Miki Sudo winning Nathan’s Famous 4^th of July Hot Dog Eating Contest. At least that appeared to be true until news struck that Chestnut will not compete this year because his sponsorship deal with Impossible Foods is in conflict with Nathan’s and Major League Eating.

With the 16-time champion ruled out, this should be the most competitive men’s hot dog eating contest that we’ve seen in years, which should lead to an increase in the already growing competitive eating markets at legal online sportsbooks. In the women’s contest, Sudo is showing no signs of slowing down, and the odds imply that she should cruise to her 10^th title.

Let's take a look at our 2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest picks and best bets. All odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook and are current at time of publication.

Men’s Contest

Back in 2000, Japanese eater Kazutoyo Arai won the contest by eating 25 1/8 hot dogs in 12 minutes. In 2001 the contest changed forever, when another Japanese eater named Takeru Kobayashi shattered the world record by eating 50 hot dogs. Kobayashi dominated for several years until finally meeting his match when American Joey Chestnut set the new world record at 66 hot dogs eaten in 2007. Since then, only Matt Stonie (2015) has defeated Chestnut. 

Without Chestnut, Kobayashi or Stonie competing, we will see a first-time winner raise the Mustard Belt in 2024. Geoffrey Esper is the favorite, as he has finished in a distant second place each of the past three years. But with my money, I’m backing James Webb who came in third place in 2022 and 2023 and has had an impressive run of record-setting eating performances since February.

James Webb Total Hot Dogs Eaten

Last year, Webb set a personal best with 47 hot dogs. Though I don’t have statistical evidence to back it up, I believe that the eaters will have some extra motivation to push for “one more” hot dog, knowing that Chestnut isn’t on the other end of the table beating them by 10-plus. 

I project that the winning number will be 49 or 50 hot dogs eaten. If you like James Webb to win or even take second place, you have to like him to eat over 47.5 hot dogs.

Women’s Winner

Since her debut in 2014, Miki Sudo is still undefeated, and the second-place finishers haven’t come close. Only two contestants appear to have a glimmer of hope in dethroning Sudo: Michelle Lesco (+2500 in 2024), who won the title in 2021 when Sudo was out due to her pregnancy and Mayoi Ebihara (+750 to win in 2024), who ate 33.5 hot dogs in her 2023 debut. 

In 2019, Sudo only ate 31 hot dogs to claim the win. If Ebihara can take a step forward or Lesco could match her career-best and catch Sudo on an “off” day, this competition could be much closer than the odds indicate. I see value in sprinkling a few dollars on The Field.

Miki Sudo Total Hot Dogs Eaten

Sudo smashed the women’s world record in 2020 with 48.5 hot dogs eaten, but it’s important to recognize that came under controlled conditions, as the contest was held indoors without spectators due to COVID-19 restrictions. Since then, she missed the 2021 event and finished with 40 in 2022 and 39.5 in 2023. The forecast on Coney Island doesn’t look so favorable, as 70% humidity could slow eaters down. I’ll take the under, as I project a 39-dog day for Sudo, which should keep the contest interesting right until the last bite.