College Football Playoff: Expect Record Betting Numbers, But Matchups Matter

By Bill Speros Dec 18th, 2024 9:03 PM EDT

Bet $10, Get $150 If You Win
Promo Code: BOOKIESBG150

Used 70 Times Today

Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Must be 21+ to participate. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (CO, DC, IL, IN, KY, LA, MD, MS, NC, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY) Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI). Visit BetMGM.com for T&Cs. US promotional offers not available in NY, NV, or Puerto Rico.

The College Football Playoff begins this weekend with four Round 1 games on campus. The 12-team, 11-game event runs for a full month, ending with the National Championship Game in Atlanta on January 20.

College football oddsmakers and betting operators remain optimistic about the handles that could be generated by the first-ever dozen-team postseason.

The “CFB Playoff will do record handles. More teams, more excitement, and more betting opportunities,” Jeffrey Benson of Circa Sports tells bookies.com.

But don’t expect record numbers immediately. The CFB Playoff begins Friday night inside a very chilly Notre Dame Stadium. The Fighting Irish play host to the Indiana Hoosiers. But the 3 Saturday games will be in competition for betting dollars and viewership against the NFL’s first Saturday slate of the season.

Saturday, SMU visits Penn State (12 p.m.), Clemson plays at Texas (4 p.m.) and Ohio State plays host to Tennessee in the nightcap (8 p.m.).

Both Saturday NFL games are stacked with playoff implications. In the first game, the AFC South champion Texans plays at Kansas City in a game that begins at 1 p.m. The AFC West champion Chiefs and their ailing QB Patrick Mahomes have yet to wrap up homefield. In the second game, which kicks at 4:30, the Steelers can gift-wrap the AFC North with a road win over their division rival Baltimore. The Ravens need a win to stay above water in the AFC wildcard race.

'Not Sure What Can Compete With The NFL'

College Football Playoff: Expect Record Betting Numbers, But Matchups Matter

One major sportsbook operator tells bookies.com.: “I’m not sure what can compete with the NFL,”

After Round 1, the CFB Playoffs will be free of any direct NFL competition on its schedule. The increased number of games will inevitably mean more money crossing the real and digital window. But any single-game comparison to last year’s numbers depends on the eventual teams that advance.

“It just depends on the matchups,” Jeff Sherman of SuperBook Sports says. “If we have the desirable public teams then yes, it could exceed last season.”

In terms of those “desirable teams” the largest sentiment at SuperBook lies with Penn State and Notre Dame.

“Boise State is our largest liability,” Sherman adds.

At DraftKings, the most-bet teams to win the College Football Playoff are:

Ohio State
Georgia
Texas
Oregon
Tennessee

BetMGM's John Ewing also believes the matchups will be crucial in determining if we see any single-game betting records.

“With the continued expansion of legal sports betting and the College Football Playoff, we expect this to be the most-bet postseason ever. Depending on which teams make the semifinals, those could be the most bet too. Matchups really determine interest,” he says.

In Atlantic City, the Borgata’s Thomas Gable is carrying a small liability on Notre Dame, thanks most likely to the “Subway Alumni” that populate the Garden State and its surrounding environs. His book is “break-even” with Georgia winning and slightly ahead with the rest of the field.

Traditional Bowls 'In A Death Spiral'?

Gable believes the overall handle in the college bowl season won't be too deeply affected by a drop off in betting on many of the lesser-known and lesser-impact bowls.

“With more games/teams in the playoffs, college football handle will increase (even when you are just comparing it to bowl games of previous seasons). When there are more meaningful games, they will pull in more handle,” he says.

“Now, the traditional bowls may be in a death spiral to a degree but adding teams to the playoff format will more than offset that. When just comparing the semifinals and finals year over year, I think you are going to end up seeing something like you do in college basketball. If the championship game features teams that not many expected to get there (hypothetically if a team like SMU reaches the final), then the handle may dip. But if you get the Blue Bloods in the final, then handle will more than likely increase. Those teams, for good or bad, draw in the public and recreational betting dollars.”

In terms of how we got here, FanDuel’s Alex Pitocchelli says his book “did not note any noteworthy differences in wagering activity around futures markets like National Championship and To Make the Playoffs. They’ll be factoring in home field advantage for relevant playoff games, but otherwise it’s business as usual.”

He adds the bowl games featuring Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders, Heisman winner Travis Hunter, and Heisman finalist Miami QB Cam Ward may drive some betting dollars, but that the post-season college betting interest will be driven by” those games but the fact that these games have a material impact on the National Championship.”

College Football Playoff Schedule + Odds

Here is a breakdown of the upcoming College Football Playoff schedule, with the latest betting odds:

Round 1 - Friday

(10) Indiana at (7) Notre Dame
8 p.m., Notre Dame Stadium
TV: ABC/ESPN
Odds: Notre Dame -7.5
Money line: Notre Dame (-285); Indiana (+230)
O/U: 51 (O -105; U -115)

Round 1 - Saturday

(11) SMU at (7) Penn State
12 p.m., Beaver Stadium
TV: TNT/MAX
Odds: Penn State -8.5
Money line: SMU (+250); Penn State (-310)
O/U: 54 (O -108; U -112)

(12) Clemson at (5) Texas
4 p.m., DKR-Texas Memorial StadiumTV: TNT/MAX
Odds: Texas -12
Money line: Clemson (+340); Texas (-440)
O/U: 52 (O -108; U -112)

(9) Tennessee at (8) Ohio State
8 p.m., Ohio Stadium
TV: ABC/ESPN
Odds: Ohio State -7.5
Money line: Tennessee (+235); Ohio State (-290)
O/U: 46.5 (O -110; U -110)

Quarterfinal: Tuesday, December 31

Fiesta Bowl
Penn State/SMU vs (3) Boise State
7:30 p.m., State Farm Stadium
TV: ESPN
Odds: Penn State -11.5 vs Boise State
SMU -6.5 vs Boise State
Money line: TBD
O/U: TBD

Quarterfinal: Wednesday, January 1

Peach Bowl
Texas/Clemson vs (4) Arizona State
1 p.m., Mercedes-Benz Stadium
TV: ESPN
Odds: Texas -12.5 vs Arizona State
Clemson -4.5 vs. Arizona State
Money line: TBD
O/U: TBD

Rose Bowl
Tennessee/Ohio State vs (1) Oregon
5 p.m., Rose Bowl
TV: ESPN
Odds: Oregon -5.5 vs. Tennessee
Oregon -1.5 vs. Ohio State
Money line: TBD
O/U: TBD

Sugar Bowl
Notre Dame/Indiana vs (2) Georgia
8:45 p.m., Caesars Superdome
TV: ESPN
Odds: Notre Dame -1.5 vs Georgia
Georgia -6.5 vs Indiana
Money line: TBD
O/U: TBD

Semifinal: Thursday, January 9

Orange Bowl
TBD vs TBD
7:30 p.m., Hard Rock Stadium
TV: ESPN
Odds: TBD
Money line: TBD
O/U: TBD

Semifinal: Friday, January 10

Cotton Bowl
TBD vs TBD
7:30 p.m., AT&T Stadium
TV: ESPN
Odds: TBD
Money line: TBD
O/U: TBD

National Championship - Monday January 20

National Championship Game
TBD vs TBD
7:30 p.m., Mercedes-Benz Stadium
TV: ESPN
Odds: TBD
Money line: TBD
O/U: TBD

Tap for Promo Visit site

Bet $10, Get $150 If You Win
Promo Code: BOOKIESBG150

Used 24 Times Today

•

Popular in New Jersey

About the Author

Bill Speros

More About Bill

Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.