By Adam Thompson | | 4 mins
Latest Tua Tagovailoa NFL Draft Odds & Bets Amid Trade Rumors
Barring an unforeseen meltdown, the Cincinnati Bengals will select LSU quarterback Joe Burrow with the No. 1 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft on Thursday. Ohio State defensive end Chase Young should go No. 2 to the Washington Redskins.
Then things could get interesting for NFL futures bettors, and it’s because of Tua Tagovailoa. The Alabama quarterback is considered by some teams to be a can’t-miss future star, a talented-but-risky proposition to others. How much teams want Tagovailoa on their roster will shape the next few picks, and the dominoes fall from there.
Team To Draft Tua Tagovailoa
|Los Angeles Chargers||+175|
|Las Vegas Raiders||+1000|
|New England Patriots||+2500|
|Green Bay Packers||+3300|
|New Orleans Saints||+3300|
Tagovailoa Draft Position
Odds current as of publication and subject to change.
Why Take Tua?
Tagovailoa has been sensational when he’s on the field. His first real action was when he replaced Jalen Hurts at halftime of the 2017 national championship game, leading the Crimson Tide to a rally and a title. In 2018 he passed for 43 TDs and six INTs, and in 2019 he threw 33 TDs and just three INTs before being injured. His game instincts are off the charts, and he can scramble and run for gains.
Tagovailoa suffered a major hip injury at Alabama that forced him to miss the final six games of the 2019 season. If he doesn’t experience that, Tua is in consideration to be the No. 1 overall pick.
Why Pass On Tua?
He did suffer a hip dislocation and a fracture around it, and also has injured his left ankle, right ankle and hand at Alabama. He’s been given a clean bill of health by Alabama doctors, but with the unique situation of this year’s draft, NFL teams haven’t been able to get their own doctors to see him.
One team reportedly got its hands on Tua before the coronavirus lockdown for a physical — and failed him, according to a story in The Washington Post.
When Does Tua Get Picked?
When this line first came out more than a month ago, the Over/Under was 3.5. Now it’s 5.5.
Burrow and Young should be locks at Nos. 1 and 2. The Lions hold No. 3 and if anyone is trading up to get Tua, this is the spot — the Dolphins and Jaguars have been rumored to want to move up. It makes too much sense for the Lions to draft CB Jeff Okudah here, realizing before it’s too late that adding the shutdown corner dramatically improves the team’s biggest weakness. The Giants are likely to choose their favorite offensive lineman at No. 4.
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That leaves the Dolphins at No. 5 and the Chargers at No. 6. Tagovailoa isn’t falling past the sixth pick. Take the Under 5.5 on Tagovailoa’s draft position. You get not only the favorite at No. 5 with the Dolphins, you get the No. 3 spot as well, in case a team makes a blockbuster move to get him.
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Which Team Takes Tua?
It’s not out of the realm of possibility that the Dolphins take Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert over Tagovailoa, or that another team leapfrogs the competition and nabs him at No. 3.
With plus-odds that are close to L.A., Miami makes more sense to back here. First, at No. 5 the Dolphins are in front of other teams desperately seeking a QB (the Bengals excluded). Two, they have better draft capital to trade up to No. 3 than any other team.
When it comes to overall talent, the prevailing thought is there’s a considerable gap between Tagovailoa and Herbert. Herbert is the safer pick, but Tagovailoa has next-level potential. The Dolphins aren’t in a win-now situation (the Chargers are), so if Tagovailoa needs time, they can offer it.
I think the Dolphins take the leap with Tagovailoa, and they get him with the fifth overall pick. Bet it at Unibet.