By F1 Betting Expert | | 10 mins
2022 Spanish Grand Prix Odds, Picks & Predictions
After the first-ever Miami Grand Prix, Formula 1 is returning to a tried and tested venue in Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya for the 2022 Spanish Grand Prix. This track is a familiar venue to drivers having also served as the venue for preseason testing, which makes it an ideal place for the teams to implement major upgrade packages.
Max Verstappen is on a roll: The reigning champion has won the last two races and has finished first in every race he’s finished this season. Now it’s up to Charles Leclerc to fight back as Ferrari’s lead is beginning to look fragile.
Formula 1 Spanish Grand Prix odds
Spanish Grand Prix Betting Tips
Last time out, reigning champion Verstappen dominated in Miami to close in on championship leader Leclerc. The Dutchman has only finished three of five races so far and reliability issues crept in during Friday practice in Miami, but he turned on the pace that Sunday to put the pressure on Ferrari.
The Red Bull driver overhauled Carlos Sainz at the start of the debut Miami Grand Prix and then passed Leclerc on track, holding him off in a late Safety Car restart. The momentum is with Red Bull – Verstappen is the clear favorite at -105 with DraftKings and a more lucrative +105 with FanDuel – but it’s not quite as simple as that in Spain, where Verstappen took his first F1 win back in 2016.
This venue is familiar to all the teams given it hosted the first preseason test of 2022 and has hosted a Grand Prix every year since 1991. That familiarity, plus its mix of medium- and high-speed corners, means that teams generally bring big upgrades to the Spanish Grand Prix. This year’s race is no exception, the likes of Ferrari, Alpine, Aston Martin, Mercedes and more are set to update their hardware.
Red Bull might be on top heading into Spain thanks to their car’s high top-speed but, if Ferrari find some pace with new parts, the team in red could be right back in the fight. Then there’s the matter of Sainz himself, the other Ferrari driver hoping to take his first career win and become the first Spanish winner at home since Fernando Alonso in 2013. Sainz’s odds sit at +1400 if you back him to win at home via DraftKings.
The development battle is a long one and could therefore see the competitive order change again from Red Bull back to Ferrari. The Scuderia are expected to bring new parts to Spain and aim to claw back their competitive advantage – or at least catch up to the raging Bulls.
What else should we expect from Spain? The weather is set to be hot and dry, the lack of rain meaning there shouldn’t be surprise midfielders shaking up the pecking order at the front – and overtaking is normally tough here. Whoever gets pole position normally wins and should do again – barring reliability gremlins, which Red Bull are no strangers to having faced three retirements so far in 2022.
Spanish Grand Prix Predictions
Leclerc, Verstappen, Leclerc, Verstappen…Verstappen. That’s how the form book looks after five races in 2022. Those two drivers are still at the head of the field and FanDuel’s odds of +105 look good value for a Verstappen win – or head to DraftKings for +135 on a Leclerc win.
Who could finish on the podium? BetMGM is offering +110 on Red Bull’s Sergio Perez to join the top three – not a bad bet considering he came very close in Miami and took top-three finishes in both Emilia Romagna and Australia.
Then there’s the matter of Mercedes. The Silver Arrows have won seven of the last eight Spanish Grands Prix but they’re not considered favorites this time around given how Ferrari and Red Bull have taken this year’s championship by storm. It could, however, be considered an outside bet to finish on the podium with both Lewis Hamilton and George Russell fetching odds of +410 via FanDuel.
So far, Russell has had the run of form over Hamilton – the seven-timer’s bad luck evident in Miami where he was held up by a train of midfield cars. That bad fortune must end at some point and Mercedes is still working on tackling its porpoising problem (bouncing on the straights, which is causing the cars to lose pace across the lap) with more upgrades bound for Spain. If it can make those upgrades work – keep an eye on Friday’s Free Practice sessions for any signs – then a podium is just about within the realms of possibility.
Beware of any other outside bets for the podium; since the start of the hybrid era in 2014 only Ferrari, Mercedes and Red Bull have landed Spanish GP podiums – and since then, only in 2017 did three different constructors land in the top three.
Another bet to consider is the Safety Car. We’ve had one in every race so far this season and there was one in the 2021 Spanish Grand Prix, yet there have only been nine Safety Car deployments in the last 22 Spanish GPs. DraftKings is offering +125 for the Spanish GP to run without a Safety Car.