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  • 2026 Canadian Prime Minister Odds: Who Will Lead Canada Next?

2026 Canadian Prime Minister Odds: Who Will Lead Canada Next?

Adam Martin for Bookies.com

Adam Martin  | 

2026 Canadian Prime Minister Odds: Who Will Lead Canada Next?

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Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has come under heavy scrutiny in recent years, and he may not be Canada’s top political figure for much longer.

The next Canadian election is scheduled for October 2025, but it could happen sooner as confidence in Prime Minister Trudeau continues to decline. If an early election is called, Canada may see a new leader sooner than expected. Alternatively, Trudeau could resign before then, paving the way for someone else to step into his role.

Bookies.com veteran oddsmaker Adam Thompson has put hypothetical betting odds on who could be Canada’s next Prime Minister in 2026.

2026 Canadian Prime Minister Odds

Candidate Party Odds Implied Probability (%)
Pierre Poilievre Conservative -125 55.6
Chrystia Freeland Liberal +500 16.7
Mark Carney Liberal +900 10.0
Justin Trudeau Liberal +1150 8.0
Jagmeet Singh New Democratic +1400 6.7
Mélanie Joly Liberal +2000 4.8
Yves-François Blanchet Bloc Québécois +2500 3.8
Dominic LeBlanc Liberal +3000 3.2
Jean Charest Conservative +3500 2.8
Naheed Nenshi Independent +4000 2.4
The Field - +1700 5.6

(The Field includes Conservative Leslyn Lewis, Liberal François-Philippe Champagne and Independent Jody Wilson-Raybould)

Odds are projected and do not reflect any odds that may be available at legal betting sites or betting apps.

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Quick Analysis

Conservative Pierre Poilievre is the odds-on favorite to be the next Canadian prime Minister in 2026. He has received plenty of support in recent years as many Canadians want a change.

With Trudeau resigning from his top post a possibility, Liberal MPs Chrystia Freeland and Mark Carney could take his spot if he steps down and the Liberals remain atop the Government.

Of course, you cannot discount Trudeau's wanting to remain in office, and even though he has not fared well in recent years, there is a chance he could be voted back into office again.

There is also NDP Jagmeet Singh becoming Canada’s top leader or Yves-François Blanchet of the Bloc Québécois if Canadians are hoping for a completely different voice at the top.

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About the Author

Adam Martin for Bookies.com
Adam Martin
A writer based out of Toronto, Adam Martin has covered professional sports, with an emphasis on sports gambling, for more than a decade, writing for such outlets as The Toronto Star and Sportsnet. He is an expert in UFC, while also covering NHL betting and the Stanley Cup.