Georgia Governor Odds: Brian Kemp Still Well Clear of Stacey Abrams
Isla Knightley | 3 mins
Incumbent Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp remains the big favorite to win a second term in office as we look at the latest politics odds trading with Ladbrokes.
The popular UK bookmaker tips Kemp as the -500 odds-on favorite to win the Georgia Governor Elections – a price highpoint he’s enjoyed pretty much since dispatching the challenge from rival Republican Senator David Purdue and securing the GOP’s nomination.
At the same time, this sportsbook prices Democrat hopeful Stacey Abrams as a distant +350 bet to oust Kemp from the governor’s mansion – a price that she’s held ever since she ran unopposed and won her party’s nod in May.
Betting on politics is not legal in the United States, but it is across the Atlantic where politics odds, also known as “specials,” are regularly offered. UK bookmaker Ladbrokes has the most up-to-date markets and the latest odds available covering many key races during this midterm election year, including the gubernatorial races in Georgia, New York and Texas.
2022 Georgia Governor Odds
|Brian Kemp (R)||-500|
|Stacey Abrams (D)||+350|
Odds as of Aug. 23, 2022
Abrams' Odds As Democratic Candidate
Abrams, the former minority leader of the House of Representatives, avoided fully conceding defeat to Kemp in 2018 on the premise that unfair election practices sidelined low-income and predominantly black voters from participating.
In the aftermath of that defeat, Abrams campaigned staunchly to register new Democratic voters in Georgia. That effort paid dividends according to the punditocracy in 2020, with many crediting (in part) her grassroots campaign for stealing the state’s two Senate seats and swinging the Peach State toward Joe Biden in the January 2021 runoffs.
That was then, when the battleground clearly shifted toward the Democrats in Georgia as it rode the national tailwind that carried Biden into the White House during the 2020 US Elections. But that tailwind advantage has dissipated today. This is evident on the political odds board, where Abrams has struggled to make any headway in the Georgia Governor Elections market ever since she was confirmed as the Democratic nominee.
Add to that a national climate that appears to be less favorable for Democrats ahead of the 2022 national cycle compared to 2018, and her chances of beating Kemp seem even smaller than is being indicated at the sportsbook betting exchange.
Kemp's Odds As Republican Candidate
On the face of it, the Georgia gubernatorial race is a high-profile rematch of the Kemp-Stacey bout from 2018 that was narrowly decided in favor of the former secretary of state Kemp. Then, Kemp won the highly watched race with approximately 50.2% of the vote compared to 48.8% won by Abrams.
Today, it’s Kemp’s race to lose according to the betting sites and their corresponding betting apps. Interestingly with the 2022 Midterm Elections fast approaching, pollsters are painting a much closer race.
A recent Quinnipiac University poll finds Kemp and Abrams tied with both candidates pulling 48% of the vote. The poll found Kemp leads with white voters predominantly, while Abrams has majority support among black voters.
Polling isn’t absolute and it’ll vary from institution to institution. So, these numbers need to be taken with a massive grain of salt. For instance, a Fox News poll from July 22 to 26 showed Kemp had a three-point lead over Abrams, whereas the Real Clear Politics polling average showed Kemp with a 4.2-point advantage over Abrams.
That said, given the contrast between the polls and betting markets, it begs the question whether the Georgia Governor race really is a foregone conclusion as the odds would have it.