National Hunt Novices' Handicap Chase Trends for the 2026 Cheltenham Festival

By Mark Fordham

Feb 23rd, 2026 10:56 AM EST

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2026 National Hunt Novices' Handicap Chase Trends

The National Hunt Novices' Chase is a race that has changed significantly over the years, most recently in 2025 when it was decided that the race would become a handicap and be open to professional riders.

Here are the National Hunt Novices' Chase trends to be aware of before betting at top horse racing betting sites.

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The last 10 winners:

Had run at least twice over fences (every winner except Stattler had gone more than twice)
Had run at least twice that season, and four times in the past 12 months
Had won a hurdle race
Had won no more than four chases

Nine of the last 10 winners:

Last ran at least 31 days ago (exception Minella Rocco, 24 days)
Had run in a chase over at least 3m before - eight winning at least once (Le Breuil had not run over further than 2m7 1/2f)
Had won at least one chase (Minella Rocco)
Had run at Cheltenham before (Ravenhill)

Eight of the last 10 winners:

Did not run in a handicap last time out (Ravenhill, Haiti Couleurs)
Were ridden by a jockey based in Ireland (Joshua Newman on Midnight Prayer, Ben Jones on Haiti Couleurs)

Key Trials in the Last 10 Years

The are no standout trials for the National Hunt Novices' Chase, mainly due to it being such a long race at 3m6f and the recent changes to make it a handicap open to professional jockeys. However, it pays to follow Grade 3 novices chases run over 2m4f-3m in January and February.

Look for horses in those races that did not win but were placed or ran well. 2019 winner Le Breuil, for example, finished fourth in the Grade 2 Altcar Novices' Chase over 2m4f at Haydock, on his last run before Cheltenham Festival success, and Minella Rocco was second in the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot before his victory in 2016.

The 2022 winner Stattler won a 3m1f Grade 3 novice chase at Naas on his last run before Cheltenham. The third that day, Vanillier, filled the same position at Cheltenham. He had previously been third in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown, where Cheltenham second Run Wild Fred had been runner-up.

Four placed horses have come from the Grade 2 Ten Up Novice Chase at Navan, so that's one to keep a keen eye on, and it's worth noting only four of the last 12 winners had previously won a Graded race, while only four of the last 10 winners won their last outing.

Trainer Trends

Gordon Elliott is a master in this contest, winning the race four times since 2011. Interestingly, 2022 second Run Wild Fred was his first placed runner. Before that he’d never had a placed horse in the race, but he did have the second again in 2023 and third last year.
Willie Mullins has saddled four winners and four placed horses from 21 runners in the past 11 years. He also saddled two winners of the race when he was a jockey.
Jonjo O’Neill is the race’s winning-most trainer (six) but he’s only landed it once (Minella Rocco in 2016) since 2007.

Jockey Trends

This race used to be restricted to amateur riders, and those based in Ireland have won 13 of the last 15 renewals. Patrick Mullins became the race’s most successful rider when landing his fourth victory in 2023, whilst Derek O'Connor has won it twice in the last decade (2016 and 2024).

Only two of the 18 riders last year were amateurs, following the change to allow professional jockeys to take part, with Patrick Mullins finishing fifth and David Maxwell one place behind.

How Did the Trends Do Last Year?

Joint-favourite Haiti Couleurs fit the vast majority of trends last year. The Rebecca Curtis horse was a successful chase runner already, winning two out of his three goes over fences including at Cheltenham four months prior to the Festival, and had won twice in races of three miles or more.

Second-placed Rock My Way was also seasoned in chases, winning one of his seven runs over fences, and warmed up with a 3m attempt six weeks earlier. He was also a hurdle winner, having tasted glory at Cheltenham in January 2023.

2025 National Hunt Novices' Handicap Chase Result

Position	Name	Price	Trainer	Jockey
1st	Haiti Couleurs	7/2J	Rebecca Curtis	Ben Jones
2nd	Rock My Way	16/1	Joe Tizzard	Brendan Powell
3rd	Will Do	12/1	Gordon Elliott	Jack Kennedy

Who Fits The Trends Best In 2026?

This race changed in 2025 to be a handicap and allowed professional riders, making it one of the hardest to actually apply trends to in the whole of the festival.

Nevertheless, The Jukebox Kid could be one to watch. The seven-year-old has run four times this season and won three of those, including a Grade 2 on Valentine's Day. That being his most recent one would require him bucking a popular trend of needing at least 31 days' rest before Cheltenham, but the good news is that he's raced at the course before and was also a hurdle winner.

2025's winning trainer Rebecca Curtis also looks to have a great contender in Newton Tornado after a pair of nice chase wins earlier this season. The seven year-old won a hurdle race last year, and his two aforementioned fences wins were both over 3m, plus he's gone twice at Cheltenham before so knows the way around.

2026 National Hunt Novices' Handicap Chase Odds

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About the Author

Mark Fordham

More About Mark

Mark spent over a decade as a sports reporter and editor with Goal.com and Bleacher Report. He is now a Content Editor at Bookies.com covering all manner of sports from the Premier League and cricket to the NBA and NFL, and is our resident EPL tipster. Mark also has years of experience working with all things online casino, and knows a good one from a bad one.