County Hurdle Trends For The 2026 Cheltenham Festival

By James Stoddart

Feb 26th, 2026 6:07 AM EST

Fact Checked By Oliver Lines

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Cheltenham County Hurdle Trends

Race trends are the best place to start when looking for the winner of a tricky Cheltenham Festival handicap. We've taken a look at the most important County Hurdle trends from the last 10 years, and used them to find you the best horses to follow when placing your punts with the best horse racing betting sites.

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The last 10 winners:

Had won no more than five hurdle races; eight won no more than three.
Had won no more than two handicap hurdles. Three had never run in one (Saint Roi, State Man & Kargese).
Were aged 5-8; but seven were aged 5 or 6.
Had never won at Cheltenham before.
Had won a hurdle race with a distance of 2m-2m1f.

Nine of the last 10 winners:

Carried 11st 5lbs or less (Arctic Fire, 11st 12lb).
Had run no more than four times that season, five had won (Belfast Banter had 10 runs).

Eight of the last 10 winners:

Finished in the top three last time out. Arctic Fire finished 2nd last time out but that was in the previous year (Absurde 4th and Faivoir pulled up).
Had never won a Grade 1 race before (Arctic Fire & Kargese).

Seven of the last 10 winners:

Weren't betting favourites (State Man, Saint Roi & Kargese won as favourites).
Were rated between 137 and 146 (Belfast Banter 129, Faivoir 134, Arctic Fire 158).

County Hurdle Last 10 Winners

Year	Form	Horse	Rating
2025	2	Kargese	141
2024	P4	Absurde	138
2023	4P	Faivoir	134
2022	F1	State Man	141
2021	5312562	Belfast Banter	129
2020	51	Saint Roi	137
2019	5692	Ch'tibello	146
2018	1023	Mohaayed	139
2017	-	Arctic Fire	158
2016	12	Superb Story	138

Key Trials in the Last 10 Years

Surprisingly there are no major key trials trends for this race. The Betfair Hurdle at Newbury used to be an important one, but that's not the case anymore, with Faivoir entering but being pulled up before going on to win the County Hurdle in 2023.

Similarly, the Grade B Ladbrokes Hurdle at Leopardstown was a strong County Hurdle trial, having produced three winners from 2010-2013, but that has also fallen out of favour regarding winner trends.

In fact, no race has produced more than one County Hurdle winner in the last 10 years.

Trainer Trends

Nine of the last 10 winners were either trained by Willie Mullins or Dan Skelton, with Peter Fahey the only trainer to break their stranglehold on the race. Skelton has only saddled 16 runners but trained four of the last 10 winners, plus the runner-up in 2024.

Willie Mullins has been responsible for five of the last nine winners. He even had the first two home in 2020, and the first, third and fourth past the post in 2025.

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Jockey Trends

With trainer Dan Skelton doing so well, it's not surprising brother Harry Skelton has ridden two winners, with Bridget Andrews being on board for his other two wins.

Paul Townend, stable jockey for Willie Mullins, has ridden four of Mullins' last five winners of the race, including the last two with Kargese and Absurde, which indicates the yard know which horse is their best chance.

The now retired Barry Geraghty rode Saint Roi as retained rider for JP McManus for the only other Willie Mullins trained winner in the last 10 years. However, this was still the shortest-priced Mullins-trained horse in the betting.

How Did the Trends Do Last Year?

Kargese fit the trends pretty well last year. She was five years old, had won fewer than five races over hurdles prior to that victory last year and had an official rating of 141. The Willie Mullins horse was also carrying under 11st5lbs, had never won a race at Cheltenham before and was ridden by Paul Townend.

The only major trends that Kargese didn't follow is that she had won a Grade 1 hurdle race and was the favourite for the race.

2025 County Hurdle Result

Position	Name	Price	Trainer	Jockey
1st	Kargese	3/1F	Willie Mullins	Paul Townend
2nd	Nddawi	25/1	Gordon Elliott	Jack Kennedy
3rd	Absurde	5/1	Willie Mullins	Danny Mullins
4th	Ethical Diamond	16/1	Willie Mullins	Patrick Mullins

Who Fits The Trends Best In 2026?

There are a few to choose from here, which isn't a surprise given how wide open the race usually is. Willie Mullins-trained five-year-old Murcia fits most of the major trends with one hurdle win coming into this one which falls into the 2m-2m1f distance category. Much like Kargese last year, that win was in a Grade 1 race, and there is a real possibility that she starts as favourite and is ridden by Paul Townend.

Also worthy of consideration is Sinnatra, trained by Dan Skelton and a two-time winner over hurdles. At aged six, he is unexposed over hurdles and has never won at Cheltenham before with one of those wins coming over exactly 2m. He is, however, only rated 133 so might get taken off his feet if this is run at a fast pace.

Another worth a look is the Charles Byrnes-trained I Started A Joke. He's been given a rating of 138 by the handicapper, so is in the zone we are looking for, and has only won one hurdle race, which was over the right distance and wasn't a Grade 1. The only trend he falls down on is that he has run more than four times this season.

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About the Author

James Stoddart

More About James

Born in Liverpool, James is an LFC fan and season ticket holder. He's got an interest in playing and watching most sports including golf, darts, football and horse racing. As a keen punter, he's always on the lookout for value and loves spotting something at a big price that fits the trends. He applies this to online casino too, and is always looking to beat the house.