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What Are The Odds Barbie Reaches $1B At The Box Office?

Mark Strotman for Bookies.com

Mark Strotman  | 5 mins

What Are The Odds Barbie Reaches $1B At The Box Office?

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Who’s ready for Barbie? Whether you grew up playing with the iconic fashion doll or its counterpart Ken, or you’re just interested in watching Margot Robbie, Ryan Gosling, and a host of other big-time actors on the big screen for 2+ hours, there’s no denying that this will be the biggest movie of the summer.

But just how big can this hit become? There’s been no shortage of marketing around the movie, which will follow Barbie and Ken’s journey into the real world. 

The A-list celebrities littering the cast include co-stars Robbie and Gosling, as well as Will Ferrell, Dua Lipa, Issa Rae, Helen Mirren, John Cena, Michael Cera, and Emerald Fennell and many more outstanding actors and celebrities.

Box office hits are more difficult to come by, but the movie industry has seen some signs of growth in the post-pandemic era. That could certainly be the case with Barbie, which is projected to earn $80-100 million at the box office on opening weekend.

Bookies.com's oddsmaker expert Adam Thompson has created odds on just how high Barbie’s box office can get. We’ll analyze those numbers below, explain what goes into box office “successes,” and get you ready for the hit of the summer, which will open this Friday, July 21.

Barbie Box Office Odds

Box Office NumbersOddsImplied Probability
Over $300 million-100090.1%
Over $500 million-50083.3%
Over $650 million-27573.3%
Over $800 million-10551.2%
Over $1 billion+11546.5%

Odds are projected and do not reflect any odds that may be available at legal betting sites or betting apps.

How Barbie Might Stack Up Against Other Blockbusters?

Per Box Office Mojo, the original Avatar in 2009 has earned a record $2.9 billion in worldwide lifetime gross revenue. That’s followed by Avengers: Endgame ($2.8 billion in 2019), Avatar: The Way of Water ($2.3 billion in 2022), and Titanic ($2.26 billion in 1997). Per those same numbers, 52 movies have earned $1 billion in lifetime gross box office sales.

What Are The Odds Barbie Reaches $1B At The Box Office? 1

Forty-seven other movies (99 total) have reached at least $800 million in revenue (including this author’s favorite, Coco), 182 total have reached $600 million in revenue (including another favorite in It), and 234 total have reached $500 million in revenue, rounded out by the 2000 Russell Crowe classic, Gladiator

More recently, nine movies in 2022 reached at least $600 million in worldwide box office revenue. That included Avatar: The Way of Water, Top Gun: Maverick, Jurassic World Dominion, and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever among others.

We’ll easily pencil in Barbie for at least $500 million—which Puss in Boots: The Last Wish was able to accomplish—and likely pencil it in for $650 million, which would surpass Water Gate Bridge’s $626 million. 

If you think Barbie hits the $1 billion mark, you’d put it in the same category as Jurassic World Dominion, which recently hit that mark after its June 2022 release.

Which States Are Most Interested in Barbie’s Release?

It’s safe to say that the entire country is excited about Barbie’s release. Again, that could come in a number of different forms—you used to play with them as kids, your kids are playing with them, or you enjoy seeing attractive people in scantily clad clothes on your movie theater screen—and we won’t blame you if the release has become a guilty pleasure for you. 

It wouldn’t surprise us if the movie hovers around the 90% mark on Rotten Tomatoes, though that’s pure speculation at this point in time.

But which states are most excited about the release? Look no further than … Utah? We looked at Google Trends to see which states have searched Barbie most over the last three months, and the Beehive State is leading the way. 

While that confused us a little, California taking the third spot in the rankings (behind Washington, D.C.) made total sense. Much of the movie was filmed in Venice Beach and Hollywood still rules the film industry. 

There are also more movie theaters in California than anywhere else in the country.

Oregon and Arizona (fifth and sixth, respectively) kept the West Coast trend rolling, while Idaho, Alaska, and Nebraska ranking in the top-10 shows that maybe fewer big cities and activity means hitting up the movie theater is more enjoyable—or those states just really like Margot Robbie. We wouldn’t blame them.

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What Makes a Box Office Success?

This is a tough one. I’m a writer—not a mathematician—so this isn’t groundbreaking information to say that a box office success is one that makes more money than its overall costs (filming, marketing, etc.). The new rule of thumb in Hollywood is that a successful movie is one that brings in 2.5x its costs.

There has been speculation that Barbie’s production budget was around $100 million and its marketing budget could be just as much. If we put that total at $200 million, a successful number for Barbie to hit is $500 million. As our odds show, there’s a really good chance that this movie is a massive success. 

The only question is whether it’s a nice movie for a summer or one that becomes an all-time classic. We’ll bet on the latter happening, and we’ll see you at the movies soon.

About the Author

Mark Strotman for Bookies.com
Mark Strotman
Mark is a veteran sports betting journalist who has covered the Bulls and the NBA since 2012. His work has appeared on ESPN.com, FoxSports.com, The Chicago Tribune and Yahoo Sports. He regularly provides NBA betting picks, as well as in-depth sportsbook reviews and the latest promo codes for all the major sports gambling operators, including Caesars Sportsbook, BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel and more.