By Adam Walford | | 33 mins
2023 AFC & NFC Championship Odds Tracker
With half as many teams to choose from compared to Super Bowl betting odds, odds to win the AFC Championship and NFC Championship have grown in handle and number of bets over the years. Winning that final game is tough, so bettors have added conference title futures to their overall NFL betting strategy.
Bookies.com will track AFC and NFC odds and continue to do so through the 2022-23 NFL regular season and into the playoffs.
AFC Championship Odds
|Team||Current Odds||Preseason Odds|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+600|
|Los Angeles Chargers||+800|
|New York Jets||+8000|
|New England Patriots||+2500|
|Las Vegas Raiders||+200|
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AFC Championship Odds Movements
- Nov. 29: Despite a win, the Bills drop to No. 2 for the first time this season with the Chiefs moving into favorites for the AFC title. The Dolphins destroyed the terrible Texans to move up to third, while a loss for the Ravens vs. the Jaguars drops Baltimore to No. 4. The AFC North is back in the balance with the Bengals keeping up the pressure after a win in Tennessee.
- Nov. 22: The Bills got back in the win column in Week 11, beating the Browns in Detroit. Despite still trailing in division, they sit atop the betting standings in the AFC, but another Chiefs win keeps the pressure on for the #1 seed. The Ravens and Bengals both won to keep their challenges alive while the Jets losing helped the Dolphins in the AFC East. The Chargers' odds took a big hit after their loss to Kansas City. The AFC West now looks out of reach for LA.
- Nov. 15: It’s two losses in a row for the Bills but they keep their spot as favorites for the AFC, the Chiefs go top of the seeding and close the gap in the betting. The Dolphins are the big movers after another dominant offensive performance, they’re now 7-0 when Tua Tagovailoa plays the full game. The Titans are arguably the value as they are practically guaranteed a home playoff game to start the postseason. Another Broncos loss has them the largest drifter at +10000 from +900 at the start of the year.
- November 7: A shock loss for the Bills and news of Josh Allen possibly missing some time drops their odds slightly but they remain favorites ahead of the Chiefs who won again and shorten into the lowest they’ve been all year. The Ravens had a comfortable win while the Dolphins are now level with the Bills in the AFC East and shorten in the odds as a result of that. The Jets beat the Bills but still aren’t getting much respect in terms of this market. The big losers of the week were the Colts who fired Frank Reich this week and look to be in the tank for a high pick next year.
- Nov. 1: Another win for the Bills (+115) takes them a step closer to even money in the AFC. The Chiefs (+320) remain second but the Ravens (+800) are closing after a win for them and a loss for the Bengals (+1300), who drift out after going down to the Browns on Monday Night Football. The Dolphins (+1700) moved to 5-0 when Tua plays the full game after defeating the Lions, and another Titans (+2200) win leaves them way ahead in the South. The Raiders (+5000) are the big losers of the week after getting shut out by the Saints.
- Oct. 24: The Bills come off their bye at a shorter price than they've been all season (+125), while the Chiefs (+350) solidified their spot in 2nd place after a win against the 49ers. The AFC North seems to be between the Ravens (+900) and Bengals (+1100) who sit behind the top two. The Titans (+2500) are big favorites for the South yet sit longer than they were to open the season, highlighting the lack of quality in that division.
- Oct. 19: After beating the Chiefs, the Bills are now into +140 at the top of the betting. The Chiefs remain second. The Chargers and Ravens retain their spots in the top 4 despite the Ravens losing, and the Bengals' win keeps them in contention to win the AFC North. The Colts and Titans won to keep it interesting in the AFC South, although both are longer odds than they were before the season started
- Oct. 11: No change at the top of the market as the top 4 teams all won in Week 5, the Ravens beating their closest rivals Cincinnati in the AFC North, which knocked the Bengals down the board. The Titans went top of the AFC South and have shortened to +2000 from last week as a result. The Bills and Chiefs play each other in Week 6, with the winner becoming the sure-fire favorite for the conference title.
- Oct. 4: The Bills came back from 3-20 to defeat the Ravens in Baltimore and cement their place as the favorite in the AFC. Bettors were impressed with the Ravens, too, as their odds were cut despite the loss. The Chiefs put up 41 points on the Buccaneers to get to the shortest odds they’ve been all year (+330) as second favorites, while the Chargers and Bengals both shortened after wins.
- Sept. 29: The Dolphins are the only 3-0 team remaining in the conference after they beat the Bills. As such, they are the biggest movers in the AFC, now in to fourth favorite, while the Bills remain at the top after dominating the stats in that loss. The Chargers, decimated by injuries and humiliated by the Jags, have dropped from +800 to +1100.
- Sept. 20: Another dominant performance from the Bills solidified their spot at No. 1 while the Chiefs' win over the Chargers shortened their odds and lengthened the Chargers. The Dolphins were the big mover toward the top of the odds table after their comeback against the Ravens, while the Browns and Colts are impressing no-one.
- Sept. 13: Wins for the Bills, Chiefs and Chargers in Week 1 shorten their odds further but the Dolphins were cut the most after beating the Patriots. The Titans saw the biggest drop after their loss to the Giants.
- Sept. 5: The offseason hype continues to build on the Chargers as they shorten in price to +750, while in the AFC North the Bengals and Ravens both shorten to +900 due to the Deshaun Watson suspension (11 games).
The Bills are the favorites at betting sites to win both the AFC and the Super Bowl.
The Bills and Chiefs met in Week 6 for a rematch of their historic playoff game from last January. And the AFC West is loaded.
The Broncos brought in Russell Wilson at QB and QB whisperer Nathaniel Hackett as their new head coach. They are our pick to win it despite their Week 1 blip.
The Raiders are a long-shot value play, with new head coach Josh McDaniels and the addition of WR Davante Adams. Elsewhere, the defending AFC champion Bengals are strong value pick. Joe Burrow has help on his offensive line and won’t absorb the beating he took last season.
AFC Conference Trends
Home Advantage Matters: In both the AFC and NFC championship games, home-field advantage has proven advantageous. But it’s been really true on this side of the standings. Home teams have won seven of the last nine AFC title games, and 13 of the last 16.
Offense Wins Championships: The winning team in the AFC Championship has scored at least 35 points in five of the last eight title games. Of course, the winning team in all five instances had either Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes II running the show.
NFC Championship Odds
|Team||Current Odds||Preseason Odds|
|San Francisco 49ers||+750|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+350|
|New York Giants||+6000|
|Green Bay Packers||+500|
|New Orleans Saints||+2500|
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NFC Championship Odds Movements
- Nov. 29: The tenth win of the season for the Eagles keeps them at the top of the standings but their odds have drifted as money comes in for the 49ers and the Cowboys, who lead the chasing pack after notching up wins once again. The Vikings are still only one game behind the Eagles at 4th favorites. It’s a big gap beyond the top 5 teams, with the Commanders eyeing a wild card spot after another win (this time over the Falcons).
- Nov. 22: The Eagles bounced back with a win over the Colts and a Vikings loss helps Philly move toward the NFC No. 1 seed. A comfortable Cowboys win moves them into third behind the resurgent 49ers, who moved to the top of the NFC West after beating Arizona in Mexico City. The NFC South is going through Tampa once more and the home wild card game makes them the last of the short odds in this market. The Seahawks at +2200 lead the chasing pack.
- Nov. 15: The Eagles’ first loss weakens their hold atop the betting down to +240 from +170 a week ago while another win for the 49ers with Christian McCaffrey has the oddsmakers looking towards them in this market. The Vikings beat the AFC favorites and are cut to 3rd in the betting now, they face 4th placed Dallas this week in what could be a pivotal week in the betting. The Buccaneers are hanging around after a win in Germany and will likely have a home playoff game as NFC South winners. The Rams are surely out of the running now, they sit at +4000.
- November 7: It’s now 8-0 for the Eagles who come in slightly to +170 for the conference now and an easy remaining schedule should keep them there. The 49ers come off their bye week as second favorites, they and the Cowboys are both shorter after their rest while the Vikings went to 7-1 but now drop to 4th in the betting. It looks like it’s between those 4 teams for the conference with the Seahawks still disrespected in the market despite another impressive win. The biggest loser of the week was the Rams who drop to +2800 and may not even make the playoffs this season.
- Nov. 1: The Eagles (+175) remain unbeaten after an easy win against the Steelers. They are rightly clear as favorites in the NFC. The 49ers' (+500) acquisition of Christian McCaffrey is huge and their win against the Rams drops them into 2nd favorite. The Vikings (+600) beat the Cardinals to move to 6-1, while the Cowboys (+600) round out the top 4 in the betting. The Buccaneers, Rams and Packers all drifted after losses and need a major turnaround in fortunes. The Seahawks are of note at +2500, sitting top of the NFC West, but their schedule gets tougher as they progress through the season.
- Oct. 25: Losses for the Buccaneers and Packers dropped them significantly in the betting, with the Bucs down to 4th (+700) and the Packers now at +1200, the longest they’ve been all season. The Eagles (+210) are shorter than ever atop the odds, while the Vikings (+600) and 49ers (+600) have both improved. The Cowboys (+700) and Giants (+2000) also both recorded wins in Week 7. The NFC East is strong.
- Oct. 19: The Eagles go into their bye at 6-0 after a win against the Cowboys makes them the shortest price they’ve been all season. The Bucs and Packers both lost so the Vikings are the big gainers of the week, now into +650 as they take control of the North. The Giants aren’t getting any respect despite their 5-1 record at +2500, while the NFC West is wide open with three teams at 3-3. The bookies still fancy the 49ers to win it despite facing the Chiefs this weekend before the Rams in Week 8.
- Oct. 11: The Eagles are the only unbeaten team left in the league and their win against the Cardinals brought them to +250 in this market. They face the Cowboys next, followed by their bye week. The 49ers shortened thanks to their win over the Panthers, while the Rams lost to the Cowboys, who continue to win with Cooper Rush at QB. In the NFC North, the Vikings' win and Packers' loss keeps Minnesota in the hunt.
- Oct. 4: The Eagles' rise to the top of the odds is complete as they now sit as sole favorites at +300 after coming from behind to beat the Jaguars. Despite their win, the Packers drifted slightly to +400 after struggling against the Patriots, while another 49ers win over the Rams cut San Fran's odds to +800. Another Cooper Rush win for the Cowboys has them at +1200 after they were +2200 just a few weeks ago.
- Sept. 29: The Eagles continue to fly and are now joint-favorites for the NFC after smashing Washington. The NFC North looks tough with the Vikings and Packers in the top 5 in the betting, although Minnesota has drifted a little in price after a close win against Detroit. The Cowboys won again with Cooper Rush to keep their playoff hopes alive and their price for the conference was cut once more. The biggest drifters were the Commanders, who were utterly ineffective against the Eagles.
- Sept. 20: The Eagles are now into second-favorite status behind the Buccaneers after their win on Monday night vs. the Vikings, while the Lions had the biggest shift in odds after their win over the Commanders. They are still a huge price to win the conference (+5000), the same odds as the Commanders, who drifted from +3500 last week.
- Sept. 13: The Eagles are now joint-third favorites after they took care of the Lions in Detroit. Dak Prescott’s injury for the Cowboys makes Philly's run to the NFC East title significantly easier, while also causing Dallas to plummet out of contention. The Vikings' convincing win against Green Bay has dropped them significantly in the betting and the two big gainers face each other this week on Monday night football (Vikings vs. Eagles).
- Sept. 5: The Eagles are the big movers as they’re in to +1100 as their hype builds. In their division, the Cowboys have got weaker due to offensive line injuries - namely Tyron Smith. A few longer shots have also taken money - Hard Knocks has seemingly bumped up the Lions to +6000.
The Los Angeles Rams loaded up to win Super Bowl 56 and it paid off. Adding Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr. paid monster dividends during the postseason. But Miller jumped to the Buffalo Bills and OBJ remains unsigned as an injured free agent.
Still, the Rams bring back QB Matthew Stafford and WR Cooper Kupp, who not only led the NFL in yards receiving, receptions and TD catches, but earned Super Bowl MVP honors.
If the Rams hope to repeat, they will have to get past Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. Both future Hall of Fame QBs are back with their teams this season. Brady retired for 40 days before ending his “vacation” and opting to return to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Brady’s decision propelled the Bucs to become NFL odds favorites to win the NFC. The Packers and Rodgers are the second choice at sportsbooks and on betting apps.
Tampa Bay remains the pick here, but not at this price. The Eagles are the best value play here by far.
NFC Conference Trends
All About O: Similar to the AFC, it takes a lot of points to win conference championships, more than it takes defensive stops. Five of the last seven NFC winners scored 31-plus points to clinch their Super Bowl trip, and six scored least 26. But the Rams used a stout defense to stop the 49ers in the 2022 NFC championship game.
New Faces: For the first time since January of 2011, NFL Championship Weekend did not feature either Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers this past season.