2026 Canadian Prime Minister Odds: Who Will Lead Canada Next?


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Canadian Prime Minister Odds: Who Replaces Trudeau?

By Adam Martin Jan 6th, 2025 9:30 AM CST |

Canadian Prime Minister Odds: Who Replaces Trudeau?

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Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has resigned as heavy scrutiny in recent years has intensified to deafening levels. Trudeau will serve as prime minister until March 24, at which point he'll be replaced by a new Liberal Party leader selected by the party,

Whoever that is may not hold the job for long. The next Canadian election is scheduled for October 2025, but a special election could be called as well. If an early election is called, Canada may see a new leader sooner than expected.

Bookies.com veteran oddsmaker Adam Thompson has put hypothetical betting odds on who could be Canada’s next Prime Minister in 2026.

2026 Canadian Prime Minister Odds

Candidate	Party	Odds	Implied Probability (%)
Pierre Poilievre	Conservative	+105	48.8
Chrystia Freeland	Liberal	+400	20.0
Mark Carney	Liberal	+500	16.7
Jagmeet Singh	New Democratic	+1400	6.7
Mélanie Joly	Liberal	+2000	4.8
Yves-François Blanchet	Bloc Québécois	+2500	3.8
Dominic LeBlanc	Liberal	+3000	3.2
Jean Charest	Conservative	+3500	2.8
Naheed Nenshi	Independent	+4000	2.4
The Field	-	+1500	6.3

(The Field includes Conservative Leslyn Lewis, Liberal François-Philippe Champagne and Independent Jody Wilson-Raybould)

Odds are projected and do not reflect any odds that may be available at legal betting sites or betting apps.

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Conservative Pierre Poilievre is the odds-on favorite to be the next Canadian prime Minister in 2026. He has received plenty of support in recent years as many Canadians want a change.

With Trudeau resigning from his top post, Liberal MPs Chrystia Freeland and Mark Carney could take his spot and attempt to guide the Liberals in the next election.

There is also NDP Jagmeet Singh or Yves-François Blanchet of the Bloc Québécois if Canadians are hoping for a completely different voice at the top.

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Canadian Prime Minister Odds: Who Replaces Trudeau?

2026 Canadian Prime Minister Odds

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