Bill Speros for Bookies.com

By Bill Speros | | 13 mins

Top 5 NFL Week 6 Player Prop Bets: Nothing But Rookies

Top 5 NFL Week 6 Player Prop Bets: Nothing But Rookies
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The 2021 NFL betting season has developed a gaping age disparity.

The 44-year-old Tom Brady weighs down one side of the scale. After six games, the ageless GOAT has connected on 68.5% of his passes for 2,064 yards, 17 TDs and just 3 interceptions. Brady and his Bucs (-6.5) are 5-1 overall after outlasting but failing to cover against Philly 28-22 Thursday night. But the Bucs are 2-4 against the spread.

Brady’s most important pass of the night Thursday came on a roll-out (yes, he can roll out) to Antonio Brown on a 3rd-and-7 to put the game away – at least for those who bet Tampa Bay (-300) on the moneyline. Brady, who now wants to play into his 50s, was 29-for-30 on his passes under 10 yards thanks in large part to Leonard Fournette. Perhaps he is a system QB, after all.

Meanwhile, trying to balance the other end of our imaginary ledger are six rookie QBs who have started games in the NFL this season. Trevor Lawrence of the Jaguars, Zach Wilson of the Jets, Trey Lance of the 49ers, Justin Fields of the Bears, Mac Jones of the Patriots and Davis Mills of the Texans.

The youngest of those is San Francisco’s Lance. He was born on May 9, 2000, or 23 days after Brady was taken with the 199th pick in the NFL draft. But the Bears and Texans are both 3-2 ATS, ahead of the Bucs.


RELATED: NFL Week 6 Picks And Best Bets For Every Game


2021 Rookie QB Breakdown

Here’s a look at how all six rookie QBs have performed in 2021:

TeamQB C/AttYPass TD INT Spread Outright
JAXLawrence104/1751,146681-40-5
NEJones135/1901,243552-32-3
HOUMills59/96669551-43-2
NYJWilson98/1711,117491-41-4
CHIFields37/72458123-23-2
SFLance25/48354212-31-4

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Not all the rookies making an impact this season are quarterbacks. Tight end Kyle Pitts, who was born on Oct. 6, 2000, is the youngest player in the NFL this season. Pitts out of Florida was the No. 4 overall pick this year.

The Falcons finally worked Pitts into their offensive game plan last week during their win and cover in London over the Jets. LSU WR Ja’Marr Chase has also made an impact. He was taken by Cincinnati one pick after Pitts and was reunited with his former Bayou Bengal BFF QB Joe Burrow on the NFL's Bengals.

Week 6 Rookie Props To Back

Top 5 NFL Week 6 Player Prop Bets: Nothing But Rookies 1

To honor the play of all the NFL young’uns, we have examined the full board available and pulled five specific rookie-centric NFL odds props to back from the 13 games scheduled for Sunday and Monday. To make it easier, two of those rookie QBs – Lance and Wilson – and Pitts, are on byes this week. Here are our best picks from the top sportsbooks and on betting sites.

PlayerPropOdds
Trevor LawrenceOver 235.5 Yards Passing -115 at DraftKings
Trevor LawrenceOver 1.5 Passing TDs +100 at PointsBet
Justin Fields Under 202.5 Yards Passing -115 at BetMGM
Ja’Marr Chase Over 5.5 Receptions +100 at DraftKings
Mac JonesOver 268.5 Yards Passing -115 at BetMGM

Odds via DraftKings , PointsBet and BetMGM They are current as of publication. Check out our comparison of DraftKings vs FanDuel for more on two of the sports betting apps.

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Trevor Lawrence, Over 1.5 Passing TDs

Odds: -115 at DraftKings

Trevor Lawrence, Over 235.5 Yards Passing

Odds: +100 at PointsBet

The Jaguars and Dolphins have home stadiums in the same state located 332.8 miles apart. So naturally, both teams and the NFL agreed to play this week in London. Unfortunately for those long-suffering NFL fans on Florida’s Eastern Seaboard (who don’t root for the Patriots, Cowboys or Bucs), neither team will be staying in England after the game.

Jags coach Urban Meyer probably lost this locker room in Week 1. Even if he chooses to hang in the local dance clubs and pubs all weekend, the Jaguars match up well against the Dolphins. Believe it or not, the Dolphins may be more dysfunctional.

If the Jags need to head across the Atlantic Ocean to end their 20-game losing streak, why not? Brady had 411 yards passing last week against Miami and 5 TDs. Lawrence should be good for roughly half those totals against a lackluster defense.

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Justin Fields, Under 200.5 Yards Passing

Odds: -115 at BetMGM

Fields faces the Packers and Aaron Rodgers for the first time. Rodgers, meanwhile, is 21-5 against Chicago. This is a low number and rests below the average for yards passing allowed by Green Bay (220.4) this season. But the Packers have faced Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Jimmy Garoppolo, Ben Roethlisberger and Joe Burrow in their five games.

Fields is a terrific athlete and showed he knows how to win last week against the Raiders. (Fields hyperextended his knee last week but is expected to play Sunday.) But he only threw the ball 20 times for 111 yards in the victory over the Raiders and amassed just 209 yards passing in his first start against the Lions. The Bears will want to keep this close and the ball on the ground.

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Top 5 NFL Week 6 Player Prop Bets: Nothing But Rookies 2

Ja’Marr Chase, Over 5.5 Receptions

Odds: +100 at DraftKings

The Bengals nearly upset the Packers at home but were unable to connect on multiple field goal tries that would have won the game, which ended with a 25-22 OT loss. The Bengals did score a backdoor cover at +5.5.

Burrow and Chase are back in their Baton Rouge groove. Chase has been targeted 19 times in the past two games and has 6 catches in each. The winless Lions should give Chase an ample opportunity to go over that number.


RELATED: NFL Week 6 Odds For All Games On The Schedule


Mac Jones, Over 268.5 Yards Passing

Odds: -115 at BetMGM

The Patriots and Cowboys meet in Foxboro. Dallas’ defense yields an NFL-worst 331 YPG through the air. Jones is averaging 239.8 YPG passing. That average puts Jones slightly below the number here.

Jones continues to take a beating and is throwing too many picks. But the Patriots’ offensive line will get some of the regulars back this week. And tight ends Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith are finally starting to produce.

Dallas has not won at New England since 1987, when Herschel Walker ran for a 60-yard TD in overtime at the old Foxboro/Sullivan/Schaefer Stadium.

Now, Walker is running for the Senate in Georgia. Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense averages 439.6 YPG and 34 PPG – both No. 2 in the NFL. But Bill Belichick awaits. This will be fun to watch.

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About the Author

Bill Speros for Bookies.com
Bill Speros
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.