Jed Meshew for Bookies.com

By Jed Meshew | | 7 mins

Costa vs Vettori Odds, Prediction & UFC Vegas 41 Fight Night Picks

Costa vs Vettori Odds, Prediction & UFC Vegas 41 Fight Night Picks
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This weekend the UFC keeps right on rolling with their long slate of fight cards with UFC Vegas 41. Though the card as a whole is one of the UFC’s weaker offerings in recent months (at least on paper), the main event is anything but for UFC betting fans as two top-five middleweights Paulo Costa and Marvin Vettori face off.

Let's take a look at the odds at sportsbooks and betting sites before making our UFC betting picks for the main event.

Paulo Costa vs. Marvin Vettori UFC Odds

FavoriteUnderdog
Marvin Vettori ( -145 )Paulo Costa ( +125 )

Odds via DraftKings and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings Sportsbook review and latest DraftKings promo codes.

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Paulo Costa vs. Marvin Vettori Betting Analysis

Second-ranked middleweight Paulo Costa is an intimidating bulldozer of a man who has made his name on the back of relentless forward pressure and thudding strikes. However, in his last bout, he had the terminator veneer pulled back when he came up short in his title bid against current champion Israel Adesanya, getting humiliated en route to a second-round knockout loss. Now, Costa will look to get back on the winning track against another of Adesanya’s vanquished foes.

Like Costa, fifth-ranked middleweight Marvin Vettori is a pressure fighter who succumbed to the superior skills of Adesanya. However, unlike Costa, Vettori was able to withstand Adesanya’s offense for the full 25 minutes.

Vettori is not a big puncher but he has an excellent chin and rarely takes a step backwards, which overcomes many of his technical deficiencies on the feet. On top of that, Vettori is also a solid wrestler and has good control from top position.

Paulo Costa vs. Marvin Vettori Best Bet

Though Costa is the more feared fighter of the two because of his power, the truth is, Costa’s resume leaves much to be desired, while Vettori has legitimately good wins at middleweight.

Add in that Vettori should be durable enough to withstand Costa’s early onslaught and is the better grappler of the two, and all this adds up to a Vettori victory. I like Vettori at -133 on FOX Bet and also a smaller play on Vettori by Decision at +200 on our sports betting app.


Fedor Emelianenko vs. Timothy Johnson Betting Analysis

Also this weekend, Bellator MMA produces another of their classic offerings with a fight card headlined by the return of MMA legend Fedor Emelianenko, who takes on journeyman heavyweight Timothy Johnson in Fedor’s backyard of Moscow.

Emelianenko is one of the most celebrated and adored fighters in MMA history. Undefeated at heavyweight for nearly 10 years, Emelianenko is considered by many to be the greatest heavyweight fighter of all time. Unfortunately, time comes for us all and Emelianenko is now 45 years old and well past his prime.

At his peak, Fedor was one of the first true jack-of-all-trades in high-level MMA, able to knock out opponents, submit them off his back, or just take them down and pound them out. As he has gotten older though, Fedor has become almost entirely dependent on his one-punch knockout power.

Johnson is almost the exact antithesis of Emelianenko. Only 11 years into his career (compared to Fedor’s 21) Johnson comes from a wrestling background and does not have nearly the resume Emelianenko does, having mostly won boring decisions, when he has managed to win at all.

However, last year Johnson managed to stack three wins together and that was enough to earn him an interim title shot for Bellator. He was unable to capitalize on that opportunity, but he’s hoping to keep his 2020 momentum up to secure by far the biggest win of his career.

Fedor Emelianenko vs. Timothy Johnson Best Bet

Fedor Emelianenko is one of the best fighters who has ever lived, but this weekend he faces his most difficult opponent: Father Time. At 45 years old, Emelianenko is almost a decade removed from his prime and he’ll be coming into this fight having not fought in nearly two years.

Sure, it’s possible he lands a big right hand and rides off into the sunset in Moscow, but Johnson is the bigger and younger man, and the most likely scenario is that Johnson uses his size to take Emelianenko down and grind him out. I like a play on Timothy Johnson at -110 on FanDuel.

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UFC Vegas 41 Date, Time & TV

Date: Saturday, Oct. 23, 2021

Time: 1 p.m. ET (prelims), 4 p.m. ET (main card)

Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas

TV: ESPN+

About the Author

Jed Meshew for Bookies.com
Jed Meshew
Jed Meshew writes about MMA for Bookies.com. Jed has written for a number of sites over the years, including BloodyElbow.com, FightOpinion.com and MMAFighting.com.