David Caraviello for Bookies.com

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Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead Odds and 7 Best Bets to Back

Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead Odds and 7 Best Bets to Back
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For 21 consecutive years, NASCAR raced at Homestead-Miami Speedway in November. Before the coronavirus intervened, this season’s event in South Florida had been scheduled for March. Now the Cup Series will compete there in mid-June, when the temperature will hover around 90 degrees — making for blistering track temps and slick conditions.

With no practice, that means an on-the-fly learning curve. And given that no active driver has really dominated the place, the playing field could be as level as we’ve seen all season. That’s good news for bettors, who might unearth some value NASCAR betting options outside of the usual candidates, on a track that could produce a surprise in the top five or the top 10.

NASCAR Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead Drivers To Back

DriverBet Bet It At
Kyle Busch to Win+550DraftKings
Kevin Harvick Top 3+120Unibet
Denny Hamlin Top 3+275DraftKings
Toyota as Winning Manufacturer+150Unibet
Kurt Busch Top Chevrolet Driver+700DraftKings
Erik Jones Top 10+130888sport
Ryan Blaney Top 5+175DraftKings

Note: Odds current as of publication. Compare the latest NASCAR odds here.

Kyle Busch to Win

Kyle Busch’s struggles in two of the past four races have dropped him from the top of the odds list, providing additional value on one of the best drivers at Homestead. Busch hasn’t finished worse than sixth there since 2014 and he has two victories over that span, including last year’s championship clincher. While Busch can run hot and cold, he still has two runner-up finishes since NASCAR returned and is overdue for his first victory of the season. Bet him at +550 to win with DraftKings.

Kevin Harvick Top 3

The odds favorite to win (at +450), Kevin Harvick has been exceptional at Homestead, though he has just one victory there. In 19 starts, he has finished outside the top 10 just twice, last in 2007. His average finish of 6.4 is best among active drivers. Harvick has finished outside the top 10 in two of his past three starts but both of those came on short tracks, and a 1-mile oval will be more to his liking. Bet Harvick at +120 for a Top 3 with Unibet.

Denny Hamlin Top 3

Like Harvick, Denny Hamlin is always fast at Homestead. He just doesn’t always get the finishes to show for it. But he’ll start from the pole for the fifth time in six years (this time thanks to a random draw), and Homestead winners regularly come from the top five. Hamlin also is one of just two active drivers (along with Busch) with multiple wins at Homestead, enough for him to merit strong consideration from bettors on Sunday. Bet him for a Top 3 at +275 with DraftKings.

Toyota as Winning Manufacturer

Martin Truex Jr.’s victory at Martinsville on Wednesday snapped a two-race win streak for Ford and gave Toyota its third victory in 2020. A wager on Toyota at Homestead carries a tad more value than betting on Ford (the favorite among manufacturers at +125), and provides bettors with three legitimate contenders to win in Busch, Hamlin and Truex — the latter of whom has three straight top-two finishes at the track. Bet on Toyota to win at +150 with Unibet.


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Kurt Busch Top Chevrolet Driver

We continue to ride for Kurt, the elder Busch brother, who has finished outside the top 10 just once since February yet remains undervalued from an odds perspective. While he hasn’t finished better than 10th at Homestead since 2015, his results this season have been consistently reliable regardless of the location. Homestead is among Jimmie Johnson’s worst tracks and Chase Elliott has just four starts there, making Busch a solid option to carry the bow tie banner. Bet on Kurt Busch for top Chevy driver at +700 with DraftKings.



Erik Jones Top 10

Looking for a potential surprise? Erik Jones, the overlooked member of the Joe Gibbs Racing stable, has posted three top-10s since NASCAR returned and finished third at Homestead last year. He’ll have an unbelievable wealth of information to draw from, given the success his three teammates have enjoyed at the track. Homestead on Sunday promises to be fast and slippery, the type of layout Jones historically thrives on. Bet on Jones for a top-10 at +130 with 888sport. If you’re feeling especially bold, he’s also +500 to snag a top-five finish.

Ryan Blaney Top 5

Overshadowed by Harvick and Brad Keselowski among Ford drivers, Ryan Blaney has quietly been on a great run that has lifted him to sixth in points. The Team Penske driver finished fourth or better in four of his past five starts, including second at Martinsville. Blaney has shown gradual improvement at Homestead, finishing a career-best 11th there last year. Taking him to win at +1200 might be ambitious, but he’s capable of a high finish given what he has shown recently. Bet on Blaney at +175 with DraftKings.

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