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UFC Long Island Odds, Betting Predictions & Expert Picks

Adam Martin for Bookies.com

Adam Martin  | 10 mins

UFC Long Island Odds, Betting Predictions & Expert Picks

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This weekend the UFC travels to UBS Arena in Elmont, New York for UFC Long Island. The card features 12 bouts in total, including a fantastic featherweight main event between Brian Ortega and Yair Rodriguez. 

Let's break down the headliner, as well as give our take on two other fights on the card in this week's UFC betting preview.

Favorite Underdog
Brian Ortega | -165 Yair Rodriguez | +140

Odds via DraftKings sportsbook and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review.

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UFC Long Island Betting Prediction & Pick

Brian Ortega (-165) vs Yair Rodriguez (+140)

The main event of UFC Long Island is a five-round featherweight bout between top-five ranked contenders Brian Ortega and Yair Rodriguez. I view this as a very competitive fight, but I’m going to take a shot on the underdog Rodriguez to get his hand raised at +140.

Let’s start with Ortega, since he’s the favorite. The 31-year-old American has been in the UFC since 2014 and he's earned a 7-2, 1 NC record with six of those wins coming by way of stoppage. 

Ortega is known for having one of the best submission games in the weight class, but he has also improved his striking attack in recent years, making him a well-rounded fighter. Though he lost a decision to UFC featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski in his last fight, the fact he went five hard rounds with the champ showed he’s still one of the best.

Now let’s talk about Rodriguez. Ever since entering the UFC in 2014, he has been one of the best fighters at 145lbs with an 8-2, 1 NC record. Rodriguez is one of the most exciting fighters in the weight class, having won eight post-fight bonuses in his UFC career. He has some of the best striking skills in the division and his grappling is improving. 

Although he lost to Max Holloway in his last fight, Rodriguez was a big underdog and performed well. That being said, he won’t want to grapple with Ortega and if this fight goes to the ground for an extended period of time, he could be in trouble. But if the fight stays on the feet, Rodriguez can score the upset and beat the odds on betting sites

UFC Long Island Odds, Betting Predictions & Expert Picks 2
 

One thing that stands out for me is the negative striking differential for Ortega. According to the UFC’s official statistics, both men land over 4 significant strikes per minute, but Ortega is absorbing nearly 7 per minute compared to 4 for Rodriguez. That is something that I can’t ignore here. 

If the fight stays standing, Rodriguez should be the cleaner striker, and his height and reach advantages should also play into his favor. It’s a close fight, but I’ll take a shot on Rodriguez as a +140 dog. You can also take a look at Rodriguez to win a decision at +340 odds, as Ortega should be durable enough to make it the distance in a loss.

The Pick: Yair Rodriguez wins at +140 with DraftKings

Alternative Pick: Yair Rodriguez wins by decision at +340 with FanDuel

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Su Mudaerji (-260) vs Matt Schnell (+220)

Also on the main card, Su Mudaerji takes on Matt Schnell in a flyweight bout. Sumudaerji has -260 odds to win the fight, and I believe he will get his hand raised here as the betting favorite.

Sumudaerji is just 26 years old, making him one of the youngest and most talented fighters on the UFC roster at 125lbs. “The Tibetan Eagle” is a deadly striker who has racked up a 3-1 record in the Octagon, including a 2-0 mark as a flyweight. 

He knocked out Malcolm Gordon in 44 seconds in his UFC flyweight debut, and then followed it up with a decision win over Zarrukh Adashev. Unfortunately, injuries have kept him out of the cage since January 2021. It's something to consider when wagering on betting apps, but I expect him to come back to the Octagon healthy and to start racking up more wins again. 

UFC Long Island Odds, Betting Predictions & Expert Picks 1
 
As for Schnell, the 32-year-old American has been in the UFC since 2016 and he has accumulated a 5-4, 1 NC record. While he has surprised at times with several upset wins along the way, he’s also been someone whose durability is a big question mark, having been finished four times in his losses. 

Schnell is a solid fighter overall and his submission game is very good, but his inability to take a punch really limits his ceiling in the weight class. Taking on a massive power puncher like Sumudaerji, he needs to be careful not to get caught.

With 15 minutes to work, I expect Sumudaerji to find Schnell’s chin and put him away with strikes. Give me Sumudaerji to win as a -260 favorite, and for better odds, you can take the prop on him by knockout.

The Pick: SuMudaerji wins at -260 with DraftKings

Alternative Pick: Su Mudaerji wins by TKO at -110 with DraftKings

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Dustin Jacoby (-130) vs. Da Un Jung (+110)

On the preliminary card, Dustin Jacoby takes on Da Un Jung in a battle of two underrated light heavyweights. It’s a competitive fight on paper, but I’m backing Jung as a +110 underdog.

Jacoby is the favorite in this fight, and I get it because he’s looked great overall since returning to the UFC in 2020, going 5-0-1. He has a tremendous striking pedigree and he is generally able to keep his fights standing and outpoint his opponents on the feet. 

However, he has shown some holes in his takedown defense (58%), and I believe his grappling is what is keeping him outside of the top 10. Jacoby is definitely one of the best strikers in the weight class, but I’m not convinced he has the well-rounded game needed to become a title contender.

As for Jung, he does have the well-rounded skills to make a run for the top 10. He’s just 28 years old and already has a 4-0-1 record in the UFC with three finishes. Jung can not only knock his opponents out on the feet, but he can also take them down and outwrestle them on the mat. 

On top of that, Jung has several physical advantages in this fight against Jacoby, including being five years younger and holding the edge in height and reach. I’ll give Jacoby a slight edge in striking, but Jung has power himself and he’s the better overall MMA fighter.

If this was a pure kickboxing match, I’d have to go with Jacoby, but since it’s MMA and grappling is involved, I believe Jung should be favored to win the fight. He should be able to mix it up more and outpoint Jacoby, so give me Jung to win at +110. Since Jacoby is so durable, you could also consider taking Jung to win a decision.

The Pick: Da Un Jung wins at +110 with DraftKings

Alternative Pick: Da Un Jung wins by decision +300 with DraftKings

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About the Author

Adam Martin for Bookies.com
Adam Martin
A writer based out of Toronto, Adam Martin has covered professional sports, with an emphasis on sports gambling, for more than a decade, writing for such outlets as The Toronto Star and Sportsnet. He is an expert in UFC, while also covering NHL betting and the Stanley Cup.