David Caraviello for Bookies.com

By David Caraviello | | 6 mins

NASCAR at Michigan: Firekeepers Casino 400 Odds, Tips & Picks

NASCAR at Michigan: Firekeepers Casino 400 Odds, Tips & Picks

It’s another weekend doubleheader for NASCAR’s top series, which competes Saturday and Sunday in identical 400-milers at Michigan International Speedway. For NASCAR betting, that again means all eyes are on Kevin Harvick, the favorite Saturday at +400, who has won two of the last three events on the super-fast 2-mile Michigan oval.

But though he’s the odds favorite every week — understandably so, given his seven straight top-five finishes — Harvick can’t win every race. He hasn’t won since Indianapolis and his four wins in 2020 trail Denny Hamlin, who has five. Harvick is best in the business at being fast off the truck, but on a race-to-race basis, there’s more value to be had. Savvy bettors should take advantage. Michigan rewards horsepower and six active drivers have multiple wins there, so it might be time to fade Harvick a bit on what is typically a very competitive track.

Firekeepers Casino 400 Betting Odds To Back

Driver prop Odds Bet It At
Joey Logano
to Win
+800 BetAmerica
Kevin Harvick
Top 3
+115 Unibet
Brad Keselowski
Top 3
+195 BetMGM
Ford Winning
Manufacturer
-106 DraftKings
Chase Elliott
Top Chevrolet
+140 Unibet
Martin Truex Jr.
Top Toyota
+220 BetMGM
Aric Almirola
Top 10
-195 DraftKings

Note: Odds current as of publication. Compare the latest NASCAR odds here.

Joey Logano to Win

When the NASCAR Cup Series season restarted, Joey Logano looked every bit like someone missing the practice sessions that had been eliminated. But the best driver of the pre-hiatus period might have found his footing, with top-fours in two of his last three starts. Logano is very good at Michigan, where he has won three times (most recently in the 2019 spring race) and notched top-10s in 12 of his past 14 starts. The value is also tough to resist. Bet on Logano to win at BetAmerica.

Kevin Harvick Top 3

Of course, we’re not going to ignore Harvick completely, especially given his torrid run since late June. He also has been ridiculously good at Michigan, with two victories and a runner-up finish over his past four starts. In his past 14 Michigan races, Harvick has placed in the top five 10 times. Taking Harvick here also lets bettors select a winner who carries more potential value. Bet on Harvick for a Top-3 run at Unibet.

Brad Keselowski Top 3

We’re going with another red-hot Ford stablemate to complete our lead triumvirate. Over his past seven races Brad Keselowski has one finish worse than ninth, capped by a victory at New Hampshire. He’s another driver with a very good track record at Michigan, where he’s notched top-10s in nine of his last 12. Keselowski has never won at Michigan, his home state, but he’s very capable of it. This is good value for a driver of his status. Wager on Keselowski for a Top-3 at BetMGM.


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Ford Winning Manufacturer

Oddsmakers appear to have finally gotten wise to Ford, which snapped its modest two-race winless skid with Keselowski’s victory last weekend. That was the 11th win in 20 races this season for Ford, which continues to set the Cup Series standard. Ford has also won four straight at Michigan, a large, fast oval where that proven horsepower could be tough to beat — evidenced by the negative number on the manufacturer’s odds to win. Bank on Ford with DraftKings.

Chase Elliott Top Chevrolet

Like his dad Bill, the younger Elliott is fearless on big tracks, backed up by his results at a Michigan layout where drivers regularly eclipse 200 mph. In eight career starts he has finished outside the top nine just once, and has a trio of runner-up results. Chase Elliott has been inconsistent since winning at Charlotte in late May, but he has shown enough to make him the top choice from a shallow Chevy stable. Wager on Elliott as top Chevy with Unibet.

Martin Truex Jr. Top Toyota (+220, BetMGM)

Hamlin leads the circuit in victories and was runner-up in the most recent race at Michigan last summer, but Martin Truex is the sneaky-good choice to pace Toyota on Saturday. Plus, Truex brings added value. He has finished fourth and third in his past two starts in Brooklyn, and sixth or better in six of his past 10. Truex has also been warming up this season, with top-three runs in three of his past four. Wager on Truex with BetMGM.

Aric Almirola Top 10

Oddsmakers have finally come around on Aric Almirola, who continues to extend the best stretch of his career — he has top-10 finishes in nine consecutive starts. Almirola’s Michigan results have been pedestrian bordering on bad, with one top-10 in 15 career starts and an average finish of 19.3. But he has blown away his previous stats lately, thriving with Ford power and Stewart-Haas equipment. Bettors should enjoy the ride with Almirola for a Top-10 at DraftKings.

NASCAR at Michigan Saturday Race Information

Race Name: Firekeepers Casino 400

When: 4 p.m. Saturday

Where: Michigan International Speedway, Brooklyn, Michigan

TV: NBCSN


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