Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs can all-but put the AFC West to bed in Week 11 when they take on Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday Night Football. 

The Chiefs (7-2) own a two-game lead on the Chargers (5-4) for the division, with the Broncos and Raiders already well out of the race. A win here gives KC a three-game lead and the tiebreaker for a season sweep. The Chiefs edged the Chargers 27-24 in Week 2 of the NFL betting season. 

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The game is in L.A., but Kansas City is favored by 5.5 points in the latest Chiefs vs. Chargers odds on betting apps, down from -6.5 earlier in the week. An Over/Under of 50.5 points is set for a meeting between two of the top passing attacks in football. 

Bookies.com NFL handicapper Adam Thompson is 15-8 +898 on his Sunday Night Football top plays and player prop picks. Thompson – who hit on 59.3% of his NFL best bets this season, and 62-64% of his NFL picks in each of the last three years – reveals his plays for this AFC West showdown.

Chiefs vs. Chargers Point Spread Pick

The Chiefs have covered the spread in eight of their last nine trips to Los Angeles/San Diego. They were laying four points at home when they beat the Chargers 27-24 earlier. L.A.’s injury woes at receiver have pushed this line despite the location. 

But it’s too many points, sorry Kansas sports betting fans. The Chargers’ main issue, run defense, is something the Chiefs are unlikely to take advantage of. KC’s 27th-ranked pass defense, however, is prime for Herbert and whoever is out there to catch balls. It’s not our top play for Sunday night, but it’s best to lean Chargers with those points. 

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Chiefs vs. Chargers Over/Under Best Bet

These teams will pass until the defense stops it. But that’s unlikely to happen, based on previous matchups and season results. Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert combine for nearly 600 yards through the air per week. 

When KC is on the road, Mahomes really comes alive – and the defense struggles. Chiefs road games are averaging a robust 60.3 ppg. Primetime games have trended Under, and the Chargers’ scoring has been down lately, but those trends end here. The Over is our favorite play for SNF. 

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Chiefs vs. Chargers Moneyline Pick

In the last four meetings between Mahomes’ Chiefs and Herbert’s Chargers, L.A. won two of them and KC won the other two, one by 3 and the other in OT. Kansas City is -255 on the moneyline, a price that’s too high given the recent history of close games between these teams. 

The Chargers are +215 on the moneyline, meaning a $100 bet wins $215 in profit. There remains uncertainty with a short-handed offense that is generating 19.5 ppg the last four weeks. I’m expecting more, but would prefer the safer spread pick with the points. 

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Best Chiefs vs. Chargers Player Props

Patrick Mahomes, Under 27.5 Rush Yards

Odds: -110 at BetMGM

Mahomes has been a bigger part of the run game the last two weeks, getting 6-7 carries for 63 and 39 yards, respectively. But the Chargers haven’t been beaten by any QB’s legs. They allow just 10.4 rush yards per game, among the best in the NFL. That includes allowing just 24 yards to Marcus Mariota and seven yards to Trevor Lawrence, and minus-1 yards to Mahomes in Week 2. 

Travis Kelce, Over 77.5 Receiving Yards

Odds: -110 at DraftKings

Kelce had just five catches for 51 yards in Week 2 vs. the Chargers. But he’d gained at least 90 yards in four of the last five meetings including 104 and 191 in the two 2021 games. JuJu Smith-Shuster won’t play, offering even more target opportunities for a TE that’s getting 9.3 targets per game already. He’s had 10-plus targets three other times and gained 92, 108 and 106 yards in those games.