The Octagon heads to Miami-Dade Arena in Miami, Florida this weekend for UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2. The headliner is a rematch between UFC middleweight champion Alex Pereira and his rival Israel Adesanya, and there are 13 other fights on the card. 

For our latest UFC picks, we will break down the headliner of the card as well as two undercard bouts.

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UFC 287 Main Event Best Bet

Israel Adesanya (-130) vs. Alex Pereira (+110)

The main event of UFC 287 is the rematch between UFC middleweight champion Alex Pereira and former champ Israel Adesanya. 

Despite being the challenger this time around, Adesanya is the -130 favorite to win at sports betting sites, and I’m leaning toward him to get his belt back.

These two fighters have met three times now in combat sports: twice in kickboxing and once in MMA. In kickboxing, Pereira won a decision over Adesanya and also knocked him out. Then, at UFC 281 last November, Pereira knocked out Adesanya in the Octagon to win the belt. 

Adesanya was winning most of the fight before the knockout in the fifth round, but at the end of the day, Pereira was the one who ended up getting his hand raised to become the new champ.

This rematch in MMA is very intriguing, especially given the history between these two fighters. In their first MMA fight last year at UFC 281, Adesanya was controlling most of the fight with his striking and grappling and appeared to be on his way to a decision win before fatiguing and getting finished by Pereira with strikes. 

Many people now think that Pereira has Adesanya’s number, and that’s certainly possible. But from what I saw in that first fight, Adesanya was the better mixed martial artist for almost all of the fight until he wasn’t, right at the very end.

Obviously, Pereira can land big shots and finish Adesanya – we just saw that happen last November. But overall, I still think Adesanya is the better MMA fighter, and I think he has the advantages in this fight as far as volume striking and grappling goes. 

He will need to be more careful this time around, but if he protects his chin, I think he’ll get his belt back. I’m going with Adesanya at -130 to win the rematch and I like Adesanya to win the rematch by decision.

UFC 287 Best Bet: Israel Adesanya wins at -130 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC 287 Best Prop Bet: Israel Adesanya wins by decision at DraftKings Sportsbook

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Other UFC 287 Best Bets

Gilbert Burns (-475) vs. Jorge Masvidal (+380)

In the co-main event, Gilbert Burns takes on Jorge Masvidal in a battle of welterweight contenders. Burns is a heavy -475 UFC betting favorite to win the fight, and I fully expect him to do so.

Burns is one of the best welterweights in the world and he’s coming off of a flawless performance over Neil Magny earlier this year at UFC 283 when he won by submission. Although Burns is 36 years old now, I’d argue he’s in the prime of his career. 

He had a razor-close fight with top prospect Khamzat Chimaev last year that raised his stock despite losing a decision, where he showed how tough he is and how good his striking, cardio, and ground game are. He really is one of the best fighters in his weight class, and he’s closing in on getting another title shot after he was KO’d by former champ Kamaru Usman two years ago.

As for Masvidal, I feel like he’s reached the decline phase of his career now at age 38. He’s lost three straight fights, albeit two of those being losses to Usman and one to Colby Covington. But it’s not just losing the fights, it’s the way he lost. 

He was not competitive in any of those fights, and his three-fight win streak back in 2019 that turned him into a superstar feels like it was ages ago. Masvidal has 50 pro fights and he is very experienced in the cage, but all of those fights mean that he’s taken quite a bit of damage during his career. He also doesn’t have good takedown defense. 

That means this fight with Burns is a bad matchup, hence the odds being stacked against him. He has a puncher’s chance to win the fight, but that’s probably about it.

I expect Burns to use his grappling to take Masvidal down and control him on the ground for 15 minutes. Give me Burns to win the fight at -475, and take him to win by decision for a prop.

UFC 287 Best Bet: Gilbert Burns wins at -475 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC 287 Best Prop Bet: Gilbert Burns wins by decision at DraftKings Sportsbook

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Raul Rosas Jr. (-230) vs. Christian Rodriguez (+195)

Opening up the main card, Raul Rosas Jr. fights Christian Rodriguez in a bantamweight bout. Rosas Jr. is a -230 betting favorite, and I like him to win this fight.

Rosas Jr. is just 18 years of age, making him the youngest fighter on the UFC roster. He turned pro at age 17 and he has since won all seven of his fights, including five of them by submission. 

In his UFC debut, Rosas Jr. submitted veteran Jay Perrin with a neck crank in a very impressive performance. Before that, he tapped out Mando Gutierrez on Dana White’s Contender Series to land a UFC contract. Overall, Rosas Jr. is a very impressive young fighter with excellent grappling skills. The sky's the limit for him, and he could have a very long UFC career.

Rodriguez is only 25 years old, so he’s also a young prospect with plenty of promise. Having turned pro in 2019, Rodriguez has an 8-1 record with seven wins coming by way of knockout or submission. After losing by decision to Jonathan Pearce in a featherweight bout in his UFC debut on short notice, Rodriguez dropped back down to bantamweight and he beat Joshua Weems by submission in the first round. 

He’s a talented fighter, to be sure. But looking back at the Pearce fight, there were plenty of spots where Rodriguez was put in bad positions on the mat. Going up against Rosas Jr., if he does that, he’s likely going to end up getting subbed.

I’m going with Rosas Jr. to win this fight as a -230 betting favorite on betting apps. Given how many bad spots Rodriguez was in on the ground against Pearce, I think there’s a hole there that Rosas Jr. can take advantage of, and I’m going with Rosas Jr. to win this fight by submission.

UFC 287 Best Bet: Raul Rosas Jr. wins at -230 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC 287 Best Prop Bet: Raul Rosas Jr. wins by submission at DraftKings Sportsbook

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