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UFC 291 Odds, Picks & Predictions For Poirier vs. Gaethje 2

Adam Martin for Bookies.com

Adam Martin  | 10 mins

UFC 291 Odds, Picks & Predictions For Poirier vs. Gaethje 2

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This Saturday, UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 takes place at Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. The main event sees the vacant BMF title on the line when two of the sport’s most exciting fighters, Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje, meet in a rematch. 

In addition to the headliner, there are 11 undercard bouts. We’ll give our take on the main event and two of the preliminary card fights right here in the latest Bookies.com UFC picks for UFC 291.

Favorite Underdog
Dustin Poirier | -150 Justin Gaethje | +130

Odds via DraftKings sportsbook and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review.

UFC 291 Main Event Best Bet

Dustin Poirier (-150) vs. Justin Gaethje (+130)

In the main event of UFC 291, Dustin Poirier fights Justin Gaethje in a five-round lightweight bout for the vacant BMF title. Poirier is a -150 betting apps favorite, and I favor him to beat Gaethje again. These two previously met in 2018, with Poirier winning that fight via fourth-round knockout.

Poirier joined the UFC back in 2011 and his record is 21-6, 1 NC in the Octagon overall. Now 34 years of age, Poirier is not a young stud anymore but he continues to have tremendous performances inside the Octagon. 

He has won four of his last five fights, including notable wins over Michael Chandler, Conor McGregor (twice), and Dan Hooker during that time span, with his lone defeat during that stretch coming against the former champ Charles Oliveira. 

Poirier is dangerous everywhere, with some of the best striking at 155 lbs, awesome cardio, a good chin, and slick submissions. One day, Poirier will surely be inducted into the UFC Hall of Fame.

Gaethje is also one of the best lightweights in the UFC. Dating back to his debut in 2017, the 34-year-old Gaethje has a 7-4 record in the Octagon while fighting the best opponents the lightweight division has to offer. 

He has some of the most devastating striking skills at his weight class and he has a great chin too, leading to exciting fights, not to mention his elite conditioning. He is one of the best fighters in the world at 155 lbs, however, it feels like Poirier is his kryptonite. These two have fought before, with Poirier winning by knockout, and unless Gaethje is able to make some serious changes to his game plan, it will be an uphill climb for him again.

I expect this fight to look similar to the first fight between them back in 2018, with Poirier landing the more effective strikes along the way and finishing Gaethje with strikes late in the fight. Take Poirier at -150 and go with him to win the fight by knockout for a prop bet.

UFC 291 Best Bet: Dustin Poirier wins at -150 at DraftKings Sportsbook  

UFC 291 Best Prop Bet: Dustin Poirier wins by TKO at DraftKings Sportsbook  

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Other UFC 291 Best Bets

Bobby Green (-400) vs. Tony Ferguson (+300)

Also on the main card, Bobby Green fights Tony Ferguson at lightweight. Green is a -400 favorite, and I like him to send Ferguson packing from the UFC with a clear-cut win here.

Green is 36 now and he has been in the UFC since 2013, holding a 10-9-1, 1 NC record overall in the promotion while consistently fighting the best in the world at his weight class. Green is one of the best pure boxers in the division and he has solid wrestling as well, making him a well-rounded fighter. 

His fight IQ can be questionable at times as he tends to keep his hands low and it has cost him several knockout losses throughout his career. That being said, he is a very tough, experienced, and skilled fighter who still has a bit of gas left in his tank at age 36.

Ferguson is 39 and he has a 15-6 record in the UFC since joining the promotion back in 2011. For many years, Ferguson was the cream of the crop at lightweight and one of the top contenders in his weight class. 

However, he has really fallen off a cliff in recent years. Ferguson has lost his last five fights in a row, and he hasn’t been very competitive in any of them. He is still ultra-tough, but all of the damage has really taken a toll on him, and he’s an auto-fade now.

Green has some of the best boxing at lightweight, and I expect him to utilize his jab and really touch up Ferguson’s face here, bloodying up his nose and causing all sorts of visual damage. Ferguson is tough enough to make it to the bell but give me Green to win as a -400 favorite and take him to win by decision if you like props.

UFC 291 Best Bet: Bobby Green wins at -400 at DraftKings Sportsbook  

UFC 291 Best Prop Bet: Bobby Green wins by decision at DraftKings Sportsbook  

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Gabriel Bonfim (-320) vs. Trevin Giles (+265)

On the prelims, Gabriel Bonfim fights Trevin Giles at middleweight. Bonfim is a -320 favorite, and I like him to remain undefeated with another stoppage win.

Bonfim is only 25 years old and he is already 1-0 in the UFC with a submission win over Mounir Lazzez. A pro dating back to 2014, Bonfim has 14 wins, and all of them have come by either knockout or submission. He has never tasted defeat before and the UFC is giving him a very winnable matchup here in a prime spot on the card. 

The fact that Bonfim is being slotted into the featured prelim shows you how high the UFC is on him, and the betting odds reflect his talent.

As for the 30-year-old Giles, he has a 7-4 record in the UFC dating back to when he made his Octagon debut in 2017. Three of his wins have come by knockout, so he certainly has the power to put his opponents away, but he has also been finished in all four of his losses – twice by knockout and twice by decision. 

At this point, Giles seems like a gatekeeper. He is a solid fighter, but he is not a contender, and it looks like the UFC wants to build Bonfim off of him.

Bonfim is one of the 185 lbs division’s top prospects, and Giles is someone who has shown to have poor submission defense. Look for Bonfim to get this fight to the floor one way or another and submit Giles to keep his unbeaten record intact. Take Bonfim to win as a -320 favorite and take him to win by submission for a prop bet.

UFC 291 Best Bet: Gabriel Bonfim wins at -320 at DraftKings Sportsbook  

UFC 291 Best Prop Bet: Gabriel Bonfim wins by submission at Sportsbook  

About the Author

Adam Martin for Bookies.com
Adam Martin
A writer based out of Toronto, Adam Martin has covered professional sports, with an emphasis on sports gambling, for more than a decade, writing for such outlets as The Toronto Star and Sportsnet. He is an expert in UFC, while also covering NHL betting and the Stanley Cup.