Best NFL DFS Week 4 Plays & Value Picks for Sunday
Jim Coventry | 9 mins
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Defense has had an advantage over many of the offenses through the first two weeks of the year. However, we started to see signs in Week 3 that the offenses might be beginning to catch up. This week, we’ll try to ride the wave that’s beginning for our daily fantasy picks.
NFL DFS Week 4 Main Slate, Ranked by Over/Under
- Bills vs Ravens - 51
- Seahawks vs Lions - 47.5
- Browns vs Falcons - 47.5
- Jaguars vs Eagles - 45.5
- Chiefs vs Buccaneers - 45.5
- Chargers vs Texans - 45
- Broncos vs Raiders - 45
- Cardinals vs Panthers - 43.5
- Titans vs Colts - 43
- Commanders vs Cowboys - 41.5
- Jets vs Steelers - 41.5
- Vikings vs Saints - 41
- Patriots vs Packers - 40
- Bears vs Giants - 39.5
RELATED: NFL Week 4 Picks, Best Bets and Predictions
Highest Implied Team Totals
- Bills - 28
- Eagles - 27
- Lions, Browns - 26
- Chargers, Ravens, Packers - 25
- Raiders, Falcons - 24
- Vikings, Chiefs, Colts, Panthers, Cowboys, Steelers - 23
- Broncos, Bucs, Seahawks, Giants - 22
- Cardinals - 21
- Saints, Titans, Commanders, Jags, Jets - 20
- Texans - 19
- Bears - 18
- Patriots - 16
NFL DFS Week 4 Quarterbacks for FanDuel & DraftKings
Lamar Jackson - Ravens vs. Bills - FD $8,800 DK $8,300
Jackson is playing at the level he showed in his 2019 MVP season. He’s gone over 100 rushing yards while scoring on the ground in his last two games. Despite averaging 29 pass attempts per game, he’s thrown at least three TD passes in each game.
Sure, the Bills have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs, but they’re banged up on defense and coming off a Week 3 game in which many players dealt with dehydration in the Florida heat. Jackson may be immune to matchups at this point. In an expected shootout, Jackson could have his third straight game with at least 40 fantasy points.
Jalen Hurts - Eagles vs. Jaguars - FD $8,600 DK $8,200
Hurts is looking unstoppable. He’s averaging 56 yards and a TD on the ground. He’s thrown for over 330 yards in his last two games. His trio of receiving weapons are all playing at an elite level. And he also has an elite offensive line to protect him. Many may choose to fade Hurts because the Jaguars defense has made highlight reels while beating up on the Colts and Chargers.
The difference in this game is that Jacksonville not only has to deal with Hurts, but also the elite offensive line. When they’re unable to get pressure, it’s likely to put strain on the secondary. That should lead to another elite performance from Hurts.
Marcus Mariota - Falcons vs Browns - FD $7,300 DK $5,600
Mariota is averaging over 16 fantasy points per game. Although that’s not a massive number, it includes games against the Saints and Rams. The key for the Falcons offense has been an impressive play-action game, Atlanta uses multiple TEs or multiple RBs on a big percentage of their plays. That allows Mariota to see defenses that can’t load up on defensive backs. And that’s helped him attain a career-high 8.1 yards per pass attempt.
The Browns pass defense hasn’t been good. They’ve allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to QBs, and that’s with them having faced Baker Mayfield, Joe Flacco and Mitch Trubisky. With WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts both being involved in the offense last week, it looks like Mariota will be able to have downfield success. And he could have plenty of time to throw with Myles Garrett having missed the entire week of practice.
Also Consider - Josh Allen, Zach Wilson
NFL DFS Week 4 Running Backs for FanDuel & DraftKings
Saquon Barkley - Giants vs. Bears - FD $8,100 DK $8,000
Barkley has been at the top of fantasy RB rankings with Nick Chubb through three weeks. This is the first time since 2018 that Barkley has looked like a superstar. But with his second big game having come this past Monday night, his salary hasn’t been properly adjusted to his production. In addition to averaging over 100 yards on the ground, he’s averaging five receptions.
He’ll be facing a Bears defense that’s allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to RBs and 115 rushing yards per game. In a game that should have positive game script, the Giants should be able to lean on their star RB. That should allow volume and production to intersect, which results in another strong fantasy performance.
Jamaal Williams - Lions vs. Seahawks - FD $7,400 DK $6,100
Williams has turned volume into strong production to start the season. He’s been a big factor near the goal line, as he’s already scored four TDs. Although he was slated to have a solid workload, he’s gotten a bit of a boost with D’Andre Swift battling injuries. With Swift (shoulder) sitting this one out, Williams should see an uptick in work, though he’s expected to split time with Craig Reynolds.
It’s in the passing game that Williams can make a big impact. The Lions will also be without Amon-Ra St. Brown, who runs most of his routes from the slot. That should result in Williams seeing work in the screen game. He’ll be facing a Seattle defense that’s giving up over five yards per carry along with six receptions per game to opposing RBs. In a game that Detroit should see favorable game script, Williams has potential for a strong floor and ceiling.
Rhamondre Stevenson - Patriots at Packers - FD $5,900 DK $5,200
Stevenson is one of the affordable RBs on DraftKings DFS who may be able to have a big fantasy day. His snap share has gone up significantly since he saw just 14 snaps in Week 1. In the last two games, he’s averaging almost six yards per carry. He also became a factor in the passing game last week when he caught four of five targets.
The Patriots will be without QB Mac Jones, and Brian Hoyer will likely need to lean on the run and screen game. Even though he’ll split work with Damien Harris, Stevenson should see plenty of snaps. He’ll face a Green Bay defense that is giving up 5.44 yards per carry, third-most in the league. Even the Chicago RBs dismantled this defense. The Packers typically don’t load the box, and they refused to do so against Justin Fields and the Bears, so expect more of the same against the Patriots. Regardless of game script, Stevenson has multiple paths to big production.
Also Consider - AJ Dillon, James Robinson, Nick Chubb
NFL DFS Week 4 Wide Receivers for FanDuel & DraftKings
Michael Pittman - Colts vs. Titans - FD $7,500 DK $7,200
Pittman is averaging 8.5 receptions, 95 yards and 11 targets, yet he’s extremely affordable in DFS. Despite his target volume, he’s seeing an average depth of target of 8.8, so he’s far more than an underneath possession WR. Despite playing with Carson Wentz last year, Pittman averaged eight catches, 77 yards and a TD against the Titans in two meetings. Tennessee is coming into this game having allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing WRs. They’re allowing 9.75 yards per target, the second-highest total in the league. In addition, WRs are averaging 205 yards and two TDs per game against them. There’s very little about this matchup that says anything other than Pittman is an elite option.
CeeDee Lamb - Cowboys vs Commanders - FD $6,800 DK $6,700
Lamb’s DFS salary would be higher, but his 8/87/1 stat line on 12 targets came on Monday night, which is after the weekly salaries were posted. In his two games with Cooper Rush, which came against two defenses in the top-12 in terms of fantasy points allowed to WRs, his floor was seven catches for 75 yards. So there’s no issue with the backup QB getting the most out of his alpha WR.
And Lamb will now have his first good matchup of the year. He’ll be facing a Washington defense that’s giving up 217 yards and 1.66 TDs per game to opposing WRs. Not only does Lamb possess an exceptional scoring floor at his salary, but if this game shoots out, he has an incredible ceiling.
Romeo Doubs - Packers vs. Patriots - FD $5,900 DK $4,500
Even though Doubs may have broken out last week, his DFS salary is showing skepticism. With Sammy Watkins and Christian Watson out in week 3, Doubs played 54 snaps. That led to opportunity. The rookie caught each of his eight targets, and most impressively, he was able to win in man coverage. That’s exactly what Aaron Rodgers wants his WRs to do.
Rodgers is the master at throwing the ball into single coverage to WRs he trusts. With very little upside on the Green Bay roster at WR, Doubs may have earned Rodgers’ trust. That would lead to continued target volume, and production. Although the Patriots have a solid pass defense - they’ve given up the fifth-fewest fantasy points to WRs - Aaron Rodgers could easily lead Doubs to another big game.
Also Consider - A.J. Brown, Cortland Sutton, Amari Cooper, Richie James
NFL DFS Week 4 Tight Ends for FanDuel & DraftKings
Mark Andrews - Ravens vs Bills - FD $8,400 DK $7,100
It’s obviously a chalk pick, but having a piece of the Ravens-Bills game may be necessary to compete in DFS this week. With WR-level production, Andrews still has the advantage of being priced at a TE discount. Even though Lamar Jackson is averaging 29 pass attempts per game, Andrews is seeing a 35% target share. That was more than Davante Adams was seeing in his Green Bay days.
And with an average of 97 yards and 1.5 TDs over the last two games, Andrews is on fire. Add in the fact that the Bills’ free safety Micah Hyde is out for the year, and the Bills in general are decimated in the secondary, and Andrews is a no-brainer.
Tyler Conklin - Jets at Steelers - FD $5,400 DK $3,600
We love volume. But we love cheap volume even more. Conklin is still very affordable, though he’s yet to see fewer than seven targets in a game. He’s also seen his yardage increase each week. Even though Zach Wilson takes over for Joe Flacco, that doesn’t mean Conklin’s target share will dry up. Wilson often threw short and in the middle of the field as a rookie, and with the QB having been out for nearly two months, he’s likely to keep things conservative. And the Jets could look to attack Pittsburgh with the TE after they gave up 89 yards and a TD to David Njoku last week.
Also Consider- David Njoku, Dawson Knox