The Octagon travels to T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri this Saturday for the latest UFC Fight Night card. The event is headlined by top-five-ranked featherweights Max Holloway and Arnold Allen, and it features 14 bouts overall. 

In our latest edition of UFC Best Bets, we'll give our best UFC picks for the main event, in addition to two undercard bouts.

UFC Kansas City Main Event Best Bet

Max Holloway (-185) vs. Arnold Allen (+150)

The main event of UFC Kansas City sees former UFC featherweight champion Max Holloway take on rising star Arnold Allen. Despite Allen being a +150 underdog on sports betting sites, I’m picking him to win.

Holloway is the former champ and one of the 145lb division’s greatest all-time talents. The 31-year-old Hawaiian is 19-6 overall in the UFC since joining the promotion in 2012, and his level of competition throughout his UFC career has been extraordinarily high. He has fought and defeated many of the best fighters in his division and, for the most part, has performed at an elite level. 

That being said, he has been in a lot of wars and has taken quite a bit of damage. There is a chance all that damage has finally added up and that he could finally hit the decline stage of his career. That’s why this fight against Allen will help us learn where Holloway is at.

Allen joined the UFC in 2015 and he has not lost since then, going a perfect 10-0 so far in the Octagon. The 29-year-old Brit has been built up very slowly and he now gets a huge step up in competition against Holloway. 

Given he has such a long win streak and his last few wins have been over ranked opponents, this is an opportunity that he deserves. He is a very well-rounded fighter with big power in his hands and a decent ground game, and a win over Holloway would help push Allen into the division’s elite. If he wants to get a title shot, this is his chance to do so.

Holloway is one of the best featherweights of all time, but Allen has won 10 straight fights and carries a tremendous amount of momentum into this fight. I believe Allen is catching Holloway at the right time, and I like him to get the upset as a +150 underdog. Take Allen to win on the moneyline, and if you are interested in a prop bet, consider taking Allen to win by decision.

UFC Kansas City Best Bet: Arnold Allen wins at +150 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Kansas City Best Prop Bet: Arnold Allen wins by decision at DraftKings Sportsbook

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Other UFC Kansas City Best Bets

Ion Cutelaba (-125) vs. Tanner Boser (+105)

Also on the main card, Ion Cutelaba faces off against Tanner Boser in a light heavyweight bout. Although Boser is the +105 UFC betting underdog, I’m picking him to get his hand raised here.

Cutelaba joined the UFC in 2016 and he has a 5-9 record so far, meaning this could be a must-win fight for the 29-year-old Moldovan native if he wants to keep his job in the UFC. He has knockout power, as evidenced by his three knockout wins, but Cutelaba is a very flawed fighter who has lost seven times by stoppage in the Octagon. 

For as much power as he carries, he is a glass cannon in that his durability is very questionable. In addition, Cutelaba also has a poor gas tank and generally only has about one round of cardio before he gets tired in his fights.

Boser, meanwhile, is 4-3 since joining the UFC in 2019, with three of his wins coming by knockout and all four losses coming by decision, showing his toughness. In fact, it can be argued that the 31-year-old Canadian should have won his last three decisions, so in an alternate universe with different judges, he could be 7-1 in the UFC. 

As it stands, he’s 4-3 and now making the move down to the light heavyweight division. Considering he was an undersized heavyweight, this is a great move for Boser and should help kickstart his career.

I think Boser’s finally in his proper weight class and I expect his power to carry down well to 205lbs. Give me Boser to win as a +105 underdog, and take him to win this fight by knockout.

UFC Kansas City Best Bet: Tanner Boser wins at +105 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Kansas City Best Prop Bet: Tanner Boser wins by TKO at DraftKings Sportsbook

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Rafa Garcia (-250) vs. Clay Guida (+210)

Kicking off the main card, Rafa Garcia takes on veteran Clay Guida in a lightweight contest. 

Garcia joined the UFC in 2021 and he’s gone 3-3 so far inside the Octagon. The 28-year-old Mexican has shown tremendous grappling skills throughout his UFC tenure, and he has the cardio skills to allow him to keep pushing a high pace late into the fight. 

His striking is also passable, but it’s his wrestling skills and his submission ability that are his bread and butter. He is looking for a big breakout performance, and this fight with Guida offers him that opportunity.

Guida, meanwhile, has been in the UFC since 2006 and he has racked up an incredible amount of experience since then, going 18-16 overall inside the Octagon. 

At age 41, he is one of the oldest fighters in the lightweight division, but he is still winning fights, having defeated Scott Holtzman in his last outing. That being said, he has not been able to put together consecutive wins since 2017, and at this point in his career, it feels safe to say he’s on the downside.

I think Garcia is the better fighter at this point in time, and I expect him to defeat Guida as a -250 favorite on betting apps. While a decision win is certainly possible, I also think there’s a good chance that Garcia wins this fight by submission, so definitely take a look at that prop if you like getting plus money.

UFC Kansas City Best Bet: Rafa Garcia wins at -250 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Kansas City Best Prop Bet: Rafa Garcia wins by submission at DraftKings Sportsbook

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