UFC Rio Odds, Picks, Predictions & UFC Best Bets for Gamrot vs. Oliveira
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The Octagon heads to Farmasi Arena in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil, this Saturday night for UFC Rio. The card features 13 fights, including a lightweight main event between top contenders Charles Oliveira and Mateusz Gamrot. In the latest edition of the Bookies.com Best Bets, we will give you our main event pick, plus take a closer look at two of the undercard bouts, as well.
UFC odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings Sportsbook Review.
UFC Rio Main Event Best Bet
Mateusz Gamrot (-118) vs. Charles Oliveira (-102)
The main event of UFC Rio is a five-round lightweight bout between Charles Oliveira and Mateusz Gamrot. Oliveira is a -102 underdog, and I expect him to get his hand raised.
Oliveira is 35, and he is 23-11, 1 NC in the UFC. The Brazilian legend first joined the UFC in 2010, and he has been one of the top MMA fighters during his 15 years inside the Octagon, finishing plenty of opponents along the way, and becoming the UFC lightweight champion at one point. While Oliveira is no longer the champion, he is still one of the top fighters in his division. He is incredibly dangerous both on the feet and on the mat, making him someone you need to be careful against anywhere the fight goes. Oliveira has been a fan favorite for so many years, and if he can get past Gamrot in this fight, it would keep him among the elite in his weight class.
Gamrot is 34, and he is 8-3 in the UFC. The Pole has always been a top lightweight contender since he joined the UFC in 2020, but he has yet to fight for the belt; he hopes to parlay a win here over Oliveira into a UFC lightweight title shot. An excellent grappler, Gamrot prefers to take his opponents down and grind them out. He is also very tough and has great cardio, making him a tough matchup for anyone in his weight class. That being said, he took on this fight against Oliveira on short notice to replace the injured Rafael Fiziev, and he has to fight him in enemy territory.
Oliveira’s biggest problem his entire career has been his chin, but in this matchup, Gamrot doesn’t really present fight-ending knockout power, which should keep Oliveira safe. Instead, I see Oliveira outstriking Gamrot on the feet and also doing more work on the mat over the course of 25 minutes. A finish is possible, but my pick is Oliveira to win this fight by decision. Go with Oliveia to win this fight as a -102 fight in front of his Brazilian fans in Rio de Janeiro.
UFC Rio Best Bet: Charles Oliveira wins at -102 with DraftKings Sportsbook
Other Rio Best Bets
Montel Jackson (-310) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (+250)
In the co-main event, we have bantamweights Montel Jackson and Deiveson Figueiredo matched up. Jackson is a -310 favorite, and I like him to win this fight.
Jackson is 33, and he is 9-2 in the UFC. The American has been on the UFC roster since 2018, and he has quietly worked his way up the bantamweight ladder to become a contender in the 135 lbs weight class. Jackson has won his last six fights in a row, and he has looked good in all of those fights, as he’s shown off a combination of powerful wrestling skills to go along with brutal knockout power on the feet. There is a lot to like about Figueiredo, and he is close to breaking into the bantamweight rankings; a win over Figueiredo would certainly get him there.
Figueiredo is 37, and he is 13-5-1 in the UFC. The former UFC flyweight champion moved to bantamweight in 2023, and since going up in weight, he is 3-2 in the weight class while fighting all of his bouts against either ranked fighters or former champions. Figueiredo has been a very good fighter since debuting in the UFC in 2017, but he may finally be showing some signs of decline. He has lost his last two fights coming into this bout, including his last loss by TKO due to an injury. Therefore, Jackson may be catching the Brazilian at the perfect time in his career.
Jackson should be able to take advantage of poor takedown defense by Figueiredo, taking him down to the mat repeatedly over the course of the three rounds. While a submission isn’t out of the question, Jackson by decision seems like the most obvious pick here. Either way, Jackson wins this fight. Take him to win as a -310 favorite and become a top contender in the process.
UFC Rio Best Bet: Montel Jackson wins at -310 with DraftKings Sportsbook .
Vitor Petrino (-298) vs. Thomas Petersen (+248)
In a heavyweight bout, Vitor Petrino faces Thomas Petersen. Petrino is a -298 favorite, and I believe he will knock Petersen out.
Petrino is 28, and he is 5-2 in the UFC. The Brazilian opened his UFC career as a light heavyweight, going 4-2 in the weight class, but losing his last two fights by stoppage and realizing he had to make a big career change. In his last fight, he moved up to heavyweight and picked up a vicious submission win over Austen Lane. It seems like Petrino has finally found his ideal weight class, and that is a big problem for the other heavyweights, as Petrino is a well-rounded and dangerous fighter who can both knock out and submit his opponents.
Petersen is 30, and he is 2-2 in the UFC. The American is a strong wrestler who likes to take his opponents down to the mat and grind them out on the floor. So far in the UFC, he has shown good wrestling skills, but not much in the way of striking. While he did win his last bout, he was brutally knocked out before that, and that could very well happen again in this bout. Petersen definitely has good wrestling skills, but if Petrino can stuff the takedowns, Petersen is in trouble.
Petrino should feed off the energy of the partisan crowd here and come out guns-a-blazing, catching Petersen on the chin and brutally knocking him out in the first round. Take Petrino to win this fight as a -298 favorite, and look for him to get the job done by KO.
UFC Rio Best Bet: Vitor Petrino wins at -298 with DraftKings Sportsbook .
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