US Presidential Election Odds 2020 Weekly Rundown: Biden Back in Lead
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Amid a rough week for President Donald Trump, Democratic nominee and former Vice President Joe Biden resumes his status as the favorite. But Trump, again the Republican nominee, gets good news in some states.
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2020 Presidential Election Odds
|Candidate||This Week||Last Week||Trend|
Odds courtesy of 888Sport's UK-facing betting site and subject to change.
Remember to keep checking back each week as we track where the top candidates stand and point out trends in order to give you the best view of the 2020 U.S. Presidential betting market so far, and where it might be headed.
Joe Biden 2020 Odds
After a long drift and a week tied with Trump, Biden shortens to -121 and regains favorite status. This is likely because of another bad week for Trump and a reconciliation between the odds and traditional indicators. The money on Biden is starting to even out, to match the generally rosy picture for the former vice president in the polls.
What are the Odds Donald Trump Wins Re-Election?
A raft of bad news sets Trump back to +100 after the president spent a few weeks either even or slightly favored. The fallout from Trump’s alleged comments about military members killed in action being “losers” and “suckers” is uncertain. The story’s anonymous sourcing means it’s unlikely to convince anyone who was already voting for Trump, but the story seems to have more traction than past allegations — or on-record comments.
Journalist Bob Woodward’s recording of Trump admitting he was “playing down” the coronavirus threat has made bigger waves, especially as cases and deaths continue. There’s also the more conventional action-balancing factor now that the money’s no longer heavily in his favor. It’s not all bad news for Trump: New polls show he has made up ground with Florida Latinos, a group that could be decisive if he can claw back even a few seniors disappointed with his pandemic response. He’s also the far-and-away favorite among bettors to win the first debate, scheduled for Sept. 29.
Candidates with Longer than +10000 Odds
Among the longshots, Vice President Mike Pence (+20000), former Sen. Hillary Clinton (+25000) and rapper Kanye West (+50000) remain in place, as does Democratic VP nominee Kamala Harris (+10000).
Swing State Odds
Likely owing to his strong Latino numbers, the parties are deadlocked in Florida at -118. And the margin in Arizona is negligible — the Democrats are at -125, the GOP at -112. Democrats, however, are still favored by decent margins in Michigan (-265 to +180), Pennsylvania (-167 to +120), and Wisconsin (-200 to +140), predicting 278 Electoral College votes and the White House for Biden.
CHECK OUT: The Latest Swing State Odds
Electoral College Odds
Despite the trends in individual candidates and states, the best odds (+500) are for Republicans to roughly repeat their 306-vote victory, with Democrats at +650 to reach 270.
Next Winning Party Odds
|Political Party||Odds to Win Presidency|
Democrats move to -125 as Republicans fall a bit to +100. All other parties remain at +8000.
NOTE: Betting on politics is not legalized in the U.S. but heavily bet on in Europe. For more info on political betting in general as well as coverage of the latest news affecting the odds, be sure to check out our guide to betting on politics.
About the Author
Anthony Bennett covers the US political betting market for Bookies.com with a concentration on the presidential election. Anthony is also a political contributor for Heavy.com. Check in each week to get Anthony's weekly rundown of the current 2020 election odds as well as the rest of his political betting coverage, which includes breaking news affecting the odds and explaining trends to consider when betting US politics.