WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Picks

It’s the end of an era this week in Texas’ capital city, as the final edition of the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play—and indeed, the final World Golf Championship event ever—unfolds in Austin. With the FedEx Cup playoffs now firmly in place as the PGA Tour’s title round, the entire WGC concept has run its course. For sports bettors, that means one last chance to wager on what has been an annual match play tournament held on U.S. soil.

Ten of the top 12 players in the world have entered this week’s event at Austin Country Club, with Justin Thomas and Justin Rose the lone two eligible players skipping the tournament. Defending champion and world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is the favorite on golf betting sites at +750 (15/2), followed by 2015 winner Rory McIlroy and world No. 2 Jon Rahm at +1200 (12/1), Patrick Cantlay at +1800 (18/1) and Tony Finau at +2000 (20/1).

The event starts Wednesday with three days of round-robin competition, with the 64 players seeded into four-man groups. Players get one point for a match victory and a half-point for a tie, and the winner of each group advances to the 16-man knockout stage. Winning the title requires surviving two 18-hole matches on both Saturday and Sunday. And it can go even longer than that—Mike Weir and Scott Verplank both needed 26 holes to win their final matches in 2003 and 2006, respectively.

WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Odds

WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Course Overview

Home to the WGC-Match Play since 2016, Austin Country Club plays for the pros as a par-71, 7,108-yard layout. Designed by Pete Dye and opened in 1984, the private course rambles through Texas hill country before winding along the shore of Lake Austin, with the graceful span of the Pennybacker Bridge serving as a dramatic backdrop. Although water comes into play on only five holes, the wind will likely be an ever-present factor.

There are scoring chances aplenty on holes like the par-5, 12th, which features a fairway that slopes downhill and can produce drives of 400 yards, and the par-4 13th, where many players can drive the green. But the toughest hole on the course is often its longest par 4, the 14th, a 462-yard beast with a ribbon-thin fairway and water all down the left side. And should matches make it to the short par-3 17th, players will face an uphill tee shot from a protected tee box offering little to no indication of the swirling winds on the green above.

Although Austin would appear tailor-made for the big hitters, the one-on-one nature of match play means everything hinges on the individual strengths of the players involved. Dustin Johnson and Bubba Watson have won this event; but so have Kevin Kisner and Matt Kuchar. Much like the NCAA basketball tournament, the WGC-Match Play often comes down to individual matchups, and which player is physically and mentally better on a given day.

WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Previous Winners

2022: Scottie Scheffler

2021: Billy Horschel

2019: Kevin Kisner

2018: Bubba Watson

2017: Dustin Johnson

2016: Jason Day

2015: Rory McIlroy

2014: Jason Day

2013: Matt Kuchar

2012: Hunter Mahan

WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Betting Angles

While world No. 1 Scheffler may be defending champion and favorite on golf betting apps, some of the best performers in the Match Play are tour grinders who know how to churn out pars and let opponents make mistakes. For instance take Kuchar, a +9000 (90/1) wager on betting sites this week, who has an incredible track record in this event: eight top 10s in 11 starts, including a victory in 2013, a runner-up result in 2019 and a third-place finish last year. Same with +11000 (110/1) bet Kisner, who was second in 2018, won in 2019, and was second again last season.

The big boys meanwhile have to get out of their own groups to qualify for the 16-man knockout round. Scheffler is up against world No. 17 Tom Kim, Alex Noren and Davis Riley. Rahm faces 2021 winner and world No. 22 Billy Horschel, as well as the dangerous Keith Mitchell and a revived Rickie Fowler. McIlroy is grouped with world No. 20 Keegan Bradley, Denny McCarthy and Scott Stallings. What appears the most balanced group includes +2200 (22/1) bet Viktor Hovland, Honda Classic winner Chris Kirk, Si Woo Kim and Kuchar, while Collin Morikawa is grouped with resurgent two-time winner Jason Day. 

Cantlay has never made the knockout round in four Match Play appearances, while McIlroy has made it just once in his last four starts. Rahm has made it two straight years, and was runner-up in 2017. But everyone’s clearly chasing Scheffler, who owns a second and a first in two Match Play appearances, has a 10-2-2 match record at the event, and was bet down from +1100 to +750 almost immediately after odds first appeared on USA sports betting sites. And yet, he had to survive Horschel 1 up in the Round of 16 last year. It’s still match play, after all.

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WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Predictions

Tyrrell Hatton to Win, +2800 (28/1)

A bit of a big swing here, though it’s tough to overlook that value on one of the hottest players in the game right now. Hatton closed with three rounds in the 60s to claim T6 at Phoenix, finished T4 at Bay Hill, and finished with a 65 to clinch runner-up at The Players. The Englishman is also in a very winnable group also featuring Russell Henley, Lucas Herbert and Ben Griffin. Hatton has also made the knockout round three times in his last four Match Play appearances, finishing T9 in each case.

Scottie Scheffler Top 4, +225 (9/4)

We have to get the world No. 1 in there somewhere, and taking him to make the semifinals allows us to chase a little more value with our winner. The guy’s just been ridiculously good as of late, with nine consecutive finishes of T12 or better dating back to last October. He’s won two of his past four starts, and owns a spectacular match play record in Austin. But still, Scheffler can’t win every week. Can he?

Jordan Spieth Top 4, +650 (13/2)

Spieth has been in a position to win three times this year, and in every instance, he’s found final-round trouble that has denied him the title. Perhaps the change in format will be good for the native Texan, who will certainly be a crowd favorite in Austin. Spieth has to get past Shane Lowry to advance beyond the group stage and could face Max Homa in the Round of 16, but his repeated close calls shouldn’t overshadow the fact that he’s played consistently well this season.

How to Watch The WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play

Wednesday through Friday, Golf Channel from 2-8 p.m. EDT; Saturday, Golf Channel from 10 a.m.-12 p.m. and NBC from 12-6 p.m.; Sunday, Golf Channel from 10 a.m.-2 p.m. and NBC from 3-7 p.m..