Tagovailoa NFL Announcement Impacts Alabama 2020 Betting Odds
Alabama junior quarterback Tua Tagovailoa announced Monday he is leaving school and will declare for the 2020 NFL Draft, changing the Crimson Tide college football betting futures betting outlook while unofficially opening a QB competition in Tuscaloosa.
DraftKings listed Alabama at +125 to win the SEC next season prior to Tagovailoa’s announcement, just behind favorite and defending champion LSU (-125). Those odds went up to +130 immediately after Tagovailoa’s decision, while the Tigers’ odds went down to -134.
Tagovailoa is also off the 2020 Heisman Trophy betting board, where he previously had the third-lowest college football futures odds at +600 behind Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields (+300) and Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence (+400).
Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa has declared for the NFL Draft.— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) January 6, 2020
Tua's career Total QBR of 93.4 at Alabama is the best in the history of the metric (since 2004).
Tua set school records for Pass TD (87) and 300-yd games (10) at Alabama. pic.twitter.com/O68vBhXv2S
Tagovailoa never won the Heisman Trophy but had a storied three-year career that included the game-winning touchdown pass in overtime of the 2018 National Championship against Georgia. He was a Heisman betting favorite for much of the past season before suffering a season-ending hip injury against Mississippi State.
All told, Tagovailoa had 7,442 passing yards and 87 touchdowns to just 11 interceptions in 32 career games for the Tide. His QBR rating of 93.4 is the highest in college football since the stat was first used in 2004.
Tua Tagovailoa as NFL Draft Prospect
He’s an intriguing NFL Draft prospect considering teams don’t yet know how he’ll recover from the dislocated hip. It’s a serious injury that Tagovailoa will continue to rehab in Tuscaloosa for the time being.
Now Alabama will begin its search for a starting quarterback in a unique position as the SEC underdog entering 2020. The Tide have won the conference in four of the past six seasons and LSU will also have to replace senior quarterback Joe Burrow, the likely No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. DraftKings lists Burrow at -1250 to be the first pick and now has Tagovailoa +1600, third behind Ohio State defensive lineman Chase Young (+500).
After a legendary career with Alabama, Tua Tagovailoa announces he will enter the 2020 NFL Draft. pic.twitter.com/xsE34IGJlf— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) January 6, 2020
Alabama 2020 QB Derby Begins
Mac Jones is the most experienced quarterback on Alabama’s roster. The junior-to-be threw for 1,503 yards and 14 touchdowns while making four starts in place of Tagovailoa this season.
Tagovailoa’s younger brother, Taulia Tagovailoa, will compete for the job entering his second year with the program, as will incoming freshman Bryce Young. Young, rated a five-star prospect, was named All-American Bowl MVP Saturday and will enroll at Alabama this spring.
Jones is listed alongside projected LSU starting quarterback Myles Brennan with the fifth-lowest 2020 Heisman betting odds at +1000. Taulia Tagovailoa is +4000 and Bryce Young is listed at +5000.
The Tide’s schedule is a bit of mixed bag to consider with those +130 SEC title odds. Alabama opens against USC at AT&T Stadium in Dallas and gets Georgia and Auburn at home. But Nick Saban and Co. travel to Death Valley Nov. 7 coming off LSU’s 46-41 win last fall in Tuscaloosa.
We’ll see how the national championship futures odds and Tagovailoa’s draft prospects progress in the coming months. For now, his departure just added a bit of value on the Tide’s 2020 SEC outlook.