Roughed up by injuries to WRs, the Chargers offense has managed only 19-23 points each of the last three weeks, and two of those games were against bottom-level defenses in Seattle and Atlanta. Here come the Niners, fresh off a bye and ranked No. 1 in yards allowed. 

Deebo Samuel is back following the bye, paired with Christian McCaffrey for the first time. McCaffrey alone should have a big day against L.A.’s 29th-ranked run D. L.A.’s offense should struggle to keep up. Since Week 1, the Niners have been favored by six or more points twice, winning both by 22 and 20 points. Laying the points with the Niners is one of my favorite plays of the week. 

No team allows fewer yards than the 49ers, but they’re only sixth in points allowed and have given up more at home than on the road. The Chargers defense is a shambles, allowing 25.8 ppg. Only the Cardinals and Lions give up more. They’re especially poor vs. the run, with McCaffrey and Deebo on deck. 

L.A.’s offense is banged up and struggling but the Over has hit in four of their last five games not involving the Broncos. The Over has also cashed in three of the last four Niners games. Sunday night games have not been high-scoring affairs, so we’re not all-in on the Over, but that’s the preferred side. 

The Niners are -280 on the moneyline on NFL betting sites, meaning it would take a $280 wager to win $100 in profit. That’s steep, especially against a team that actually has a better overall record. 

The Chargers are +230 on sports betting sites, which feels like the value here. 

But we’re not playing that side. Nobody has seen what Kyle Shanahan is drawing up with both McCaffrey and Samuel on the field, and the L.A. defense is not equipped to stop whatever is coming. Still, the Niners are two Garoppolo INTs from this being a game, and Herbert is still a gamer. We’d rather play it safe and lay the points at -110 than back SF at those big odds on betting apps.

Austin Ekeler, Under 44.5 Rushing Yards

Odds: -115 at DraftKings

Ekeler has gained 36, 31 and 47 yards the last three weeks, and didn’t average 3.5 yards per rush in any of them. No team allows fewer yards on the ground than the 49ers. Add to it that RB2 Isiah Spiller is finally here. He got his first real action last week and had seven carries for 29 yards (4.1 avg). Ekeler has been far more effective in the pass game (29 receptions the last three weeks) so expect more of that and less of him getting handed the ball. 

Jimmy Garoppolo, Under 242.5 passing yards

Odds: -110 at BetMGM

Only four teams have allowed fewer pass yards to receivers than the Chargers. The Chargers haven’t given up more than 230 yards passing since Week 3. But only the Texans allow more rushing yards to RBs. We don’t know what Kyle Shanahan has up his sleeve with McCaffrey and Samuel both available, but both should get ample touches out of the backfield. The 49ers will run to set up the pass, and run as often as L.A. allows. Garoppolo is better than most seem to think, but the Niners are unbeaten when he doesn’t toss an INT and winless when he does. It behooves them to run.