Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

By Adam Thompson | | 8 mins

Jaguars vs Bengals Picks & TNF Betting Predictions NFL Week 4

Jaguars vs Bengals Picks & TNF Betting Predictions NFL Week 4
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Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals take a 2-1 record into Thursday Night Football when they host Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Cincy has downed the Vikings and Steelers but need to avoid a letdown here against the winless Jaguars (0-3), who have lost all three so far by double digits.

Sportsbooks have Cincinnati as a 7.5-point favorite, with betting sites and top betting apps moving the line from -6.5 when it opened following Week 3 Sunday action.

Check out the latest Bengals vs. Jaguars odds, betting lines, injury report and more.

Jaguars vs. Bengals Key Matchups

James Robinson vs. Bengals LBs: No team has allowed more running back receptions than the Bengals. Robinson’s 12 catches, and 15 targets, rank 10th among NFL RBs so far.

Joe Mixon vs. Jaguars Run D: The Bengals, and Joe Burrow, have been most successful when the run is established. Jacksonville has allowed 91, 96 and 160 yards on the ground in three games.

Ja’Marr Chase vs. Jaguars CBs: Jacksonville traded No. 3 CB C.J. Henderson to the Panthers on Monday, leaving them short-handed. Chase has become the big-play favored target for former college teammate Burrow.


RELATED: NFL Week 4 Odds & Betting Lines For All 16 Games


5 Key Jaguars vs. Bengals Stats

0: Sacks allowed by the Bengals O-line on Sunday, snapping the Steelers’ 75-game streak of at least one. Burrow had been sacked nine times in the two previous games.

14.9: The Jaguars are allowing 14.9 yards per reception to opposing WRs, easily the most in the league.

23.3: The QBR for Jaguars rookie Trevor Lawrence. Only fellow rookies Zach Wilson (22.1) and Justin Fields (7.1) are lower.

70: Cincinnati is 2-0 when it rushes for more than 70 yards. Jacksonville has allowed at least 91 in each game this season.

250: The Bengals are on a 0-4 against the spread run in games after allowing 250-plus pass yards the week prior. Cincy allowed 318 to Pittsburgh in Week 3, though on 58 attempts.


Jaguars vs. Bengals Player Props To Consider

Joe Burrow, Over 245.5 Yards

Odds: -115 at DraftKings

The Jaguars have been OK at slowing down run games, but not so much vs. the pass, allowing 311 ypg through the air. The Bengals prefer to run, but if the opportunity is there, as it was Week 1 vs. Minnesota (261 yards), Burrow has the skills and the targets for a big night.

Ja’Marr Chase, Over 64.5 Receiving Yards

Odds: -115 at DraftKings

This seems like a possible prime time, breakout game for both Burrow and Chase, college teammates looking to make their mark. The Jaguars rank 29th in yards allowed to WRs and allow the most yards per reception.

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Trevor Lawrence, Longest Pass Under 36.5 Yards

Odds: -115 at DraftKings

The big-play QB at Clemson has not found the rhythm to be so bold in the NFL. Lawrence has just one pass all season that’s gone farther than 30 yards. On the flip side, the Bengals’ bend-don’t-break defense has allowed just one completion over 30 yards, and it was only 34.


Jaguars vs. Bengals Weather Forecast

The weather in Cincinnati should be perfect for evening football in the fall. The forecast calls for cloudy skies, but no precipitation, and a high of 81 degrees. The evening cools to the 60s for kickoff, with little to no wind.


Jaguars vs. Bengals Moneyline

The Bengals are a solid -340 on the moneyline, meaning a $340 wager would win $100 in profit. On the other side, Jacksonville is at +270 ($100 wins $270 in profit).

I think the Bengals win, but this is a high price on an unproven product. Sure, the Bengals dispatched of both Minnesota and Pittsburgh, two playoff teams. But they also gave Chicago its only win of the season. Jacksonville has been mostly uncompetitive but the cost is too high.

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Jaguars vs. Bengals Point Spread

NFL spreads just over seven points can be a risky proposition, as this one currently is. Cincinnati is favored with the spread at -7.5, a number that is begging for a Jaguars backing. But that means backing a team that has shown no reason to back it. Trevor Lawrence has completed just 50% of his passes to lead an offense that ranks 28th in scoring.

Joe Burrow handed the Bears a Week 3 win after three-consecutive INTs, but bounced back with three TDs and only one INT vs. the Steelers. Joe Mixon ran the ball effectively as well. There are reasons to back the Bengals, and the Jaguars have given us enough reason to fade them, even at this tricky point spread. Buy a half-point to be safe, but those looking for a Thursday night side as part of your NFL picks can feel good about laying points with Cincy.

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Jaguars vs. Bengals Totals

The Over/Under for Thursday Night Football is 45.5 points, down slightly from the 46-point total at the opening line. That number is on the lower end of the Week 4 NFL schedule.

This line may not be low enough. We know Jacksonville struggles to score, but the Bengals may be scoring more than it should. Cincy ranks average in scoring at 22.4 ppg (17th) but it’s 28th in yards gained.

The Jaguars’ defense has been better than its offense, and the run game showed signs of life for both teams. This total is low, but perhaps not low enough. Consider the Under as part of your NFL betting lineup for Week 4. You can get Under 46.5 (-115) at FanDuel .

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com.