Swing-State Odds: Biden Widens Florida Gap; Michigan Narrows
President Donald Trump was able to flip six states in the 2016 election that voted for Barack Obama in 2012 — Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa and Ohio. Oddsmakers see four of the six flipping back to blue in 2020 — enough to flip the Electoral College.
Odds to win Florida and its 29 electoral votes moved Thursday from -182 for Democrat Joe Biden to -200. Trump and the Republicans slumped in the state to +140 from +130. Biden also strengthen in Maine, a state he was already heavily favored in. The presumptive Democratic nominee is now -715 there, up from -560.
Biden also is already favored to flip North Carolina to the Democrats. Barack Obama won that state in 2008 but lost in 2012. Democrats are just +110 underdogs in Ohio, +110 in Iowa and Georgia and +160 in Texas. To put that in perspective, oddsmakers give Biden a better shot at winning Texas than Trump has of winning New Hampshire, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.
There was some good news for Trump, though. In Michigan where he was a +325 underdog, the President is now +275. Biden dropped from -560 to -455 in the state. Trump also moved to +325 in Minnesota, where he was +350, as Biden fell to -560 from his high of -715. And in Ohio, Trump ticked up from -148 to -155 to keep the Buckeye State in his column.
Of the 16 key swing states for 2020, Democrats and Biden are favored in 12 of them. Trump is favored in four, and he’ll need to flip at least three or four more in order to win a second term. If the odds hold in terms of actual vote, Biden would win the Electoral College 334-204.
Even if Trump were to win the four states in which he is less of an underdog than the others (Florida, North Carolina, Arizona and New Hampshire), he would fall short.
CHECK OUT: Complete Odds In Key 2020 Senate Races
2020 Swing States Favoring Democrats
|North Carolina*||Democrats (-155)||Republicans (+110)|
|Arizona*||Democrats (-182)||Republicans (+130)|
|Florida*||Democrats (-200)||Republicans (+140)||New Hampshire||Democrats (-265)||Republicans (+180)|
|Pennsylvania*||Democrats (-305)||Republicans (+200)|
|Wisconsin*||Democrats (-305)||Republicans (+200)|
|Michigan*||Democrats (-455)||Republicans (+275)|
|Nevada||Democrats (-455)||Republicans (+275)|
|Minnesota||Democrats (-560)||Republicans (+325)|
|Virginia||Democrats (-670)||Republicans (+350)|
|Maine||Democrats (-715)||Republicans (+400)|
|Colorado||Democrats (-1250)||Republicans (+550)|
2020 Swing States Favoring Republicans
|Ohio||Republicans (-155)||Democrats (+110)|
|Georgia||Republicans (-155)||Democrats (+110)|
|Iowa||Republicans (-155)||Democrats (+110)|
|Texas||Republicans (-230)||Democrats (+160)|
Odds updated August 6
Latest Swing-State Developments
Iowa Trending Left
Iowa and Ohio are now the only states that flipped from Obama to Trump in which Republicans are still favored for the 2020 election. But the lead is slipping in both states.
Trump opened as a -560 favorite in Iowa when swing state odds were first posted. Now he’s down to -155, while Democrats are +110.
The sitting president carried Iowa by 10 points in 2016, part of a major Midwest coup that set the pieces in motion for his upset victory. Recent polls suggest Democrats have closed the gap in a big way for a state that has gone blue in six of the last eight Presidential elections. George W. Bush (2004) and Trump are the lone exceptions.
A Des Moines Register poll shows Trump with just a one-point lead over Biden. The massive change occurred in a matter of months, as the same polls showed Trump with a 10-point lead in March.
Trump’s erosion there and throughout the Midwest, including cratering odds in Ohio, where he is only a -155 favorite, may be hard to turn around. With Georgia and Texas now competitive both to pollsters and bookmakers, Trump’s campaign will be fighting on far more fronts that he had to in 2016.
Carolina On His Mind
Republicans were a -155 favorite to take the Tarheel State in early May, but those odds flipped in recent weeks as the Democrats pulled even and eventually took the lead.
Democrats are currently -155 favorites in North Carolina while Republicans have slipped to +110. It’s been one of the closest state races since odds were first posted, with Biden moving ahead in another state that once looked relatively safe for Trump.
Polls have consistently shown Biden with a small lead in the state. Biden also has widespread support from the state’s black voters at 83%.
North Carolina was supposed to host the Republican National Convention in August, but Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper wouldn’t guarantee Trump that he could hold the planned event in Charlotte at fully capacity due to coronavirus concerns. This started a back-and-forth between the two and Trump decided to move the convention to Jacksonville, Florida as a result. That has since been canceled and some RNC activity will remain in North Carolina.
Cooper is also running in 2020 and is a strong favorite in recent polls. There is also a highly competitive Senate race, too, with Democrats favored to flip the seat.
North Carolina has voted Republican in all but one election since 1976. Obama won the state in 2008, but North Carolina flipped to Mitt Romney in 2012 and Trump in 2016.
Democrats are favored with -200 odds to win back the Sunshine State, their best so far, after polls showed Biden with a double-digit lead in the state. This is one of the most troubling signs for Trump to date as his path to re-election gets smaller by the day.
Trump needed all six of those Obama states, but in particular Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, to spark his 2016 election over Hillary Clinton. Florida was the last remaining stronghold among those four, according to oddsmakers. It’s also familiar territory — Trump has made
Trump’s approval rating has also been slipping with Florida voters aged 65-and-older for more than a month amid lack of support for his administration’s coronavirus response. It probably won’t get any better in the demographic most at-risk for coronavirus as the state is now seeing record numbers of cases after re-opening in May.
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Top image via USA Today