The Octagon heads back to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada this Saturday night for UFC Vegas 75: Vettori vs. Cannonier. Two of the best middleweights in the world, Marvin Vettori and Jared Cannonier, meet for five rounds or less in the headliner, plus, there are 13 other undercard bouts on the card. 

For this week’s UFC picks, we will break down the main event of the evening as well as take a closer look at two of the preliminary bouts on the card.

UFC Vegas 75 Odds

UFC Vegas 75 Best Bet For Vettori vs. Cannonier

Marvin Vettori (-110) vs. Jared Cannonier (-110)

In the main event of UFC Vegas 75, Marvin Vettori takes on Jared Cannonier in a non-title, five-round middleweight bout. The betting odds are a Pick ‘em, with both men coming in at a -110 odds, and I like Vettori to get the job done here.

Vettori has proven for several years now to be one of the best middleweights in the UFC. The 29-year-old Italian has fought the best of the best at 185lbs, including two fights with the champion Israel Adesanya, though he lost both of those bouts. Still, he has shown that he is an extremely durable fighter who has great cardio and who can go five hard rounds. He has very good wrestling skills, solid striking, and an iron chin. 

Overall, he is one of the toughest fighters to defeat in the UFC middleweight division. While he has not tasted gold yet in the UFC, a win over Cannonier would be big for him as it would keep him firmly entrenched as one 185’s top dogs.

Cannonier is also an elite middleweight fighter who has proven he can hang with the best of them. At age 39, he is one of the oldest fighters in the weight class, but he is still going strong, as evidenced by wins last year over Sean Strickland and Derek Brunson. 

Cannonier is a big, strong, powerful striker who packs legitimate KO power in his punches. He, too, has lost in his title fight opportunity against Adesanya, but since he has only lost one time to the champ, there is still a path forward to the rematch. In order to get back to where he wants to be, he needs to take out the next man in his way, and that’s Vettori, who has never been knocked out before. 

If Cannonier goes in there and TKOs Vettori, he will be right back at the top of the division again.

Vettori and Cannonier should be a competitive fight that goes the full five rounds, but I like Vettori to pull through here with the win. Take Vettori at the -110 betting apps odds to get his hand raised, and if you want to bet on a prop, take a shot on the Italian to win this fight by decision.

UFC Vegas 75 Best Bet: Marvin Vettori wins at -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Vegas 75 Best Prop Bet: Marvin Vettori wins by decision at DraftKings Sportsbook

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Other Best Bets for UFC Vegas 75

Alessandro Costa (-250) vs. Jimmy Flick (+210)

On the prelims, it’s a flyweight battle as Alessandro Costa fights Jimmy Flick. Costa is a -250 favorite to win, and I believe he will not only win the fight but finish his opponent as well.

Costa had a tough UFC debut late last year, losing to top contender Amir Albazi by knockout in a fight he took on short notice. The 27-year-old Brazilian had won seven straight fights before that, including a win on Dana White’s Contender Series, to earn a shot in the Octagon in the first place.

He is a hard-hitting striker who can also submit his opponents on the ground, making him very dangerous anywhere the fight goes. Against Flick, he will be looking to get the knockout.

Flick is a submission master who has won 14 fights by tapout in his MMA career, including a flying triangle choke win over Cody Durden in his UFC debut back in 2020. The 32-year-old American has been a pro MMA fighter dating back to 2010, so he has a ton of experience in the sport, and he’s fought a high level of competition. 

That being said, after briefly retiring from the sport, Flick returned to the cage earlier this year and was brutally knocked out by Charles Johnson, a fighter not known for his power. In fact, Flick has been knocked out five times in his career. As dangerous as he is with his submissions, his poor striking defense is a glaring issue.

Costa is a hard hitter and Flick’s durability is very poor as he seems to not be able to take a punch. Give me Costa to win at -250, and for a prop bet, take him to win this fight by TKO.

Best Bet for UFC Vegas 75: Alessandro Costa wins at -250 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Vegas 75 Best Prop Bet: Alessandro Costa wins by TKO at DraftKings Sportsbook

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Tereza Bleda (-275) vs. Gabriella Fernandes (+225)

Also on the prelims, Tereza Bleda fights Gabriella Fernandes in a women’s flyweight bout. Bleda is a -275 favorite to win, and I like her to get the job done.

Bleda earned a UFC contract following a dominant win on Dana White’s Contender Series, and then made her UFC debut late last year, where she was finished by top prospect Natalia Silva. It wasn’t the debut that she had hoped for, but to be fair to Bleda, she lost to an incredible fighter.

Other than the Silva loss, Bleda hasn’t tasted defeat before. At just 21 years of age, she is one of the youngest fighters in the UFC, so she should be able to bounce back following that loss. She has exceptional wrestling skills, and it should help her win a lot of fights in her UFC career.

Fernandes, meanwhile, made her UFC debut earlier this year, where she lost a clear decision to Jasmine Jasudavicius. Prior to joining the UFC, the 29-year-old Brazilian was the former LFA flyweight champion. 

She entered the UFC off of seven straight wins but lost her debut, and the fight was not competitive. There appears to be a gaping hole here in regards to her takedown defense, so going up against someone like Bleda who will pursue takedowns should prove to be a difficult matchup for her. Given the stylistic matchup, Fernandes is the clear underdog here.

I like Bleda to use her wrestling skills to get Fernandes to the floor and grind her out for a unanimous decision win. Give me Bleda at -275 to win, and take her by decision for a prop.

UFC Vegas 75 Best Bet: Tereza Bleda wins at -275 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Vegas 75 Best Prop Bet: Tereza Bleda wins by decision at DraftKings Sportsbook

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