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Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints Picks & Predictions Thanksgiving Night
Adam Thompson | 7 mins
Powerhouse teams on worrying downslides face off in the Thanksgiving Day tripleheader finale when the New Orleans Saints host the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo (6-4) has dropped three of five, including a puzzler to the Jaguars and a blowout defeat last week from the Colts.
The Saints (5-5) have lost three in a row since Trevor Siemian took over at QB. Each team allowed 40-plus points on Sunday. Sportsbooks have Buffalo as a 4.5-point road favorite, but some betting sites and leading betting apps, have moved the line to -4.
Take a look at Saints vs Bills odds, injury report, betting lines and more.
Bills vs. Saints Key Matchups
Saints RBs vs. Bills LBs: Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram combine to average nearly eight receptions per game. The Bills allow 4.0 receptions to RBs, fifth-fewest.
Marquez Callaway vs. Bills DBs: Callaway leads New Orleans with six TDs, including one in each of the three games started by Trevor Siemian. Buffalo has allowed just three pass TDs to WRs all season.
Dawson Knox vs. Saints Defense: The Bills are 4-0 when Knox scores a TD and 1-3 when he doesn’t (he missed one game). New Orleans has surrendered a single touchdown to opposing TEs all season.
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RELATED: NFL Week 12 Odds & Betting Lines For All Games
5 Key Bills vs. Saints Stats
0: Starts for Saints WR Deonte Harris – who ranks second on the team in receptions (26) and first in yards (418) despite also missing a game.
3.6: Yards per carry this season for Alvin Kamara. He averaged 5.0 in 2020 and has never finished below 4.6 in a season.
47.2: The rushing yards differential for the Bills in wins vs. losses. Buffalo is averaging 137.7 ypg on the ground in its six wins, compared to only 90.5 in four defeats.
72.9: The rush yards per game being allowed by New Orleans before being gashed for 242 by the Eagles last Sunday. Their 82.9 average still ranks third.
191.7: Yards per game allowed through the air by the Bills defense, the lowest total in the league. New Orleans ranks 29th in passing yards.
Bills vs. Saints Weather Forecast
Weather won’t be a factor inside the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, where it will be without weather and a balmy 72 degrees. The high in the Big Easy for gameday is 74, with cloudy skies but no chance of rain.
Bills vs Saints Player Props
Devin Singletary, Over 35.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards
Odds: -120 at PointsBet
Singletary is trending upward, getting more carries and receptions lately, while fellow RB Zach Moss is trending downward. We just saw the Eagles gash the Saints for 244 rushing yards with a Singletary-type RB and a running QB. Feed his carries and he gets well past this number just on running. He’s also received three-plus receptions in three of the last five games. The Saints allow 42.8 ypg receiving to RBs.
Josh Allen, Over 32.5 Rushing Yards
Odds: -115 at DraftKings ➜
We’ll go to the well twice with the rushing. Trends clearly show the Bills have a good offense when Allen passes, but it’s great when he’s a dual-threat. They need to get back to that, and the Eagles provided the blueprint. Allen has gained just 21 yards the last two weeks but had 50-plus in three of the previous four.
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Tre’Quan Smith, Over 37.5 Receiving Yards
Odds: -110 at FanDuel ➜
Smith has worked to get 53, 44 and 64 yards with Trevor Siemian as starting QB, well ahead of the clips of fellow starter Marquez Callaway. Buffalo’s defense is great vs. the pass, but the Saints have to move the ball somehow, and without Alvin Kamara or a pass-catching TE, Smith should again be the top option.
Bills vs. Saints Moneyline
The Bills are -200 on the moneyline, meaning a $200 wager would win $100 in profit. On the other side, the host Saints are at +170 (+100 wins $170 in profit).
Neither team has given us much reason lately to back them. But the Bills, for all their issues, still rank No. 5 in total offense and have the NFL’s top-ranked defense, allowing only 283.7 yards per game - something local New York sports betting fans should keep in mind.
Since Jameis Winston was lost for the season, the Saints haven’t won a game, including a home loss to the Falcons and on the road to the Derrick Henry-less Titans.
New Orleans’ key strength was in its run defense, but that was gashed for 240 by the Eagles on Sunday. Buffalo would be the play here, but the spread odds make it more palpable.
Bills vs. Saints Point Spread
When it comes to NFL spreads, the Saints are 5-5, alternating between covers and non-covers all season. They didn’t cover this week so the trend would suggest hitting the number here. The Bills have alternated their last six, but are also due for a cover.
Still, the matchups favor Buffalo. With Kamara’s status unknown and on a short week, we don’t know what the Saints can do. We know what the Bills can do, it’s just a matter of which Buffalo team shows up. Those looking for a Thursday night side as part of your NFL picks should consider Buffalo.
Bills vs. Saints Totals
The Over/Under for Thursday Night Football is 46.5 points, a middle-of-the-pack number. The last three weeks, these teams are averaging 47 ppg, but on the season that number is 54.6.
If we prefer the later trends, keep in mind these teams are also allowing 52.3 ppg the last three weeks (39.4 all season). The Over has hit in the Saints’ last four games and is on a 7-3 run in Bills road games. Under has been profitable on Thursdays, but the Over looks like the better side for your NFL betting Week 12 Thanksgiving picks ticket.
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