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Premier League Relegation Run-In

Charlie Mullan for Bookies.com

Charlie Mullan  | 16 mins

Premier League Relegation Run-In

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The Premier League has reached the stage of the season, where fans are looking at the table wondering what they have to do to achieve their goals. Teams at the top of the table are battling it out to secure a place in next season's Champions League, Europa League and Europa Conference League, or in the case of leaders Arsenal and nearest rivals Manchester City, fight it out in the title race. Pep Guardiola's City side are favorites to land their fifth title in six seasons with many of the leading betting sites.

At the bottom of the table, the next six weeks or so, promise to be a nervous period of time as teams fight for every point in the hope they can stay in the Premier League and plan for next season. Right now, Southampton are favorites with many soccer betting apps to lose their Premier League status. 

Relegation from the richest league in the world can be difficult to recover from. We've analyzed each team's remaining fixtures to see which of the 10 teams in the bottom half of the table has the more favorable run-in based on their opponents' win percentages and their league positions. We've also included each team's points per game record from the reverse fixtures played earlier in the season.

EPL Relegation 2023
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Leicester
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Ipswich
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Everton
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Nottingham Forest
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Wolverhampton
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Teams Best Odds
Leicester
Nottingham Forest
Wolverhampton
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Chelsea Not Out Of the Woods Yet

Chelsea enter the latest round of Premier League fixtures sitting 11th. For a club that is used to challenging for trophies, a finish in the bottom half of the standings is a major setback. Following their exit from the Champions League to Real Madrid, the Stamford Bridge club have no involvement in other competitions, so they can concentrate on finishing as high up the league as they can.

Frank Lampard has been appointed as temporary manager until the end of the season, and he'll hope to impress owner Todd Boehly enough to secure the appointment on a permanent basis. Lampard is awaiting his first win as manager after losing four of the five games he's been in charge of since replacing Graham Potter. 

The bad news for the Blues is that their remaining fixtures are the toughest of all 10 teams in the bottom half. They have games against all the teams currently in the top four. Three of those four are on the road at leaders Arsenal, defending champions Manchester City and Manchester United, who are still involved in the FA Cup and Europa League. The seven teams Chelsea have left to play have won a combined 48.1 per cent of their games, which is the highest of any side in the lower half of the table. 

Hodgson's Mission Impossible Almost Complete

When Crystal Palace made the bold decision to sack Patrick Vieira and replace him with Roy Hodgson, many eyebrows were raised. Palace fans were glad when Hodgson left the club in the summer of 2021, so the return of the oldest person to ever manager in the Premier League was not greeted with universal approval.

However, three wins from three since his return to Selhurst Park has seen the Eagles soar away from the relegation zone. Without those nine points, Palace would be on 27 points and level with Everton and Nottingham Forest, who sit 17th and 18th, respectively, in the standings. A fourth successive win under Hodgson against Everton this weekend will not only boost Palace's survival hopes but also make things a lot more difficult for the Merseyside club. 

Selhurst Park is not an easy place to win, and Palace's final four home games are all against sides 14th or lower. If they can stay unbeaten in those games, they should be in a position to plan for Premier League football next season. Of the 10 teams in danger of the drop, Palace have the second most favorable run-in.

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Molineux Form Key To Wolves' Hopes

It's taken a while, but Wolves are finally seeing the benefits from naming Julen Lopetegui as permanent appointment to Bruno Lage following the short time Steve Davis was in charge of the Molineux side. Wolves are up to 15th thanks to their impressive home form. Of their nine league wins this season, seven have been celebrated at Molineux. 

Sadly for Wolves, only three of their remaining seven games are at home, against Crystal Palace, Aston Villa and Everton. After taking four points from the reverse fixtures against those three sides, Wolves will be confident of picking up the points necessary to stay in the league. 

Trips to Manchester United and leaders Arsenal are the toughest-looking fixtures left on their schedule, which is ranked the third most favorable of all the teams in the bottom half of the table.

Favorable Fixtures Can Help Save Cherries

Bournemouth deserve a lot of credit for sticking by Gary O'Neil when it seemed easier to make a second managerial change of the season. O'Neil was put in temporary charge of team affairs after Scott Parker paid the price for losing three games in a row in August. Bournemouth's fortunes improved initially under O'Neil, but the momentum gained from an unbeaten six-game run disappeared with four defeats in five games before the World Cup.

No wins in seven followed after the World Cup, but the club stuck with O'Neil, and the former Portsmouth and Middlesbrough midfielder is repaying their faith in him. In their first 22 games, Bournemouth managed just four wins and averaged 0.81 points per game.

In their last nine games, the Cherries have averaged 1.66 points per game after winning five. With the 'softest' run-in of the teams in the bottom half of the table, Bournemouth will be optimistic of securing their safety. However, in the reverse fixtures against their remaining opponents, Bournemouth have taken just three points, which was a 3-0 win at home to Everton.

Game In Hand Vital To Hammers

West Ham could do without having the distraction of still being involved in the Europa Conference League. The longer they stay in Europe, the more it impacts on their fight to stay in the Premier League. Players have expressed their discontent of having to play Thursday night, then Sunday, so an exit from European action might be a blessing.

The Hammers are the only side in the bottom half of the table to have eight matches left to play. The others have seven, but a game in hand is only an asset if it results in a win. There's an argument to say it's better to have the points on the board than a game in hand. Time will tell in the case of West Ham. 

The average league position (8.37) for their remaining opponents is ranked second after Chelsea, with games coming up against both Manchester clubs and Liverpool. Five of their eight games are away from the London Stadium which makes things that little bit more trickier. 

Leeds Lacking Cutting Edge In Survival Fight

It took Leeds United 16 seasons to win promotion back to the Premier League, but their stay in the top flight is in danger of coming to an end after just three seasons. Liverpool's 6-1 defeat at Elland Road was historic for all the wrong reasons. It was the first time in their history that Leeds had conceded five or more goals in back-to-back home games. 

This is not the time to be writing history of the negative kind. It was a gamble replacing Jesse Marsch with former Watford boss Javi Gracia, and it's fair to say the response hasn't provided the bounce it was meant to. If Leeds do get relegated, they only have themselves to blame for appointing a manager who has lost more games than he has won at his previous five clubs. 

A home game against Leicester on Tuesday, April 25 stands out as a game Leeds simply have to win. A failure to pick up three points could edge them closer to a return to the Championship. 

Deja Vu For Dyche At Goodison Park

Sean Dyche is no stranger to being involved in relegation battles. He had his fair share as Burnley manager, and he was sacked weeks before the Clarets were relegated 12 months ago. Under Vincent Kompany, Burnley will be back in the Premier League next season, but will it be at the expense of their former manager and his Everton team?

Everton's trip to Leicester on Saturday May 1 looms large on the calendar. The Toffees have invested heavily on building a new stadium, but the irony is that when it opens, the first league game played there could be a Championship fixture. 

The Toffees have taken just four points from the seven reverse fixtures against their remaining opponents, and if they fail to improve on that return, then their ever-present record in England's top division is in severe danger.

Forest's Gamble On Cooper At Risk

Nottingham Forest's owners have a big decision to make. Do they stick with manager Steve Cooper and risk relegation back to the Championship after just one season, knowing Cooper has a history of leading teams from the second tier to the Premier League? Or do they make the biggest decision of their season and let Cooper go in the hope a new manager can win the two or three games that could keep Forest up?

It's a difficult decision to make because there is so much at stake. Forest were last relegated in 1999, and it was 23 seasons before they returned. A quicker return this time is certainly not guaranteed. 

Forest are only in the bottom three because of their inferior goal difference compared to Everton's. One reason for Forest fans to be optimistic is their record already this season against their remaining opponents. They have taken 1.7 points per game from the seven meetings, losing only to Arsenal, which should provide some encouragement in the closing stages of the season.

Foxes Need To Capitalize On Soft Schedule

Leicester's fate could be sealed in two potentially season-defining games coming up within the next fortnight. After facing Wolves this weekend, the Foxes travel to Leeds at Elland Road before welcoming Everton to the King Power Stadium. Six points from those two games against their fellow strugglers, should ease the fear of relegation in the east Midlands. 

Dean Smith knew what he faced when he agreed to take over from Brendan Rodgers on April 10. It's going to take all of Smith's experience of managing in the Premier League with Aston Villa and Norwich to get them through, although both experiences did not end well for the boss.

Smith will look at the previous meetings with their remaining opponents and highlight to the players that the 1.7 points per game is the joint best of any side in the bottom half of the table. Smith needs to be able to learn from his mistakes from his previous spells in charge in this league.

Saints' Safety Looking Slimmer Every Week

Many of the leading soccer betting sites have Southampton as favorites to be relegated. They currently sit bottom, four points from safety. Two points from their last six league games is a cause for concern, and a trip to title-chasing Arsenal in their next game is as difficult as they come. Defeat at the Emirates could see the Saints lose more ground on those above them in the fight to stay up.

Wins against Chelsea and Leicester in three games seems a long time ago for Southampton fans, who have witnessed four defeats and two draws in their last six matches. It's difficult to argue a case for how Saints can survive. A trip to Nottingham Forest on May 8 is already a must-win game.

If Ruben Selles can pull off the great escape and keep Southampton up, then he deserves to be given the chance to start next season in charge of the team. If Saints get relegated, they could be looking for a fourth manager in six months. 

About the Author

Charlie Mullan for Bookies.com
Charlie Mullan
UK-based stats man Charlie Mullan brings previous expertise from the Press Association, DraftKings, Betfair, SportPesa, Hull Daily Mail and more where he has crunched soccer data for many seasons, creating content to support odds providers and market makers in the European betting industry. Charlie has more than a decade of experience using in-depth stats to make informed picks across the biggest games in the EPL and European soccer leagues.