UFC 321 Odds, Picks, Predictions & UFC Best Bets for Aspinall vs. Gane
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The Octagon travels to Abu Dhabi, UAE this Saturday for UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane. There are two title fights set for this card, including Tom Aspinall vs. Cyril Gane battling for the UFC heavyweight title in the main event, plus 12 undercard bouts. In the latest edition of the Bookies.com Best Bets, we will break down the two title fights plus one undercard bout for you.
UFC odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings Sportsbook Review.
UFC 321 Main Event Best Bet
Tom Aspinall (-380) vs. Ciryl Gane (+300)
The headliner of UFC 321 is the UFC heavyweight title bout between champion Tom Aspinall and challenger Ciryl Gane. Aspinall is a -380 favorite, and I think he finishes this fight early.
Aspinall is 32, and he is 8-1 in the UFC. The Brit joined the UFC in 2020, and he has won all but one of his fights inside the Octagon, with all of his finishes coming by stoppage and his lone loss coming by injury. Aspinall has huge knockout power and he is also a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. He is one of the best heavyweights we have ever seen in MMA, and he keeps getting better. He has not fought in over a year, but figures to take his frustrations out on Gane in this fight after having a superfight with Jon Jones fall out, which derailed his career for 15 months.
Gane is 35, and he is 10-2 in the UFC. The Frenchman joined the UFC in 2019 and he has had an incredible run inside the Octagon since then. He has six finishes in his career, and his only losses are to two of the best heavyweights in the sport in the aforementioned Jones and Francis Ngannnou. Gane has great striking skills and he also has submission skills on the floor, making him a very well-rounded and dangerous fighter. That being said, he is now taking on Aspinall, who is one of the best heavyweights we have ever seen, and on paper, this is a tough matchup.
Look for Aspinall to take Gane to the ground early in the first round and lock up a submission. Take Aspinall and under 2.5 rounds in a SGP at -165 odds for our best bet in this title fight.
UFC 321 Best Bet: Tom Aspinall and under 2.5 rounds SGP at -165 with DraftKings Sportsbook
Other 321 Best Bets
Mackenzie Dern (-166) vs. Virna Jandiroba (+140)
The co-main event is the vacant UFC women’s strawweight bout between Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba. Despite being a +140 underdog, I like Jandiroba to win this fight.
Dern is 32, and she is 10-5 in the UFC. The American joined the UFC in 2018, and she has proven to be a very good MMA fighter since then. She comes from a Brazilian jiu-jitsu background, and Dern has scored numerous highlight-reel submission wins in the Octagon. Her wrestling isn’t great, but she often finds a way to get the fight to the ground and lock up the submission. While her striking is still a work in progress, she has made it work. It’s also worth noting that Dern has a decision win over Jandiroba from 2020 from the first time they fought.
Jandiroba is 37, and she is 8-3 in the UFC. The Brazilian joined the UFC in 2019, and she has been a top women’s strawweight since then. Jandiroba has awesome wrestling and she is able to get most of her opponents down to the mat and grind them out on the floor. She also has slick submission skills. Her striking isn’t great, but she gets past that weakness in her game by taking her opponents down to the ground, so It will be interesting to see if she tests Dern’s BJJ. While Jandiroba might get caught by a sub, she should also have the superior top game in this fight.
This should be a competitive bout between two top women’s strawweights. Ultimately, I view Jandiroba as the better fighter right now, and think she edges out the decision in this bout. Go with Jandiroba to win as a +140 underdog, and consider Jandiroba by decision for a prop bet.
UFC 321 Best Bet: Virna Jandiroba wins at +140 with DraftKings Sportsbook
Jose Delgado (-148) vs. Nathaniel Wood (+124)
In the prelims, we have a featherweight bout between Jose Delgado and Nathaniel Wood. Delgado is a -148 favorite, and I like him to win this fight.
Delgado is 27, and he is 2-0 in the UFC. The American earned a UFC contract following a spectacular knockout win on Dana White’s Contender Series last summer, and since then he has picked up two more knockout wins in the UFC. Delgado has incredible knockout power and we have seen it in both of his UFC fights. He has won seven fights in a row overall, and all of his wins have come by knockout or submission, making him dangerous anywhere the fight goes.
Wood is 32, and he is 9-3 in the UFC. The Brit joined the UFC in 2018, and he has fought at both bantamweight and featherweight since then. He moved up to 145 lbs in 2022, and he has gone 5-1 in his new weight class, with all of those wins coming by decision. Wood has very good wrestling and he also has some power on the feet. However, he has been knocked out before, and his chin figures to be tested here when he takes on the knockout artist Delgado.
While Wood is a solid fighter, I think Delgado is the real deal and will soon be a top-15 ranked fighter. I believe this is the toughest test of Delgado’s career to date, but it’s a test he passes in flying colors, in my opinion. Go with Delgado to win at -148, and look for him to finish this fight.
UFC 321 Best Bet: Jose Delgado wins at -148 with DraftKings Sportsbook
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