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Mike Tyson-Jake Paul Fight Ultimate Betting Guide: Odds, Updates, Predictions

Bill Speros for Bookies.com

Bill Speros  | 7 mins

Mike Tyson-Jake Paul Fight Ultimate Betting Guide: Odds, Updates, Predictions

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Mike Tyson and Jake Paul enter the boxing ring tonight in one of the most unique bouts of the 21st Century.  

Tyson, 58, was the world’s greatest fighter in his day. This is just his second bout since he “retired” in 2005. Paul, 27, is a YouTube star turned fighter turned entrepreneur.  

The heavyweight takes place at AT&T Stadium and will be live-streamed on Netflix. The main card begins airing at 8 p.m. The winner of this fight will have more wins at Jerry World than the Dallas Cowboys this season. The fight was already delayed from its original July date because Tyson suffered an ulcer flare-up. 

Paul claimed Tuesday the fight will have the biggest gate of any bout outside Las Vegas this year. AT&T Stadium is expandable and can accommodate 

Paul is deceptively strong and quick. While Tyson can boast of “old man” strength, his stamina and quickness will be a major liability here. And he hasn’t shown much conditioning in any of his pre-fight training videos. 

This Tyson Is Not That Tyson

Mike Tyson-Jake Paul Fight Ultimate Betting Guide: Odds, Updates, Predictions 2

No sport harkens louder for the greats to make to return “just one more time” than boxing. But Tyson looked all of his 54 years at the time when he fought Roy Jones Jr. in 2020. 

But today's Tyson is not the Tyson who captivated the world of sports in the last century. 

"Tyson has has skills left. He looks like he's in good shape and he'll probably land some good punches. But he's just 30 years older than Paul, and that's the reason why Paul's a -220 favorite over him. Think about this in Tyson's Day. Tyson would've been 50-to-win-1 in this fight," said DraftKings' Director of Race and Sports Johnny Avello. 

He started writing tickets on the Las Vegas Strip 40 years ago. 

"Tyson was one of the most iconic fighters of all time. Any time he got into the ring, you could expect him to give it all and have no mercy on whoever he was fighting. I'm looking forward to it," Avello said. 

Mike Tyson-Jake Paul Fight Odds

Here are the latest major market odds on the Mike Tyson-Jake Paul fight scheduled for Friday night at AT&T Stadium via DraftKings. 

FighterMoneylineTotal Rounds
Jake Paul -220 Over 6.5 (-110)
Mike Tyson+160Under 6.5 (-120)
Winning MethodOdds
Jake Paul By KO/TKO/DQ+150
Jake Paul By Decision+280
Draw+750
Mike Tyson By KO/TKO/DQ+250
Mike Tyson By Decision+900

Where Is The Money On The Mike Tyson-Jake Paul Fight?

Both Sherman and Avello say the public is heavily invested in Tyson. Sherman said his book took strong public plays on Tyson at +235, and some sharp play at Paul at -260 and -300. DK is seeing similar public sentiment. Avello said 60% of DK's action thus far is on Tyson, but he expects the overwhelming amount of money come in on Fight Night. "They have been betting Tyson to stop the fight in the first round at +2200. So I just think there's going to be plenty of Tyson money here." Brad Hardwood of Caesars adds: "It's clear we need Paul on this one." His book is seeing 91% of the tickets and 77% of the money on Tyson. 

Some States Prohibit Wagering On Tyson-Paul Fight

Mike Tyson-Jake Paul Fight Ultimate Betting Guide: Odds, Updates, Predictions 1

Wagering on the fight is expected to be as fast and furious as Tyson in his prime. But not all states are taking action on this fight, despite it being sanctioned in Texas. The combatants will be using 14-ounce gloves, fighting in 2-minute rounds, and the fight is set to go just 8 rounds. Those 2 reasons were cited by the Massachusetts Gaming Commission last week when it ruled that betting on the fight will be allowed in the Commonwealth. 

Several other states have prohibited wagering on the fight. New York regulators determined it was an “exhibition,” and thus not eligible for bets there.

"I was surprised to see that," DraftKings Race and Sports Director Johnny Avello said. "It's a sanctioned fight. I think some of the reasoning behind that is that Tyson's 58 years old, but hey, look, there are athletes out there at any age. Just because he's 58 doesn't mean that he's too old to participate."

Those restrictions will limit the overall handle on the fight, but Avello still expects to be among DK's top fights of the year. 

Other online books will feel a similar impact. 

“We expect it to be a very popular event next Friday night, but there are a few states where it will not be available like Pennsylvania, New York, and Colorado that will impact the overall betting on the event,” said Kevin Hennessy of Fanatics.

In Las Vegas, the numbers will be dominant this year. 

"The fights have already been heavily wagered upon," the Superbook's Jeff Sherman told bookies.com. "We're expecting it to be our largest wagered-upon boxing event of 2024 and the most wagered-upon Jake Paul fight. But it won't come close to Mayweather-McGregor. That was a complete outlier." 

Where Can You Bet On The Mike Tyson-Jake Paul Fight?

Legalized sports betting is active in 38 states, plus Washington DC. Thus far, the following jurisdictions are expected to allow legal wagering on the Mike Tyson-Jake Paul fight: 

  • Arizona
  • Arkansas
  • Connecticut
  • Delaware
  • Florida
  • Illinois
  • Indiana
  • Iowa
  • Kansas 
  • Maine
  • Maryland
  • Massachusetts
  • Michigan
  • Mississippi*
  • Montana*
  • Nebraska*
  • Nevada
  • New Hampshire
  • New Jersey
  • New Mexico*
  • North Carolina
  • North Dakota*
  • Ohio
  • Oregon
  • Rhode Island
  • South Dakota*
  • Tennessee
  • Virginia
  • Washington*
  • Washington DC
  • West Virginia 
  • Wisconsin*
  • Wyoming
  • (* - Retail Betting Only)

Where Is Betting On The Mike Tyson-Jake Paul Fight Not Allowed?

Legalized sports betting is active in 38 states, plus Washington DC. Thus far, the following jurisdictions have prohibited legal wagering on the Mike Tyson-Jake Paul fight: 

  • New York
  • Pennsylvania
  • Colorado
  • Vermont
  • Louisiana
  • Kentucky

In Pennsylvania, regulators determined the fight was simply not within the boundaries of a traditional fight. "We just consider it an untraditional boxing event that's more of an exhibition," Richard McGarvey of Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board told USA TODAY, "We just said, 'Not in Pennsylvania.'"

Mike Tyson-Jake Paul Fight Betting Odds Movement, History

Mike Tyson-Jake Paul fight betting odds history:

  • Paul has the 2nd most bet boxing match in BetMGM history
  • Jake Paul-Nate Diaz fought on August, 6, 2022 
  • Most bet was Gervonta Davis-Ryan Garcia fought on April, 22, 2023
  • Paul also has 6 of the top 25 most bet boxing matches in BetMGM history

Line Movement via BetMGM

  • Paul moved from -345 to -250 to win the fight
  • Tyson moved from +240 to +190
  • 80% of bets, 73% of money is on Tyson to win

Bets Of Note On The Mike Tyson-Jake Paul Fight

  • $25,000 on Mike Tyson to win (+190) placed by a William Hill Nevada bettor
  • $5,500 on  Jake Paul to win (-275) placed by a Caesars Sportsbook Nevada bettor
  • $5,000 on Jake Paul to win (-240) placed by a Caesars Sportsbook bettor in NC
  • $5,000 on Mike Tyson by KO, TKO, or DQ (+225) placed by a William Hill Nevada Bettor

Mike Tyson-Jake Paul Fight Predictions & Picks

ML: Paul (-250)
Rounds: Under 6.5 (-130)
Method: Paul by KO, TKO, or DQ (+125)

Caesars Sportsbooks Lead Combat Oddsmaker Brandon Yeager

  • “Mike Tyson will make this fight competitive for the first 4 rounds where his power will be a factor. After that, I think he will be too gassed, and his age will start to show on the back half of the fight. Jake Paul has shown that even though he's not the most technical boxer, he does carry some power in his hands. With that, it leads me to believe a ref will have a short leash on the damage they will allow Tyson to take due to his age and health concerns. I'd think this could lead to a late-round stoppage by Jake Paul.”

Bookies.Com Senior Betting Analyst Bill Speros;

  • "The public is in love with a vision of Tyson delivering a 1986-style first round knock out. But Paul, love him or hate him, is a better and more skilled fighter than he's given been credit. Tyson's conditioning remains a concern. He doesn't want to lose to a guy who started out on YouTube. Paul will simply move, jab, and move again. Tyson's quickness - or lack thereof - will be his undoing. Paul has hidden power. And he'll catch Tyson off-guard enough late to win by either a KO, TKO, or DQ." 

About the Author

Bill Speros for Bookies.com
Bill Speros
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.