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Falcons vs Eagles Picks & Week 1 NFL Betting Preview

Eytan Shander for Bookies.com

Eytan Shander  | 8 mins

Falcons vs Eagles Picks & Week 1 NFL Betting Preview

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The Eagles and Falcons begin the new season full of low expectations all-around - from what’s new in Philadelphia to what’s old in Atlanta. There’s usually good value with NFL betting when it comes to bad teams playing each other.

The Eagles completely remade their team from new coaching staff to talent - including barely second-year QB Jalen Hurts. Meanwhile, Matt Ryan returns with a steady offense, but it’s the defense that’s always in question. The Eagles hit the ATL as a +3.5-point underdog and sit at +170 on the moneyline. Most sportsbooks have the Falcons as a 2-to-1 favorite. The total is decent at 48 – just over the key number of 47.

Here is everything you need to know about the Eagles vs Falcons odds heading into Week 1.

RELATED: Check Out The Latest NFL Week 1 Odds & Betting Lines

Eagles vs. Falcons Key Matchups

Matt Ryan vs. Eagles Secondary: Ryan gets a super talented rookie TE in Kyle Pitts, plus Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage as means to replace any void left by Julio Jones’ departure. The Eagles have a new DC and are confident in both Darius Slay and Steven Nelson as their cornerbacks. If Ryan has time, this will be the most exploitable matchup for the Falcons.

Jalen Hurts vs. Falcons LB: While so much focus will be on how efficient Hurts can be throwing the ball in this new offense – don’t be surprised to see him take off for a couple of big runs. The Falcons will have to spy or sacrifice some deep-middle coverage to keep an eye on him.

Falcons DL vs. Eagles OL: The main strength of the Eagles is their offensive line; they simply haven’t been healthy over the past couple of years. The Falcons have some talent but just can’t put it together on defense. If the Eagles can stay healthy through four quarters of football, it will be plenty to open some wide holes for Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell.

CHECK OUT : Jalen Hurts’ Record ATS and Matt Ryan’s Record ATS

Eagles vs. Falcons Key Stats

  • 5 – The home team has covered the spread in each of the last five meetings between these two teams. While trends should never be taken alone in making NFL picks, the Falcons are taking on a brand-new Eagles team that barely played their starters all preseason.
  • 293.6 – Average passing yards allowed by the Falcons last season – one that was good enough for last in the league. The Eagles will have chances to throw the ball deep with new addition Devonta Smith and second year WR Jalen Reagor.
  • 4.1 Sacks Allowed – The Eagles were last in the NFL last year in giving up sacks. Injury was a huge factor in how brutal their line play was, at the very least they start out healthy on Sunday.
  • 2 – Two series, that’s it. That’s all Hurts played in the preseason, missing the final two games – for different reasons.
  • 17 – Hard to think anyone will ever break Randy Moss and his 17 TD grabs as a rookie, but Pitts certainly should come close.

Eagles vs. Falcons Player Props To Consider

Dallas Goedert, Anytime TD Scorer

Odds: +275 at DraftKings

The Falcons are awful at covering the tight end position and Goedert should feast as Hurts’ main target.

Jalen Hurts, Under 224.5 Pass Yards

Odds: +125 at PointsBet

Hurts won’t take a ton of shots downfield against Atlanta and won’t be able to rely on screen-passing his way to 300 yards. Expect a clean 200-yard day in the air, nestling in the under 224.

Alex Singleton, Over 5.5 Tackles

Odds: +115 at DraftKings

Singleton is the main LB for the Eagles who will be out there for most of the game. While Eric Wilson is their cover LB, Singleton stays in on 2 LB packages, giving him all the volume we need for 6 tackles.

Mike Davis, 75+ Rush Yards

Odds: +125 at PointsBet

The Eagles rush defense was bottom third last season and didn’t get any better this year. Davis is the new feature back who can catch the ball. Expect a big run – or two – from Davis to hit this over.

Russell Gage, Anytime TD Scorer

Odds: +210 at DraftKings

Gage will be the forgotten man on a couple of plays, giving him a chance to sneak behind the Eagles defense. He has big-play capability and won’t have a safety over the top, as Philly will be focused on both Ridley and Pitts before Gage.

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Eagles vs. Falcons Moneyline

The biggest difference between the two teams is the unknown factor on offense. Most times – not all – betting on variance plays in our favor. It’s a risk but betting the unknown can pay off exponentially. Unfortunately for the Eagles (+170) there are too many new components all around, all at once. Add in how little Hurts played in the preseason, and it’s clear why most why betting apps have the Falcons are such a heavy favorite at -200.

I’d either lay the points for Atlanta or use the ML play as an anchor in a parlay at BetMGM.

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Eagles vs. Falcons Spread

Opening the season at home has been kind to Atlanta, winning 11 of their last 13 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. We have seen rare moments in which the Falcons are just better than their opponent, which is clearly the case against the Eagles. Betting sites are aware of this, so don’t expect the hook to drop by kickoff as you check out last-minute NFL spreads.

Newly acquired Mike Davis on the ground adds some balance to the offense. It’s really a matter of who will make the least number of mistakes, something I’m confident betting the Falcons. Way too many new and younger players on the Eagles to trust this early in the season. Pound the Falcons at FanDuel

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Eagles vs. Falcons Total

This is an interesting number because of how close it sits – albeit over – to the key number of 47. Based on the entire preview one could easily walk away with the impression this game will be a shootout, something I’d strongly caution against betting.

Both teams – for completely different reasons – are going to be committed to the ground game, which should help move the clock. Davis is Atlanta’s new feature back, and the Eagles boast two young talents in Sanders and Gainwell. Hurts will also be asked to get the ball out fast, and even run a little more than necessary.

The Falcons won’t be down by 30 points so there won’t be any real reason to stretch the field in the second half. Love the Under at DraftKings.

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About the Author

Eytan Shander for Bookies.com
Eytan Shander
Eytan Shander writes about the NFL, NBA and more for Bookies.com. A 15-year radio veteran, he has worked nationally for Mad Dog Radio & NBC Sports Radio.