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Adam Martin for Bookies.com

By Adam Martin | | 10 mins

UFC Vegas 59 Odds, Picks & Betting Predictions for Hill vs Santos

UFC Vegas 59 Odds, Picks & Betting Predictions for Hill vs Santos

UFC Vegas 59 goes down this Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card features 12 fights in total, including a fantastic light heavyweight main event between knockout artists Jamahal Hill and Thiago Santos. 

Below, check out our best UFC picks for UFC Vegas 59 across three of the main fights. 

Favorite Underdog
Jamahal Hill | -260 Thiago Santos | +220

Odds via DraftKings sportsbook and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review.

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UFC Vegas 59 Hill vs Santos Prediction

Jamahal Hill (-260) vs. Thiago Santos (+220)

The main event of UFC Vegas 59 features Jamahal Hill against Thiago Santos in a light heavyweight contest. Hill is a -260 betting favorite on betting sites to get his hand raised - and I like him to win the fight.

Hill has looked incredible for the most part since joining the UFC in 2019. He is 4-1, 1 NC with three of his wins coming by stoppage. He has knocked out some very impressive competition during his UFC run, including back-to-back knockout victories over Jimmy Crute and Johnny Walker in his last two outings. 

Hill looks like he has all the qualities to become a future world champion in the weight class, and a win over Santos would be huge for his career.

Santos is technically still ranked above Hill, but he has not looked like his old self in his recent fights. Now 38 years of age, Santos has lost four of his last five appearances overall, albeit to elite competition. 

UFC Vegas 59 Odds, Picks & Betting Predictions for Hill vs Santos 1

One of the most feared strikers in the UFC light heavyweight division, Santos has notable wins in the Octagon over the likes of Jan Blachowicz and Anthony Smith. However, it feels like he has lost a step in recent fights, and his run as an elite light heavyweight may finally be over after several years at the top of the division.

This is a passing-of-the-torch type of matchup, and I believe Hill will defeat Santos for the biggest win of his MMA career to date. Give me Hill to win as a -260 favorite, and for a prop, you can take a look at Hill by knockout considering that’s how he wins the majority of his fights.

The Pick: Jamahal Hill wins at -260 with DraftKings Sportsbook

Alternative Pick: Jamahal Hill wins by TKO -165 with DraftKings Sportsbook

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Other UFC Vegas 59 Best Bets

Zac Pauga (-230) vs. Mohammed Usman (+195)

Also on the card is the TUF 30 heavyweight finale between Zac Pauga and Mohammed Usman. Pauga is a -230 favorite to get the victory, and I'm backing him on UFC betting sites this weekend.

Pauga is a tremendous athlete who is making his UFC debut here after going 5-0 on the regional circuit. A former NFL player for the Houston Texans’ practice squad, Pauga caught the eye of the UFC matchmakers and they signed him to compete on TUF 30. 

In his two fights on the reality TV show, he beat Nyle Bartling by decision and finished Jordan Heiderman by TKO, showing off a well-rounded game, tremendous striking skills, and very good conditioning. There is a lot to like about Pauga and I believe he is going to have a lot of success in his UFC career.

Usman, meanwhile, is the brother of UFC welterweight champion Kamaru Usman. He, too, had a solid showing in the TUF house, picking up wins over Eduardo Perez and Mitchell Sipe by decision. He also has more professional MMA experience than Pauga, owning a 7-2 pro record while fighting for notable promotions such as PFL. 

However, while Usman is a decent fighter, he doesn’t really excel in any areas of the game. He also seems to be someone who tires as the fight progresses, which could prove to be a huge issue against someone with a great gas tank like Pauga. Usman has a puncher’s chance to win the fight, but that’s about all he has going for him in this matchup.

Pauga should be the better-conditioned athlete and he should be able to push a pace on Usman over three rounds that his opponent can’t match. Give me Pauga as a -230 favorite, and you can take a look at the prop on Pauga to win by decision.

The Pick: Zac Pauga at -230 with DraftKings Sportsbook

Alternative Pick: Zac Pauga wins by decision   +165 with DraftKings Sportsbook

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Serghei Spivac (-240) vs. Augusto Sakai (+200)

In a heavyweight contest, Serghei Spivac takes on Augusto Sakai. Spivac is a -240 favorite on betting apps to get his hand raised, and I like him to get the job done against Sakai.

Spivac joined the UFC in 2019 and has gone 5-3 with three stoppage wins, including a notable submission victory over top contender Tai Tuivasa. “Polar Bear” has been winning his fights with his grappling, which is excellent as he is often able to take his opponents down to the mat and then smother them on the ground before finishing. 

In his last fight, Spivac knocked out former NFL star Greg Hardy for one of the biggest highlights of his MMA career to date. He will now look to break into the top 15 with a win over Sakai.

Sakai, from Brazil, made his UFC debut in 2018 and won the first four fights of his UFC career before losing his last three in a row – all by knockout. While it certainly looked like Sakai was destined to have a solid UFC career after mounting his initial four-fight win streak, he has been nothing but disappointing since.

It feels like every time he takes a step up in competition he loses, and to make matters worse, he has been getting brutally knocked out. Going up against someone who can finish the fight, this looks like a tough matchup on paper for Sakai.

I have not been impressed by Sakai over his last few fights, while Spivac is still improving in my opinion. I’m going with Spivac to win at -240 and you can take a look at him to win by TKO as well.

The Pick: Serghei Spivac to win at -240 with DraftKings Sportsbook

Alternative Pick:  Serghei Spivac wins by TKO +175 with DraftKings Sportsbook

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About the Author

Adam Martin for Bookies.com
Adam Martin
A writer based out of Toronto, Adam Martin has covered professional sports, with an emphasis on sports gambling, for more than a decade, writing for such outlets as The Toronto Star and Sportsnet. He is an expert in UFC, while also covering NHL betting and the Stanley Cup.