Most Bet On NFL Week 12 Games: Title Game Previews Hit Titletowns
The NFL betting Week 12 schedule is served in two portions. The first course is consumed on Thanksgiving Day.
The main course comes Sunday. It features a potential matchup for the AFC Championship Game and the NFC Championship Game. Those games should draw the most action of the Sunday games at betting sites and sportsbooks.
The first game of the day kicks off in Foxboro. The AFC East leading Patriots (7-4/7-4 ATS) have won five straight. They play host to Titans (8-3/7-4 ATS) who lead the AFC South. Mike Vrabel has never lost to Bill Belichick as a head coach. Of course, Vrabel won three Super Bowls playing for Belichick as member of the Patriots in the first decade of the 21st century.
The betting public is leaning on the Patriots and the line on this game has swelled from New England -1.5 to -6.5 since it was first posted last week. The Patriots’ dominant win at Atlanta and the Titans’ hard fall at home against Houston triggered the change.
The Patriots have 64% of the public backing on the spread and 65% of the moneyline handle. That’s according to our consensus analysis of the action at Caesars, BetMGM, bet365, Resorts, PointsBet, SugarHouse, 888, FOX Bet and DraftKings.
The Patriots and Titans teamed up to knock the Bills out of first place in the AFC East last week. The Patriots have the best average spread performance this season, beating their NFL odds by an average of 8.8 points over the spread. The Patriots boast the largest positive point differential in the NFL at 123 points, thanks to a lights-out defense, powerful running game and the Offensive ROY performance of rookie QB Mac Jones.
The Titans may be trending in the wrong direction, but they’ve held against the line this season. They are +3.3 on average vs. the spread. More importantly, the Titans 5-0 ATS and outright as an underdog this season.
RELATED: NFL Week 12 Odds & Betting Lines For All Games
Rams, Packers Ready For Show At Lambeau
The Rams and Packers are 1-5 combined in November. Both teams need a breakthrough performance Sunday in the late national game on FOX. This will be on the TV at your favorite airport restaurant or on millions of smartphones for those traveling home.
Anyone making NFL picks here should be aware of how history weighs in favor of the Packers. Green Bay is 7-0 against the Rams ATS and 6-1 straight up their past seven meetings. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-30s and a mild wind, but no rain or snow.
This line has held at Green Bay -1 to -1.5 since it opened. The public is nearly evenly split when it comes to their choice on the spread. The Packers have 56% of the spread handle. The moneyline sentiment is a big heavier on the home team, which has gathered 69% of the early support.
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RELATED: NFL Week 12 Picks & Best Bets For Every Game
Brady Pulls Away In MVP Chase
Tom Brady has begun to break away from the pack in the NFL MVP betting race. Brady, 44, leads the NFL in TD passes and yards passing. The Bucs are in first place in the NFC South. Here’s a look:
NFL MVP Odds
|Tom Brady||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+250 at bet365|
|Josh Allen||Buffalo Bills||+600 at SugarHouse|
|Matthew Stafford||Los Angeles Rams||+1000 at SugarHouse|
|Dak Prescott||Dallas Cowboys||+1000 at SugarHouse|
|Patrick Mahomes II||Kansas City Chiefs||+1100 at BetMGM|
|Aaron Rodgers||Green Bay Packers||+1200 at SugarHouse|
Brady’s surge came after he and the Buccaneers ended a two-game losing streak with a convincing rout of the New York Giants at home. Stafford will need to deliver on the not-quite-frozen tundra of Green Bay to get back into the top tier here.
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Week 12 NFL Betting Trends
Canines Keep Pace
The sportsbooks continued a mini-run of success in Week 11, as underdogs fought to a 7-8 stalemate on the nation's betting apps in Week 10.
After 164 games in 2021, underdogs continue to howl and hold an 93-70-1 (57.3%) edge ATS.
NFL Week 12 Biggest Liabilities
Two Sunday games carry significant exposure in Week 12 based on our consensus analysis:
|ATL at JAX||ATL -1||76%|
|PHI at NYG||PHI -3.5||71%|
Biggest NFL Week 12 Line Movements
|Game matchup||Opening Spread||Current Spread||Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints||Bills -4.5||Bills -6|
|Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots||Patriots -3||Patriots -6.5|
|Seattle Seahawks at Washington Football Team||Seahawks -3.5||Seahawks +1|
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Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints
BUZZ: Both New Orleans running backs Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara are dealing with injuries. Neither player is certain for Thursday. The Saints have not won a game with Trevor Siemian. Taysom Hill and the Saints just agreed to a new contract extension, but Hill is nursing a foot injury.
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots
BUZZ: As noted above, these teams are trending in opposite direction. Vrabel can be Belichick’s Kryptonite. But the Hoodie is working on his own super hero sequel this season.
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Football Team
BUZZ: The results of NFL Week 11 drove these numbers. Washington scored a solid road win at Carolina. The Seahawks were never in it against the Cardinals – who were without Kyler Murray – at home. Seattle continues to search for any offensive mojo with Russell Wilson back at QB.
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