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Florida State Next Conference Odds: 57% Chance 'Noles Wind Up in Big Ten

Dan Kilbridge for Bookies.com

Dan Kilbridge  | 4 mins

Florida State Next Conference Odds: 57% Chance 'Noles Wind Up in Big Ten

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It doesn’t take much to get the college football world scrambling these days. 

A tweet here, an anonymous report there. 

Such is the case once again with conference realignment. Every move or potential pivot creates a chain reaction, some of it panicked, with athletic departments and conference leaders trying to make sure they’re not left behind in the modern game. 

The Pac-12 has been at the forefront of the current discussion, with USC and UCLA leaving for the Big Ten next year and more rumored to potentially follow. The Big Ten has reportedly already vetted Oregon and Washington as potential additions and will meet to discuss any further moves this week. Colorado is also leaving the Pac-12 to re-join the Big 12. 

While the future of the entire Pac-12 is now officially in danger, the ACC could be next – Florida State board of regents chairman Peter Collins said Wednesday the ACC doesn’t generate enough revenue and the Seminoles plan to leave as a result. The school would need to pay $120 million to get out of the ACC, and it would need to declare its intent to do so by Aug. 15 in order to join a new conference in 2024. 

This doesn’t appear to be a bluff, as reports indicate FSU is pulling out all the stops to raise capital. It seems all but a certainty the Seminoles will be looking for a new conference in the coming years. With that in mind, Bookies.com college football expert Dan Kilbridge gives his college football odds on Florida State's next conference.

Florida State Next Conference Odds

ConferenceOddsImplied Probability
Big Ten-13056.5%
SEC+11047.6%
Other/Stay in ACC+10009.1%

Odds are projected and do not reflect any odds that may be available at legal betting apps. They will not add up to 100% most times because they are designed to simulate a sportsbook line.

What League Will FSU Play in When Realignment Dust Settles?

We have the Big Ten as a slight favorite over the SEC, the only two logical options given that money is the biggest factor for the Seminoles. Florida State moving to the Big Ten would have been a laughable proposition just a few years ago, but things are moving quickly. 

For starters, the Big Ten already abandoned any sense of any geographical affiliation. It began with the addition of Rutgers and Maryland and continued with the poaching of top Pac-12 teams, with the conference now stretching from Los Angeles to Newark. 

This is officially an arm’s race and the Big Ten wants to position itself as strongly as possible. If all this realignment eventually leads to two super conferences, as many respected pundits have suggested, it’ll be the SEC vs. the Big Ten. Adding Florida State would get the Big Ten into southern territory and allow them to stand up to a potential 20 or 25-team SEC.


RELATED: Next Big Ten Expansion Team Odds: Ducks Migrating East?


It also makes sense from an academic standpoint, a principle the Big Ten is still trying to uphold, with the Seminoles standing up in the rankings. And it would give the conference one of the strongest brands in college football over the past 30 years. 

The question is whether the conference would have room, should they successfully court additional Pac-12 teams like Oregon and Washington. That could depend on whether Arizona decides to leave for the Big 12, which would create a further dominate effect and likely spell the end of the Pac-12 as we know it. 

While the Big Ten has been highly successful in luring teams away from the Pac-12, the SEC has done the same in the Big 12. Texas and Oklahoma are set to join the conference in 2024, and they could continue to poach from a pool of new Big 12 additions in UCF, BYU, Cincinnati and Houston. 

This is all, of course, contingent on the Seminoles actually leaving the ACC and gaining approval from one of the two major conferences. This is all reactionary and potential scenarios are changing by the day based on the way the rest of the dominoes fall. 

What’s clear is that college football’s rich are getting richer, and the Seminoles don’t want to get left behind. 

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About the Author

Dan Kilbridge for Bookies.com
Dan Kilbridge
Handicapper Dan Kilbridge writes about college football, MLB and other sports for Bookies.com after spending three years covering Tiger Woods’ comeback and the PGA for Golfweek.