By Adam Thompson | | 9 mins
Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals Odds, Best Bets & Picks
The Miami Dolphins take an undefeated record into Thursday Night Football, as Tua Tagovailoa aims to keep the magic going against Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals to open Week 4 of the 2022 NFL betting season.
Tagovailoa, who ranks No. 2 in yards and No. 2 in overall QB rating through three weeks, was knocked out of Sunday’s game against the Buffalo Bills. He did return and led Miami to a dramatic 21-19 victory. Cincinnati just got its first win, pounding the Jets. The reigning AFC champions lost their first two games, each by a field goal.
Host Cincy is favored by three points in the latest Dolphins vs. Bengals odds, with an Over/Under of 47.5, the fifth-highest posted total of Week 4 on betting apps.
Bookies.com NFL handicapper Adam Thompson – who hit on 75% of his NFL predictions in Week 3 – reveals his plays for this marquee AFC matchup.
Dolphins vs. Bengals Point Spread Picks
The Dolphins have covered every game this season, but smoke and mirrors are in effect to some extent. Miami’s defense ranks 31st against the pass – bad news here, especially – and 31st in rushing the ball. Tua’s brilliance has bailed the Dolphins out of two games. The third game, the offense didn’t score but they still won.
Cincinnati hasn’t been as explosive offensively as some would have expected, but it’s been consistent, putting up between 20-27 points in all three. The home team has covered the last five meetings between these teams. Cincy has won ATS in its last seven games against teams with winning records. Miami, the lone remaining unbeaten team in the AFC, certainly qualifies. While you can't wager on Ohio betting apps just yet (the state gets sports betting on Jan. 1), those in legal states should lay the field goal on the host Bengals for their Bengals vs. Dolphins picks.
Dolphins vs. Bengals Over/Under Best Bet
Despite Miami’s second-ranked passing attack, and despite Cincinnati’s weapons in the pass game, this current total has only been achieved once in the six games played by these teams.
Miami and Baltimore put on an 80-point display, though the Dolphins’ other two games didn’t come that close, at 27 and 40. Bengals games have totaled 43, 37 and 39. The 43-pointer required overtime.
The Under is 5-1-1 in the last seven matchups between these teams, and is on a 5-0 run in Cincinnati. Despite the belief that Burrow and his crop of receivers is all but unstoppable, the Under is on a huge 8-0 run in Bengals games. For Miami, the Under has cashed in five of six on the road. Back the Under here as well for your Bengals vs. Dolphins best bets.
Dolphins vs. Bengals Moneyline Pick
Eventually, Miami is going to run into a buzzsaw. To the Dolphins’ credit, Buffalo wasn’t it, and the Bills were the most fearsome team in football through two weeks. Cincinnati comes in with a banged-up running back (Joe Mixon) but a pass game that is due for a big breakout.
Cincy is -170 on the moneyline at sports betting sites. We’d prefer to lay the points at lower odds. If you venture into the moneyline, the Bengals are the way to go.
Best Dolphins vs. Bengals Player Props
Hayden Hurst, Over 27.5 Receiving Yards
Hurst was limited in Week 3 due to a groin injury, but in the first two weeks he logged five receptions in each game, for 46 and 24 yards and played in at least 75% of snaps.
Hurst practiced fully on Wednesday so is presumably a full go for Thursday. The matchup is good; Miami not only ranks 31st in passing yards overall, it has struggled containing tight ends. No team has allowed more receptions to the position so far, and only the Cardinals have allowed more than the 82.3 yards per game Miami gives up.
Tyreek Hill, Score a TD
Hill has a score to settle with Bengals cornerback Eli Apple from last year’s AFC Championship Game, and has let it known he’s coming for him here. Tua has pledged support and there’s no better way to get back at a CB than to put six on him.
Add to it that fellow Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle may be limited with a groin injury, and that means more opportunities for others. That starts with Hill. Expect a strong game; we’ll back the plus odds with the scoring prop.