Best Bets & Player Props For NFL Week 16 Saturday Games

By Adam Thompson

Apr 20th, 2026 4:25 PM EDT

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New quarterbacks will be the theme for a lot of teams as the final three weeks of the 2022 NFL season unfolds. That’s often the case for building teams with dashed postseason hopes, but injuries are causing adjustments for contenders, too. 

Titans QB Ryan Tannehill was lost for the season (ankle) and Eagles QB Jalen Hurts (shoulder) won’t play on Saturday in a massive showdown with the rival Cowboys. 

Atlanta’s Marcus Mariota and San Francisco’s Jimmy Garoppolo were both recently lost for the year, too. Their teams and Tannehill’s Titans are now relying on rookies to get them into the postseason and beyond. 

Related: Best Anytime TD Scorer Prop Bet for Saturday Week 16

So far this season, rookie QBs have more than held their own. The first-year signal-callers are an all-right 9-7 straight-up, and an even-better 11-5 against the spread (68.8%). That’s good news to those to plan to back Malik Willis, Desmond Ridder, Brock Purdy, Trace McSorley or Kenny Pickett this weekend. 

Bookies.com NFL handicapper Adam Thompson has hit on over 62% of his NFL best bets in each of the last three years, and cashed on 67% the past six weeks this season. Here are his top three game picks and player props for Saturday’s Christmas Eve action. 

Titans -3 over Texans

Tennessee has dropped four in a row and now Tannehill is out for the year. Malik Willis will get the start, which pushed this line from -5 to -3. Willis had the kid gloves on for his first start, a 17-10 win over these same Texans in Houston in which Tennessee rushed for 314 yards and the defense held Houston to 161 total yards. 

Tennessee is fighting for a postseason berth, Houston would be better served to lose and secure that No. 1 overall pick. Cold weather and Derrick Henry should splatter Houston’s hopes early. 

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Vikings -3 over Giants

There is reason for concern in Minnesota, a team with an 11-3 record but a defense that ranks dead-last in yards allowed. But the Vikings are at home, where they’re allowing 30 fewer yards and gaining 25 additional per game. 

New York has been a road beast but it feels like a paper tiger; the Giants have been outgained in their last four on the road and rank bottom 10 both offensively and defensively despite an 8-5-1 record. Minnesota is 7-1 at home, with every win by three-plus and averaged out to 7.1 ppg. 

Patriots +3.5 over Bengals

This feels like too many points to be giving a team that is in must-win mode, coached by a legend, with a run game and defense that is perfectly suited for the windy, cold conditions expected for Saturday. The Bengals have been way worse on the road compared to home, and the big winds expected could ground Joe Burrow and his weapons. (Locked in at +3.5)

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NFL Christmas Eve Player Props Picks

Brock Purdy, Under 218.5 Pass Yards

Odds: -115 at DraftKings

Purdy has been a revelation at QB for the Niners, going 3-0 with wins over the Dolphins, Buccaneers and Seahawks. But this number seems surprising. He’s thrown for 210, 185 and 217 yards in those games, Deebo Samuel is out and the Commanders rank sixth in pass D. 

Only one QB since Week 3 has passed for over 217 yards against them. Expect a ground attack from SF and another mid-level pass total for Purdy. 

Travis Kelce, Over 75.5 Receiving Yards

Odds: -115 at Caesars

The Seahawks rank a respectable 11th in receptions allowed to tight ends. But they rank 30th in yards allowed, meaning TEs who can make big plays are more likely to find opportunities vs. Seattle. That’s good news for the Chiefs. Kelce has 10 catches for 105 yards last Sunday and has eight games of over 75 yards this season. He leads all NFL tight ends in targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns. 

Darius Slayton, Over 48.5 Receiving Yards

Odds: -115 at BetMGM

We’re taking the Vikings to cover, but are aware of their defensive limitations. Only the Lions have allowed more yards to WRs than Minnesota, and Slayton had eclipsed 57 yards in six straight starts before a few down games. Minnesota will focus on Saquon Barkley, so on the indoor turf, expect Slayton to get back to his usual 60-90 range.

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About the Author

Adam Thompson

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Long established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine & CBSSports.com. He specializes in the NFL and MLB, where he's hit on well over 60% of his picks the past five years. Adam's NBA and horse racing picks have also produced consistent, major winners over the years.

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