American Express 2023 Golf Odds, Picks & Betting Predictions

An absolutely loaded field has gathered in La Quinta, California, where the golf odds for the 2023 American Express don’t look much like the board we’ve come to expect in mid-January. 

Ten of the top 20 players in the world are teeing it up this week, including five of the top 10. For comparison’s sake, the 2018 American Express – then known as the CareerBuilder Challenge – featured just two of the top 20. 

The golf betting will be decidedly juicier this week at what was traditionally a sleepy, low-key event played in front of a handful of AARP card-holding spectators in the Coachella Valley. 

This tournament features a three-course rotation ahead of a 54-hole cut, with players getting rounds in at PGA West’s Stadium Course, Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta Country Club before the field is reduced ahead of the final round at the Stadium Course. 

Jon Rahm is the heavy betting favorite at +650 on sports betting apps coming off his comeback win at the Tournament of Champions. He now has three wins in his last five starts with the TOC, DP World Tour Championship and Spanish Open, and he’s finished T-8 or better in eight of his last nine starts.

Patrick Cantlay and Scottie Scheffler are next on the board with +1000 odds – Cantlay has finished T-16 or better in 10 of his last 11 events dating back to the Memorial last June, and he’s finished solo ninth, solo second and T-9 in three prior appearances at this tournament. Scheffler is ranked No. 2 in the world and has four consecutive top-10 finishes, including a T-7 his last time out at the TOC. 

Tony Finau (+1400) and Xander Schauffele (+1800) round out the top five on what is now a real treat of a betting board at an event that’s been underappreciated in recent years. 

2023 American Express Odds

2023 American Express Expert Picks & Predictions 

Tom Hoge Top-5 Finish 

Odds: +750 at DraftKings

We hit on a Hayden Buckley Top-10 finish at +600 odds last week at the Sony, and we’re looking to stay hot in Palm Springs. Of the second-tier on the betting board just below the A-listers, Hoge is our favorite pick by far. 

The 33-year-old is ranked No. 30 in the world, a career high, and he picked up his first Tour win last year at Pebble Beach. He’s a rare late bloomer who’s hitting his stride and playing with more confidence than ever, arriving at a tournament that suits his game perfectly. 

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Hoge leads the Tour in Strokes Gained Approach this season and that’s always been his game. Fairways and greens. Get hot with the putter. Repeat. We know he’s not afraid to take it low – Hoge shot 23-under to finish T-3 two weeks ago at the TOC, and he shot 21-under on the week to finish solo second at the American Express in 2022. He also finished T-6 at the 2020 American Express. 

This is one of few tournaments where below-average driving distance isn’t a concern. It’s a ballstrikers event and Hoge is a ballstriker down to his bones, a throwback-type player and gambling connoisseur who earned his nickname ‘Tommy Tables’ with a proclivity for cards and dice. 

We’ll take our own gamble on Hoge this week on betting sites and back him for a top-5 finish at +750 odds.

2023 American Express Betting Tips

The list of past winners here includes huge names like Jon Rahm (2018) and lesser-known journeymen like two-time winner Hudson Swafford (2017, 2022). But it’s largely comprised of your typical ballstrikers and throwback players like Jason Dufner, Bill Haas, Patrick Reed and Pat Perez. 

Strokes Gained Approach is our biggest focus of the week, and we always consult last week’s numbers in that department rather than the actual finish – Hoge, for example, missed the cut at the Sony Open, but he was seventh in Strokes Gained Approach through two rounds and was on the cutline before a bogey-bogey-bogey finish. Having the weekend off probably wasn’t the worst thing as he prepares for his third straight tournament week, and he’ll be keen to get back out there and forget about the awful Friday finish.

Weather and course conditions are important this week. La Quinta Country Club is the most gettable course on Tour in good conditions – Adam Hadwin shot a 13-under 59 there in 2018 en route to a solo-second finish. Conversely, the Stadium Course can be a really difficult test if the wind is blowing. 

Overall, we’re looking for players that keep it on the short stuff and aren’t afraid to take it into the low 60s. They might not be a strong fit at upcoming courses like Torrey Pines or PGA National, but fading the bomb-and-gouge crowd for a more nuanced game is always the play in Palm Springs. 

2023 American Express, Date & TV

When: Thursday-Sunday, Jan. 19-22

Where: PGA West, La Quinta, California

TV: Golf Channel, Peacock