The Cheltenham Festival is the biggest week of jumps racing in the UK racing calendar, with the showpiece Cheltenham Gold Cup second only to the Grand National in terms of the biggest races in the UK. Hundreds of millions of pounds will be bet on 28 races over the four-day event, this year held between Tuesday 11^th March and Friday 14^th March.

While it may seem that putting a few quid on each favourite is a winning strategy, that hasn’t been the case at the Festival in the last 10 years.

Bookies.com analysed historical betting data to track the performance of favourites at the Cheltenham Festival over the past 10 years (2015-2024). Our study examines whether consistently backing the favourite in every race would lead to profit or loss.

The results show that since 2015, if bettors had placed a £10 bet on every favourite in every race, they would be down a total of £233.99 over that period.

Some Races Yield Profitable Favourites

Some Cheltenham Festival races have featured the favourite in the winner’s circle more often than others. Two of those races, the Arkle Novices’ Chase and the Champion Hurdle, have had the favourite win in eight of the last 10 years. 

Because favourites in those race could often be odds-on chances, including this year’s 8/13 shot Majborough in the Arkle, they haven't been the most profitable this decade despite the relative success of favourites. The Jack Richards Novices’ Handicap Chase (previously known as the Turners Novices’ Chase) leads the way in profit. There has been no odds-on favourite, with the market-leader winning five of the last 10, earning bettors who wagered £10 a £75 profit. However, punters should be cautious here as the conditions of the race have changed from a Graded contest to a Handicap for the 2025 Festival, something that traditionally makes a race more unpredictable.

The JCB Triumph Hurdle has earned £68.80 in profit while the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase and Champion Hurdle have earned favourite-backers £67.47 and £65.61, respectively. 

Favourite Winners Light On The Ground in Some Races

The favourite has not won once in the last decade in two of the 28 races, equalling a loss of £100 for each of them. The Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle and Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle have not crowned a single favourite over the last 10 years. The Pertemps Network Final, the National Hunt Novices’ Chase, the Grand Annual and the Fred Winter have all seen just one favourite winning over the last 10 years.

The County Handicap Hurdle has had two favourites triumph in the last 10 years, with the other eight winners all in double-figure prices. The Albert Bartlett, Martin Pipe and County Hurdle are all held on the final day of the festival. 

Tuesday the Best for Favourites

Blindly placing £10 on favourites won’t show a profit for any of the four Cheltenham Festival days over the last 10 years, but two days get closer than the others. 

Backing the favourites in all seven races on Tuesday has earned a profit in three of the last 10 Festivals. It is probably unsurprising this is the best day for favourite backers, as traditionally Willie Mullins has a strong hand on the opening day. It’s still not a profitable venture long-term though, as in total you’re still down £34.72.

Compared to Friday (-£112.21), it’s not too bad as punting seemingly gets more difficult on the final day. Wednesday (-£50.48) and Thursday (-£36.58) run it close, and it wouldn't take much this year to change the most profitable day for favourite backers.