By Dan Kilbridge | | 19 mins
BMW Championship 2021 Odds, Betting Tips & Expert Picks
Tony Finau sent the golf betting world into a frenzy by winning his first tournament since 2016 at the Northern Trust in New Jersey. Now it’s on to the BMW Championship, where another stats world-beater is the heavy, heavy favorite, according to the latest golf odds.
Jon Rahm is on top of the betting board this week at sportsbooks with +550 odds to get it done at Caves Valley Golf Club in Owings Mills, Maryland. Finau’s win was celebrated in golf betting circles because he’s been so strong statistically in recent years without the payoff. But no one has been more dominant than Rahm, who leads the Tour in Strokes Gained Total by a significant margin.
Xander Schauffele is next at +1400 on betting sites and sports betting apps, and Jordan Spieth is third at +1600 following a rough final-round 79 at the Northern Trust. Collin Morikawa (+1800) and Justin Thomas (+2000) round out the top five.
BMW Championship Odds
|Player||Winner||Top 5||Top 10|
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BMW Championship Expert Pick
Shane Lowry Top-10 Finish
Odds: +400 at DraftKings
We like the way this course sets up for Lowry and we think he could be a dangerous player this week as he looks to move into the top 30 and qualify for the Tour Championship at East Lake.
This is a big-boy course at 7,500-plus yards and Lowry has plenty of distance to handle it. He also has a terrific short game and he ranks 15th on Tour in Strokes Gained Around the Green. Lowry has also been in fine form lately with four consecutive finishes inside the top-25, including a T-11 at last week’s Northern Trust.
Lowry has all the pieces required at this course and is playing consistently strong golf. We definitely expect him to be in the mix this week and are on him for a top-10 finish.
BMW Championship Betting Tips
This is the first PGA Tour event for Caves Valley, which has hosted its share of pro tournaments like LPGA events and a U.S. Senior Open. The course has been lengthened significantly in recent years and should provide a solid test for the world’s best as the top 70 in the FedEx Cup standings aim to make it to East Lake.
While this course is long, it doesn’t look like missed fairways will be all that punishing. This has bomb and gouge written all over it. However, the greens are small and tricky, and should serve as an equalizer for players who don’t hit it a mile off the tee.
We’re focused largely on guys like Lowry – distance off the tee is important but accuracy isn’t at a premium. We also want guys with impressive Strokes Gained Around the Greens stats, as these aren’t the easiest greens to hit on approach. The same was true at Liberty National and it wasn’t surprising to see Finau and Cameron Smith – two of the best around the greens – meet in a playoff. Same vibes this week, but distance will be even more important than it was at Liberty National.
BMW Championship, Date & TV
When: Thursday-Sunday, Aug. 26-29
Where: Caves Valley Golf Club, Owings Mills, Maryland
TV: Golf Channel, NBC