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Aaron Rodgers Next Snap Odds: When Will Rodgers Come Back?

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 5 mins

Aaron Rodgers Next Snap Odds: When Will Rodgers Come Back?

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On the first drive of the first game in the green-and-white of the New York Jets Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles tendon. He was deemed out for the season, a massive blow to a franchise that had gone all-in with the idea that No. 12 could lead them to a new era of winning. 

Rodgers didn’t give up on 2023, and now he’s put a timeline on his improbable comeback. “It’ll be a few fortnights,” Rodgers said on his weekly appearance on “The Pat McAfee Show.”

It still seemed realistic at the time. But on Wednesday, the Jets opened the 21-day practice window, the first massive step in an actual return to the field. 

Is that realistic? Will we see Rodgers return to action in 2023? Bookies.com veteran oddsmaker Adam Thompson has the updated NFL odds as to when Rodgers next stands under center for the Jets. 

Aaron Rodgers Next Snap Odds

TeamOddsImplied Probability
Week 16 vs. Washington (Dec. 24)+20033.3%
Week 1, 2024+27526.7%
Week 17 at Cleveland (Dec. 28)+45018.2%
Week 18 at New England (Jan. 7)+75011.8%
Week 1, Playoffs (Jan. 13-14)+10009.1%
Week 15 at Miami (Dev. 17)+12007.7%
Another Date/Retire+15006.3%

These odds are for entertainment purposes only and do not reflect odds that may be available on legal betting apps.

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Typically, the prognosis for a healed torn Achilles tendon is 4-6 months, and that’s for regular people, not 40-year-olds trying to return to the NFL. Most athletes require at least nine months. 

To the surprise of few who have followed Rodgers’ life the last few years, the QB eschewed “mainstream” medicine and went an alternative route. He instead sought out Neal ElAttrache, based out of L.A., and a team physician for the Rams and Dodgers. 

He’s performed surgery for Kobe Bryant and Tom Brady, among others. His techniques aren’t “the norm” yet, but past successes 

He fixes what others say is unfixable,” said Arnold Schwarzenegger, another one of his happy clients. 

Once it was believed he could return to action this year, the pipe dream was he could play if New York qualified for the postseason. The Jets are 4-7 with six games remaining, four games behind the Dolphins atop the AFC East, and two games out of the final AFC Wild Card spot. 

Originally, Rodgers' "few fortnites" comment made it most likely his return would come either Week 15 (Dec. 17) against the Dolphins, or (Week 16), Dec. 24 against the Commanders. 

Now the Jets have opened the practice window. If they are to activate Rodgers from injured reserve, it must be within the next three weeks. They could open it early, having him ready for Week 15 vs. Miami, but it more likely means he'll be activated prior to Week 16, Christmas Eve against Washington. 


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But when will he actually return? It’s easy to see why Week 16 is the goal date. The dramatics of returning on Christmas Eve, in the final regular season home game, on the same turf that took him out – that stuff doesn’t write itself, and Rodgers has been known to be drawn to the dramatic. 

It’s possible, as many athletes will do, to give a self-prognosis that doesn’t match with what doctors and trainers believe. If it’s close but not quite close enough, the Jets do play four days later, on a Thursday night in Week 17 against the Browns. 

The play of the Jets will likely factor into the decision-making. They've lost three in a row heading into Week 13 and changed QBs. , perhaps they don’t need Rodgers until the playoffs. Or perhaps they’re put into a must-win situation in the Week 18 finale at the rival Patriots. The Jets could also use that game for a tune-up for the playoffs if they’re already qualified. 

That’s glass-is-half-full talk. There’s the other side, too. The Jets are in a tailspin, and replacing Zach Wilson for Tim Boyle didn't alter the course. If the defense can’t sustain its top-tier play for the rest of the way, it’s very possible the Jets won’t be playing for anything by Week 16. 

At that point, there’s no reason to risk aggravation, and Week 1 of 2024 ultimately becomes the return date, even if he is cleared before then. We’ll see if Gang Green can get through two games against the Dolphins and matchups with the Bills, resurgent Texans, and Falcons to have a reason for Rodgers to return for a stretch run. 

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.