AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2021 Odds, Predictions & Picks
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It’s a dream week for golf betting enthusiasts who’ve grown tired of seeing Ray Romano and Kenny G dominate the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am broadcast. This tournament won’t have any amateurs in 2021 and moves to a standard 36-hole cut rather than the usual 54 holes, played across two courses instead of three.
The field lacks star power on the betting board as well, with big names such as World No. 1 Dustin Johnson dropping out in the days leading up. We’re left with a great tournament for the golf diehards – a chance to see more of players such as Will Zalatoris, Doug Ghim and Joel Dahmen at an iconic course without the distractions.
Patrick Cantlay is the new heavy favorite in the latest Pebble Beach Pro-Am odds following Johnson’s decision to sit out – the No. 11 player in the world is +750, while Daniel Berger and Paul Casey are next at +1400. Zalatoris is +1800 and Jason Day round out the top five at +2000.
2021 Pebble Beach Pro-Am Best Bets
|Francesco Molinari over Si Woo Kim||-106|
Bet it at DraftKings
|Paul Casey over Daniel Berger||+105|
Bet it at BetMGM
|Jason Day over Alex Noren||-137|
Bet it at Unibet
|Doug Ghim Top-10 Finish||+700|
Bet it at PointsBet
|Max Homa over Sam Burns||-112 |
Bet it at FanDuel
Golf odds current as of publication and subject to change
Francesco Molinari (-108) over Si Woo Kim
Molinari only played eight tournaments in 2020 but has looked great since returning last month for the West Coast swing. He was T-8 at the American Express and T-10 at the Farmers Insurance Open, ranking 17th in strokes gained approach the green and sixth in strokes gained tee-to-green.
Approach shots are critical at Pebble Beach because the greens are so small, and Molinari’s relative lack of distance won’t hurt him this week. He’s also clearly refreshed and revitalized from all the time off. Kim is playing for the fifth consecutive week and has slowed down since winning the American Express, missing the cut at Torrey Pines and finishing T-50 last week in Phoenix. We love Molinari in this matchup at DraftKings.
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Paul Casey (+105) over Daniel Berger
Casey is an elite irons player and has finished inside the top 15 in strokes gained approach every year since 2014. That’ll always work around Pebble Beach, where Casey finished second in 2019 and T-8 in 2018. He’s also in good form coming off a T-8 finish two weeks ago at the American Express.
Berger had been hot to start 2021 but missed the cut last week in Phoenix. He made a lot of putts but really struggled with the irons at -1.49 strokes gained approach for the week. Casey is the sharper player right now and a better fit at this course. We like the underdog in this matchup with Casey +105 at BetMGM.
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Jason Day (-137) over Alex Noren
We like Day in most matchups this week, especially against Noren with a reasonable vig of -137. The guy has been lights out at Pebble his entire career, with four consecutive top-5 finishes and seven top-10s in 11 career starts.
He missed the cut last week because he was the second-worst putter in the field at -2.62 strokes gained putting, but the irons were on point in Phoenix. Day’s always had an excellent short game and two off rounds isn’t concerning. We don’t have much to say about Noren this week – fine player, decent form, nice guy, etc. All signs point to Day in this matchup at Unibet.
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Doug Ghim Top-10 Finish (+700)
The 24-year-old is just starting to realize his potential on Tour. He had his first career top-10 finish with a T-5 at last month’s American Express, and he followed it up with a respectable T-37 against a loaded field at Torrey Pines.
This is a much weaker field and Ghim’s iron play/all-around game should translate well at Pebble. He’s been close a lot this season, with five top-25 finishes in nine starts. We expect a great week from Ghim and wouldn’t be surprised to see him crack the top-10 for the second time in three weeks. Grab the bet at PointsBet.
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Max Homa (-112) over Sam Burns
Homa has made four consecutive cuts, which is always a plus for matchup bets. He’s also been inside the top 15 two years in a row at Pebble. Homa was the fourth-best irons player in the field last week and probably feels like the golf was better than the T-42 result.
Burns simply putted lights out to finish T-22 in Phoenix, with +2.72 strokes gained putting – nearly a full stroke higher than Carlos Ortiz, who was second at +1.87. Otherwise Burns sprayed it around and lost -1.67 strokes tee-to-green. That’s not going to get it done this week, and we’re definitely going with Homa -112 over Burns at FanDuel.
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