Who Will Be the Next Pope? Odds, Top Candidates and What Comes Next

The next Pope will lead more than 1.4 billion Roman Catholics around the world. Pope Francis, who died Monday at the age of 88, made history as the first pontiff from the Americas.

His successor could come from Asia, Europe, Africa—or even the United States.

How the Next Pope Will Be Chosen

Pope Francis led the Church for 12 years. Now, the process to elect his successor begins. Within the next 20 days, 120 of the Church’s 138 cardinals under the age of 80 will enter a conclave inside the Sistine Chapel at the Vatican. Cardinals over the age of 80 are not eligible to vote.

During the conclave, cardinals cast ballots four times per day. After 30 rounds of voting, only the top two vote-getters remain. The eventual winner must secure a two-thirds majority to become the next Pope.

Francis appointed more than 80% of the cardinals who will vote, giving the conclave a distinctly Francis-era tone. However, many insiders believe the next pontiff may take a more conservative approach compared to his predecessor.

These odds are for entertainment purposes only and are not available on any legal U.S. sports betting app.

Top Contenders To Be Next Pope

While legal U.S. sportsbooks such as DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM do not offer odds on the papal selection, it hasn’t stopped speculation from circulating. 

Kalshi, a regulated prediction market in the U.S., has not yet posted any markets either. However, novelty betting on current events—including the next Pope—is legal in some jurisdictions such as Ontario and UK. 

As was the case when Pope Francis was elected, there is no runaway favorite to emerge from the upcoming conclave. Here’s a look at five leading candidates:

🟢 Cardinal Pietro Parolin (70) – Italy +225 

As the Vatican Secretary of State under Francis, Parolin was the architect of much of the Church’s foreign policy. He is widely seen as a skilled diplomat and power broker—two traits critical in navigating a conclave. He is also considered the most likely European choice.

🟢 Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (67) – Philippines +250 

Often referred to as the “Asian Francis,” Tagle is viewed as a progressive voice who could continue the policies of his predecessor. His deep humility and global perspective could make him an appealing option. A pope from Asia would also energize the fastest-growing region in the Catholic world.

🟢 Cardinal Péter Erdő (72) – Hungary +500

Erdő represents a more conservative vision for the future of the Church. A staunch traditionalist, he has spoken out against accepting refugees into Hungary and has the backing of many who want to steer the Church back toward more orthodox practices.

🟢 Cardinal Peter Turkson (76) – Ghana +800

Turkson would become the first pope from Africa. He was elevated to cardinal by Pope John Paul II and became a close advisor to Francis on economic and environmental issues. His globalist outlook and deep experience could appeal to both progressives and traditionalists.

🟢 Cardinal Jose Tolentino de Mendonça (59) – Portugal +1000

Appointed cardinal by Francis in 2019, Tolentino has emphasized education and cultural engagement. His youth (by papal standards) could offer a longer-term pontificate, but his relative newness to the global stage may hinder his chances.