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Derrick Henry Trade Odds: Will He Stay With Tennessee Titans?
Adam Thompson | 12 mins
Few would dispute the claim that Derrick Henry has been the top running back in the NFL the past four seasons. Since 2019, the Tennessee Titans' workhorse has led the NFL in rushes three times, and in rushing yards, yards per game and touchdowns twice.
But in the last two seasons, there has been signs of health concerns and decline. Now the Titans, who traded A.J. Brown last offseason, are reportedly shopping the 2020 Offensive Player of the Year.
While the price tag may be high for a lot of teams, especially for a running back, his presence in the right backfield could make a season-altering difference.
Bookies.com oddsmaker Adam Thompson has used his resources of NFL contacts developed over 20 years covering the league to create his hypothetical NFL futures odds on Henry’s team for the 2023 season.
Derrick Henry 2023 Team Odds
Odds above are projected and not currently available at legal betting sites or betting apps. This page will be updated should odds become available.
Henry gained 2,027 yards with 17 TDs in 2020, firmly establishing himself as the top RB in the world. But in 2021, he missed half the season due to injury.
He played 16 games in 2022 and led the league in attempts, but finished a distant No. 2 in yards and his yards per carry plummeted from 5.1 and 5.4 yards in ’19 and ’20 to 4.3 and 4.4 the last two seasons. The latter number ranked 25th in 2022.
Henry comes with a cap hit of $16.4 million, second only to Ezekiel Elliott among RBs. In today’s NFL, that’s an exceptionally high amount for the position. But Henry will be a free agent after the 2023 season, so for a team with a big need, extra cash to spend and the desire to take a leap, Henry could be a game-changer.
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With $19 million in free space, the Titans are currently in a good spot in terms of the salary cap. They don’t have to move Henry if they don’t want to. This would be a sell-high move only. If they don’t get value in a trade, they just keep him.
The case to move him would be if the Titans plan to revamp their offense in 2023. With Henry they've been a run-first attack, and a successful one. But the rest of the NFL has largely invested in the pass over the run and the Titans seem to have hit a ceiling with Henry. Moving on would allow Tennessee to modernize its offense, potentially recouping some value in the process.
There are several contenders that would love to have Henry in their backfield, but whether they want to, or can afford to, is another story. Only one team clearly checks both boxes, but only at the moment.
The Baltimore Ravens are one of the NFL’s true run-first teams. Yet they don’t appear to be all-in on their tandem of J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards. John Harbaugh could see Henry as a massive upgrade to get Baltimore back in the Super Bowl hunt in a tough AFC.
That said, if the Ravens decide to stick with Lamar Jackson, Henry is no slam dunk financially. That opens the doors for other teams to have a shot.
The Philadelphia Eagles and Buffalo Bills are both in the market. Philly is expected to lose Miles Sanders in free agency and is close to the cap number. Buffalo has been looking for an upgrade for Devin Singletary since drafting him, but the Bills are $18.7 million over the cap.
No contender needs a RB more than the Miami Dolphins, who lose most their production to free agency. But at $15.3 million over the cap, they’re not in a great spot to make a splash at the position.
The Eagles get the nod, not just due to cap space, but due to conference affiliation. If the Titans can trade Henry out of the AFC, they will.
The Carolina Panthers jettisoned Christian McCaffrey and his large contract in the middle of 2022, so while the need may be there, the interest may not be enough to spend big at the position.
The last two teams are on the list because they prioritize rushing and are flush with cap space. The Chicago Bears and Atlanta Falcons can afford Henry right now. The Bears led the NFL in rushing thanks in large part to QB Justin Fields, the Falcons were No. 3. Neither team currently has RB atop its offseason wish list.
The Field includes other teams that could use an upgrade at the position but have compelling reasons to avoid Henry. That includes the Dallas Cowboys, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Arizona Cardinals and New Orleans Saints.
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